Bill Cara’s Blog for Oct 26, 2010 [See post-close report]

October 26, 2010 by Bill Cara Bookmark and Share

Morning Call [6:48am ET] The US equity market is stuck in the range of S&P 1160-1190. But, with traders focused on the post G-20 policy implementations, still up-in-the-air US mid-term election on Tuesday and pre-QE2 FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday at the usual 2:15pm ET time, doubts and indecision have settled in. Minds are wandering, something anyone can see with a two-minute review of the recent ramblings on this board.

This is not the time to play around. A break-out move of the S&P 500 up to 1220 or down to 1130 is likely within ten days. With the RSI-7 at just under 50 at the close because of final half-hour weakness, there is good reason to be anxious.

blog_oct_26.1.gif

Yes, the index is lifting, but the US banks are under-performing, saddled with top-line weakness from a slowing economy and capital markets trading volume that continues to be a concern, not to mention the impending mountain of class-action lawsuits over mortgage securitization fraud. Moreover, the semi-conductor companies, which have pared costs and jobs to squeeze extra profit from last quarter’s operations, are now guiding us to a weaker fourth quarter.

Yesterday, amid higher equity market prices, there was also a pick-up in the $VIX, closing up +5.70% to 19.85, a tad lower than the intra-day high. Traders ought to be watching for a pop of the $VIX into the 20’s this morning, which, with additional strength in the US Dollar, will bring in some selling pressure.

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In yesterday’s blog, I showed a picture of the Zimbabwe $10 million banknote, suggesting that America seems headed along that road, eventually, as I see it, combining with the Canadian Loonie and the Mexican Peso in what will likely be referred to as the Amero unless the Pound Sterling is thrown into the pool. Who knows? What is known, however, is that the debts of the US are skyrocketing and will likely never be repaid in US Dollars. If the Goldman Sachs’ analyst is right, as opined this week, QE2 will be in the order of $4 trillion, and the Dollar will eventually sink to a level unthinkable a couple years ago.

Do you recall a couple years ago when I warned of Dollars comprised of 20 wooden nickels? Have you checked the price of wood lately? There may have been a pick-up in the past couple months, but it’s still barely half what it was five years ago. Of course, the Fed would never consider a gold-backed Dollar because the price of gold has more than tripled since 2005, and they don’t want to be paying off foreign-owned debt in real money.

For a couple days last week the Dollar looked like it would strengthen, but that was probably a rally off an over-sold condition, perhaps inspired by the Fed to ease the pressure a bit on the participants at the G-20 meetings in South Korea. But, the Daily chart has turned weak again, with the RSI-7 now down at 41.5 and falling, unable to push above 60 during the rally, meaning the rally failed to amount to much.

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At this point, I will not speculate about Tuesday’s election or the FOMC report. There happens to be a lot of important economic reports being issued in the next couple days, but I’m not even sure that amounts to much in the thinking among traders today. There are much bigger issues at hand.

So, let’s watch. Better still; let’s focus.

As for this morning, a stronger Dollar would have been a negative for Equities, Crude Oil and Precious Metals and that was the way the picture was shaping up until 5:30am ET. But for the last hour, the Dollar weakened and the others gathered strength until now the immediate outlook is neutral.

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Have a good day.

Setting up for my weekly contribution to the Nasdaq Community

Follow-up to yesterday’s article to review how the two new portfolios performed on the first day.

wp_nasdaq_oct_26_nasdaq_100.gif

wp_nasdaq_oct_26_china_and_hk.gif

So far, so good.

CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report

Good evening. Patrick here. [6:53pm ET]

A sharply lower Euro (FXE-0.85%) caused modest selling in early morning equity markets but weakness was short-lived, buyers entering the market as the S&P fell under 1180. Once the decline subsided prices floated up towards unchanged, the rest of the day turning into a dull axe fight between disinterested Bulls and Bears (S&P+0.02%).

While the Euro remained under pressure for the entire day, precious metals reversed from early -1% losses to finish the session fractionally higher (SLV+1.08%; GLD+0.02%). The specter of a multi-trillion dollar QE orgy is forcing precious metals buyers to aggressively buy any pullback prior to next week’s big Fed announcement. The price action is telegraphing potentially explosive action in the gold and silver markets once the decision is made public. The long-term case for higher gold prices is almost irrefutable if the monetary authorities maintain current fiscal policies; the only question is whether prices have gotten too high in the very near-term, and a “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction from investors will prompt a sharp short-lived correction and shake out weak hands.

The stock market appears to marking time until midterm election results are known. Portfolio managers want to be invested and may be hedging their bets by parking money in low-risk big-cap stocks with attractive valuations while uncertainty reigns supreme.

Two high-tech, cash-rich, low-debt heavy weights have quietly begun to trade perkier over the past week or so and may be a destination for idle cash. Intel (INTC+0.91%) has broken above 20, finally recapturing its high water mark after earnings were released in mid-October; Microsoft (MSFT+2.90%) regained all the ground it lost after the announced departure of chief software architect Ray Ozzie, and looks technically in a much stronger position than it has in some time.

Outside the occasional earnings-related volatility – witness FFIV and BRCM soaring after the close today – it appears not much will happen prior to the beginning of next week. Support remains S&P 1150 and underneath at 1130; upside targets 1220 and 1250.

Have a great evening.

Login or register to post comments Bookmark and Share Comments Back in the game Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 07:24 #72724

Minds are wandering, something anyone can see with a two-minute review of the recent ramblings on this board.

This is not the time to play around.

OK, got it. Well said.

Login or register to post comments Trade Reversals On The ‘Right’ Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 07:24 #72725

Vad- Thanks again for the valuable insights provided on your last two ‘Catches.’

The mind likes visual shortcuts, and being a creature of habit, I stick to the same analogies I use time and again. In this case, the same old tractor-trailer-

Trade Reversals on the Right:

SUI-CIDE PASSING SIDE

btw, does your website include any essays on the psychology underlying ‘support’ and ‘resistance’ levels?

Login or register to post comments Bill, can’t help but notice the bullish divergence developing Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 07:33 #72726

on the RSI indicator for the $USD. Will be interested to see if retracement respects the rising trendline. $USD/JPY continues to strengthen this am.

Login or register to post comments Jeffrey Saut turning cautious short term Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 08:11 #72727

Even though he is bullish long term (exactly my sentiments).
I don’t know if it this was posed here, in case not:
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

Login or register to post comments Cara 100 Ratings Changes For POMO Tuesday Submitted by Bull Hunter (1528 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 07:55 #72728

Good morning.

POMO Injection Scheduled For Today

9:00 – Case-Schiller 20 City Index
10:00 – Consumer Confidence
10:00 – FHFA Home Price Index

Cara 100 Earnings:

RCL –

After The Close – BRCM, CHRW

——

CVX – Chevron initiated with a Buy at CLSA. Target $100

FCX – Freeport McMoRan upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus based on the company’s decision to increase 2010 production and restart its Chino mine in New Mexico, and continued strong copper purchases from China. Price target $113.

ICE – IntercontinentalExchange downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
citing valuation and high expectations. The firm keeps a $125 price target for shares.

TXN – PT Lifted from $22 to $24 @ Auriga. Sell

——-

“Ain’t it funny how an old broken bottle, looks just like a diamond ring?” — John Prine

Login or register to post comments Barage of topping sentiment data Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 08:21 #72729

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview…

Add that to dollar raising (or at least making an illusion of raising), top in equities is very near.

I’m all ears on signs of reversal from Vad.

FD: Cash except for small SLV/SLW short positions opened yesterday (yet another lower high?).

Login or register to post comments Cara 100 Update Submitted by Bull Hunter (1528 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 09:16 #72730

DOW – Dow Chemical initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna. Target $40

TXN – PT Lifted from $29 to $34 @ Stifel Nicolaus. Buy

——-

RCL Earnings = $1.64 vs $1.57 expected

Case-Schiller minus 0.2%

Login or register to post comments Re: Trade Reversals On The ‘Right’ Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 09:04 #72731 (in reply to #72725)

You are very welcome, glad they help. This topic can be so crucial for traders’ performance and gets so much attention that I decided to do a few trades and write-ups in more depth.

On psychology of support/resistance… not sure if it’s on the website. I include this topic in seminars and did write about it but kill me if I remember where… Upcoming course has a blurb on this, that I remember since it’s very recent 🙂

Login or register to post comments Selling off at the open Submitted by Bill Cara (1855 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 09:21 #72732

Large majority of stocks will open lower. Europe opened down a bit, tried to rally and failed. Equity Futures turned south at 7am ET.

Support for S&P at 1170, 1150 and 1130.

Login or register to post comments HBO Filming “Too Big to fail” movie yest by wall st Submitted by NYUGrad (2964 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 09:28 #72733

All i saw were movie studio trailers with the mug shots of CEO’s taped in color print on the inside of doors. At the top of the door was Vikram Pandit. Movie based on Andrew Ross Sorkin’s Book, from the same title.

If media is any indication, then the markets are going higher.

Ever since Jon Stewart vs Cramer in March 2010, nothing but higher for prices.

Login or register to post comments “Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it” Submitted by Bull Hunter (1528 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 09:32 #72735

— Winston Churchill

A short history of the Weimar Republic:
http://tinyurl.com/56thju

Login or register to post comments Re: Trade Reversals On The ‘Right’ Submitted by Hammer1 (59 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 09:34 #72736 (in reply to #72731)

Vad,

I like your “Catch of the Day” examples. Does this same technique apply to longer time frames say 15min, 60 min, or day charts? If it does, are there any additional precautions that must be taken, or adjustments to the trading strategy?

Thanks

Login or register to post comments SEC on guard Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 09:35 #72737

09:31:03
(US) CFTC releases update on ‘market manipulation’; no specific rules on high frequency trading, open to public comment
– In investigation, finds evidence that efforts have been made to affect silver prices, feels position limits can improve metal markets
– Could remove credit rating references from regulations in efforts to cut reliance upon the standard

Login or register to post comments RBY Submitted by gforce (400 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 09:41 #72738

They are “giving it away again”!

edit:

I wonder if they give until it hurts?

Login or register to post comments Bad weather in Cincy = no golf for me Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 09:51 #72739

Oh well. I’ll hit em next time. Suprise, suprise right back to 1180. Extended weekend is over and I’m a buyer. If we break the 20 day SMA, I’ll change my tone but until then I’m long. Les I replied to your comment in yesterday’s blog and hope to hear a reply. You’re a very smart man and I stand to gain much from your insight. Now let’s make some money!

Login or register to post comments Re: Jeffrey Saut turning cautious short term Submitted by teamonfuego (2248 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 10:02 #72740 (in reply to #72727)

Jack – I read Saut’s post every Monday…he’s one of the few guys I do actually listen to when it comes to market “gurus”. It’s one of the reasons I decided to take off a little risk at the close yesterday. Still about 85% long but I may take a little more off today…I suspect we get a sharp 1-3 day pullback between now and the end of next week as there will be a lot of volatility surrounding elections/Fed announcement. I highly doubt it will be straight up with no big pullbacks so I’d rather have cash available and be ready to buy any dips.

With the dollar looking like it’s stabilizng a bit I think at least a short term pullback is likely until the market deals with it and ultimately goes higher. Much to the bear’s chagrin, the market indeed can and has in the past gone up when the dollar has gone up.

Login or register to post comments Uncle Ben’s POMO Money Submitted by Bull Hunter (1528 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 10:02 #72741

keeping the market from a severe downturn this morning.

IMHO

Login or register to post comments Re: Trade Reversals On The ‘Right’ Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 10:02 #72742 (in reply to #72736)

Hammer, absolutely. Markets are fractal, patterns are similar in any time frame. It’s actually quite amazing to compare charts, 1 min intraday to daily to weekly, and see the same patterns repeating themselves. I can make a dozen screenshots and remove time, leaving price and volume bars only, and it will be impossible to tell the time frame.

What differs is a risk control method. You can afford larger position on intraday trade, you can use margin (providing you have iron stop discipline) – but the longer your exposure to the market the lower size of your position. Normally, your stop will be wider on a higher tome frame (simply by the virtue of support/resistance levels being farther apart on a larger time frame). As soon as you go into overnights, another consideration adds – gaps that leave you without stop protection, so position size must be reasonable – no single trade should be allowed to kill you. I mean, look at some of the gaps… 50% cut overnight? To keep this kind of risk controlled, you monitor material events: earnings time, FDA decisions so you don’t hold into those (favorite kind of gambling for trading masses, all or nothing). If you do want to gamble on those events, make sure you do that with money you are willing to write off completely.

Login or register to post comments Consumer Confidence = 50.2 In October Submitted by Bull Hunter (1528 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 10:08 #72743

Up from 48.6 in September

——

FHFA Home Price Index = 0.4% vs minus 0.5% prior

Login or register to post comments Watching 1177 Submitted by kim. (12 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 10:06 #72744

If the SPX breaks pivot support @ 1177 then looking for a target area of 1160-65. If support holds then expecting SPX to make new high above 1196.14. With a POMO day today it just might do it. Currently short BGZ from yesterday with my finger glued to the left mouse button.

Login or register to post comments Cara 100 Update (Final) Submitted by Bull Hunter (1528 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 10:15 #72745

TXN – numbers upped at UBS through 2011. Company is executing well, despite lower orders. Neutral rating and new $29 price target.

Login or register to post comments … Submitted by baz22 (1439 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 10:26 #72746

starting in ‘ cpst ‘… lot of churn the past 4 trading days.

Login or register to post comments Re: Trade Reversals On The ‘Right’ Submitted by Hammer1 (59 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 10:34 #72747 (in reply to #72742)

So I guess in these volatile times in the macro-economies trading a shorter time frame may be in order… I normally trade in 60 min and day time frames and I feel frustration in holding overnight. Can you provide any solace in trading positions in a 1 or 5 min time frame? I just feel putting a $10,000 position out there has the big boys looking to take me down. Considering your considerable experience in trading the markets…are my fears unjustified?

Thanks for your insights.

Login or register to post comments UPS 401-K match reinstated last week Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 10:37 #72748

I see that as a positive sign for the economy when the large companies start buying back in. They are even back logging it so it was essentially never gone.

Login or register to post comments Was Ron Paul right? Submitted by gforce (400 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 10:48 #72749

OH no, not him again; he predicted the FED would collapse of its own weight even when the also ran(s) were saying everything is just peachy. Kaimu, and others who stand up for the truth of human nature and what that means have if not reiterated similar concepts have spelled out various scenarios. Keynes even predicted his own downfall:

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc101025.htm

edit:
At first blush I am tempted to “reason” that I should not fight the FED which perhaps this was true when the FED was pretty much the market; today however the FED is out gunned and no longer deserves our respect or veneration…they continually drop the ball and cannot even find were it rolled to. I not only fight the FED, I play the FED against itself hubris and all.

Login or register to post comments I want your $$$$$ Submitted by kim. (12 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 10:50 #72750

A trailer for the movie “I Want Your Money”

[SPX: Will be watching this next wave up to begin shortly. As long as it does not exceed 1186.36 then the 1160-65 target is still on the table]

Login or register to post comments Price of Gold Submitted by tmgm501 (39 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 10:51 #72751

Is there correlation from the Euro and the price of lumber and the surprise intrest hike from China to the PMs? Once one rate increase, are others soon to follow? I had some stinking notes from the 70s, unreadable now about Lumber and the Metals. What was I thinking back then?

Login or register to post comments CFTC’s Chilton comes through as promised Submitted by Dr. Strangelove (814 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 11:12 #72752

No wonder the silver spot popped at 10:00 a.m. Mother of all short squeezes is coming.

http://tinyurl.com/2ep3ken

Got silver?!

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m5

Login or register to post comments 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by Milesquare (104 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 11:14 #72753

pretty funny reasons, just shows us how clueless some people are about gold.

http://www.businessinsider.com/reasons-why-the-gol…

this reason was my favorite:

“The US should start selling its gold to pay down its debt.”

why not audit Fort Knox and see how much of the US’s gold is left?

Login or register to post comments Opening BAC @ 11.34 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 11:16 #72754

Vad may disagree, but it appears sellers have finished, and it’s beginning to climb back up. Whether it’s a ‘right-sided’ trade or not- I’ll let him weigh in.

Login or register to post comments Today’s FED Manipulation – $2.5 billion Submitted by Bull Hunter (1528 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 11:19 #72755

http://tinyurl.com/38jotd5

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by Dr. Strangelove (814 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 11:21 #72756 (in reply to #72753)

Ignorance is bliss … until it’s not. Asshat reporting as usual. Move along.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 11:26 #72757 (in reply to #72753)

Milesquare,

Great post. Thanks for the input. For those who are “all knowing” it may seem foolish but to those of us made of clay, not stone will find the truth. Bubble or not.

Login or register to post comments Re: Today’s FED Manipulation – $2.5 billion Submitted by teamonfuego (2248 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 11:38 #72758 (in reply to #72755)

Bull – I know you’re skeptical of all government intervention but if you just accept government support as part of what they do when the economy is weak, then wouldn’t this help you look at things more objectively and not just assume that every move in the market is manipulated? I mean, the goal is to make money right? Our biases tend to get in the way of rational investment/trade decisions….

Login or register to post comments Re: Trade Reversals On The ‘Right’ Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 11:39 #72759 (in reply to #72747)

Hammer,

sure, when volatility increases, your holding time narrows almost by definition – simply because your targets or stops will be hit faster. To make use of quicker moves and finer details on the chart, to control risk tighter and take profits with better precision you will need to drop the time frame too.

By how much – well, there is no fast rule… 1 min is a bit excessive probably, this is domain of the day traders who don’t take their eyes off the screen. There are too many factors involved, most of them personalized – availability during trading hours, tools, skill, personal preferences… can’t really give a blanket one-size-fits-all advice. However trading plan course that will go online very soon will guide you through these and many other choices, to form your own personalized trading approach. Happy to report, we are in final stages of publishing it as Cara Community educational website.

Login or register to post comments Re: Trade Reversals On The ‘Right’ Submitted by Hammer1 (59 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 11:48 #72760 (in reply to #72759)

Great looking forward to it…

Thanks

Login or register to post comments Re: Trade Reversals On The ‘Right’ Submitted by barry (160 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 11:51 #72761 (in reply to #72759)

Actually trading plan response ……GREAT!! I for one will really look forward to it.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by Milesquare (104 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 12:06 #72762 (in reply to #72757)

How much debt is there in the world vs 67ft cube of real money? I think his math is off a bit?

“Warren Buffett is not always right. But when it comes to long-term investment predictions there is probably nobody better than him in the world. Here’s what Buffett recently said about gold in an interview with Ben Stein: “”Look,” he says, with his usual confident laugh. “You could take all the gold that’s ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that’s worth at current gold prices, you could buy all — not some — all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?”

Warren Buffett: Forget gold, buy stocks

http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/18/pf/investing/buffe…

Login or register to post comments Re: Opening BAC @ 11.34 Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 12:18 #72763 (in reply to #72754)

I’m going to wait for a double bottom, but I do like this one. I think BAC is a zero, so I’m playing it a little differently (I’ll buy puts to hedge the ones I write) but it’s also a heartbeat away from being a triple RSI buy, which means it might be good for a nice bounce before it dies. But the reversal – I am not going to take an “aggressive entry” here.

On the one hand, there may be a lot of bad news dribbling out week by week on this one, might end up like BP leaking blood for weeks on end.

On the other, the government or the Fed might jump in and “fix” the problem after the election.

Lots of uncertainty, which means put premium will be high. $0.88 for the Jan 10 puts, IV of 43%.

Login or register to post comments ? Submitted by kim. (12 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 12:32 #72764

Tried to attach a chart of a 5 min bearish wedge building on the SPX. Getting ready to break one way or another. For some reason it will not post it.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by Dr. Strangelove (814 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 12:44 #72765 (in reply to #72762)

Buffett talks his book, Milesquare. Eric King at King World News explains:

http://tinyurl.com/25b3az8

Buffett has a lot at stake in the U.S. and other fiat paper regimes. Of course he hates gold. It’s not rocket science. Gold is a source of security in uncertain economic times like NOW. History show this in no uncertain terms. Trillions in debt and going much higher.

Cheers.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 12:52 #72766 (in reply to #72765)

Buffett has pledged 99% of his wealth to charity. I don’t think he is trying to swindle anyone on this one. Gold down, Dollar up, Market even, Silver up. Face the facts when shown them or do not at your own peril. Follow the yellow brick road is part of the plan not the solution.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by manx928 (62 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 12:53 #72767 (in reply to #72762)

Buffett is a value investor – always was, always will be. He’s arguably right about the value comparison of a room full of gold versus farmland and producing companies, and he’s entitled to his reasons not to buy gold. But I’m a trader and am willing to make money trading anything that doesn’t offend my ethics. Buffett reportedly didn’t lose any money in the tech crash, because he stayed out; ergo he never made any money on it either. He’s entitled to do the same with gold. Me, I’ve made money in gold and I hope to continue to do so or at least preserve most of what I’ve made by applying good trading principles.

Login or register to post comments US Gold UXG is to trade on the NYSE board starting Nov 2 Submitted by Bill Cara (1855 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 12:56 #72768

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-Golds-Shares-to-B…

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by Dr. Strangelove (814 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 13:08 #72769 (in reply to #72766)

jet8400 –

“Buffett has pledged 99% of his wealth to charity. I don’t think he is trying to swindle anyone on this one.”

He’s talking his book to preserve his legacy and loaded up his massive cash position into a railroad (an alternative to gold) to get into hard assets before the inflation, if not hyperinflation. It’s not about swindling. It’s about preservation of wealth and his legacy, my friend. Most very wealthy very old men think that way.

Hey, jet, did you know Buffett separated from his wife decades ago and lived in sin with his mistress until the wife died? I know, we’re all sinners but spare me with the Buffett altruism.

Cheers.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by teamonfuego (2248 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 13:21 #72770 (in reply to #72765)

“Gold is a source of security in uncertain economic times like NOW. “

Don’t you think the run up in gold has priced in uncertainty? And wouldn’t you agree that the most uncertain times have passed? I mean based on the financial markets, which are about 70% higher worldwide, I’d say the worst has passed.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 13:24 #72771 (in reply to #72770)

Ah TOF, we’re what makes a market. Me, I think you’re picking up nickels in front of a steamroller. Or if you’ve done well, quarters. Don’t trip. 🙂

Let’s flip it around. You want to be buying, with the financial markets being 70% higher worldwide? This sounds cheap to you?? Really?

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 13:36 #72772 (in reply to #72769)

Perhaps he is still sinful and will continue to be. That is not my judgment to make. I’ve never met the man or spoken with him. If I ever had the honor, I’m sure I would be stupified by his knowledge. We’re all guilty of eating from tree of knowledge to our own expense. What we do with that knowledge is up to us. If I had no idea about the solar system, how much more beautiful the sunrise would be. Unfortunately I can’t go back. You are smart dr but your love is strange to me indeed.

If you wish to continue the philosophical debate as I would. I suggest we do it on yesterdays blog so as not to use Bill’s blog for something he sees as rambling.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by kaimu (1857 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 13:47 #72773 (in reply to #72762)

ALOHA!!

Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?”

Warren … Warren … Warren … You have fallen for the classic Keynesian misconception on gold and money. First off you confuse “value”. While Exxon creates jobs and wealth, ergo “value” … gold preserves it. Gold is a “store of value” not a creator of it, in the sense of a corporation.

Now … let me reverse on you Uncle Warren … If you bothered to look at a US Treasury Statement in your lifetime then you might have noticed that in FY 2010 the US Treasury “created”(ergo issued) $8,4TRIL USD in marketable debt issues in 365 calendar days.

That equates to 41.37 Berkshire Hathaways(BRK.B)market caps. How long did it take you, Warren, to create one BRK.B? It took the US Treasury 8.8 days to create one! Learn something about value in terms of “money” before you die … You can make money but based on your statements you fail to understand what money is. You broke your #1 cardinal sin of not knowing what you are investing in …

IT WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN’T …

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 13:50 #72774 (in reply to #72773)

Kaimu,

So you’re going to tell Warren Buffet that he has a lot to learn about investing from you? Is that what you’re saying?

Login or register to post comments Re: US Gold UXG is to trade on the NYSE board starting Nov 2 Submitted by baz22 (1439 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 14:05 #72775 (in reply to #72768)

Bill, one person I greatly respect views ‘ UXG ‘ more as a ‘ concept ‘ .. I do not have any at this time ( after the fantastic run from Jan. 09 till a few months ago )… Has Rob laid out a mining schedule yet ? … many thanks..

Login or register to post comments Re: CFTC’s Chilton comes through as promised Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 14:11 #72776 (in reply to #72752)

I guess there is some truth in this old story. Now why would banks try to suppress silver/gold? Another question, how you can successfully manipulate prices for so long?

As for the short squeeze, I think it happened already between end of august and mid october. The pop in silver today is likely the risk trade turned on today in the AM despite rising dollar. Correlated with equities and other assets. I bet the dollar rise will neutralize it in no time, as dollar is picking up its ascend in early PM today.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 14:14 #72777 (in reply to #72762)

Milesquare,

OK, I’ve made my decision. How do I reach Warren to tell him where to send it?

Seriously, why would I decide anything based on his advice or his style? There is no way he can understand what my situation is like anymore than I can relate to his.

I’ve read his biography a couple of times, but wouldn’t trade my life experiences for his — Really!

To each his own.

Login or register to post comments Re: CFTC’s Chilton comes through as promised Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 14:16 #72778 (in reply to #72776)

Keeping a hedge on silver is part of the plan of recovery IMO. The only way to keep gold under control is its cousin. When gold prices do finally come down. Somebody is going to make money off it. GS perhaps? They wouldn’t recommend buying something they are shorting would they. Oh wait…

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 14:34 #72779 (in reply to #72770)

TOF,

I know we’ve traded views on the economy before, but since you asked…

“Don’t you think the run up in gold has priced in uncertainty? And wouldn’t you agree that the most uncertain times have passed? I mean based on the financial markets, which are about 70% higher worldwide, I’d say the worst has passed.”

No, I don’t think so for 15 million unemployed and who knows how many underemployed?

The securitization mess will last for years and the service economy is very light on worker usage as compared to the old manufacturing economy.

If you are only thinking about the stock market and/or short term time frame — I think this too is doubtful and anybody’s guess. There will be no shortage of guesses.

I still think gold is a gold insurance policy whether inflation or deflation.

Edit: My numbers relate to the US, but globally things are similar. China reportedly is having big inflation, everywhere there are more people than needed, demand for many commodities exceeds supply — all are long term issues which are not being dealt with sensibly.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 14:36 #72780 (in reply to #72779)

Grym,

A very possible scenario. If times get as hard and inflationary as some may think. Would you see assault rifles as being a good investment over the coming years? I have a business idea if you’re interested.

Login or register to post comments Re: CFTC’s Chilton comes through as promised Submitted by Dr. Strangelove (814 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 14:44 #72781 (in reply to #72776)

jack black –

“As for the short squeeze, I think it happened already between end of august and mid october. The pop in silver today is likely the risk trade turned on today in the AM despite rising dollar.”

Read this and then tell me what you think about a silver short squeeze.

http://tinyurl.com/2bhohzx

LOL

Login or register to post comments lots of strange stuff today Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 14:47 #72782

The buck up quite a bit, while equities off only slightly, gold flat, and silver positive. With today’s dollar move, I’d expect most of the stuff to be solidly red, but that’s not what is going on. Things are getting strange prior to the double barrel news events of next week.

And bonds are getting hit again today. Don’t tell me folks are getting nervous about holding 20 year treasuries ahead of all that money printing? Might things work differently this time around?

Login or register to post comments Re: CFTC’s Chilton comes through as promised Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 14:54 #72783 (in reply to #72781)

Look at the banner picture of your gold website. Ironic I think. Put your faith in gold monkey, if you so choose.

Even asks the devil at the end where to find more. You want to talk about propaganda and manipulation by the US government. You’re being head faked by the real manipulator. How can you not see this?

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 14:53 #72784 (in reply to #72757)

I started ignoring Altucher after reading of him advocating that the Fed buy stocks to inflate asset prices and on another occasion, his call that this is a V recovery.

Login or register to post comments Re: CFTC’s Chilton comes through as promised Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 14:53 #72785 (in reply to #72781)

Dr. S – Don’t tell me you’re predicting a COMEX default? 🙂

Would that be positive for the price of gold?

Login or register to post comments Re: CFTC’s Chilton comes through as promised Submitted by Dr. Strangelove (814 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 15:05 #72786 (in reply to #72778)

jet8400 –

“When gold prices do finally come down. Somebody is going to make money off it. GS perhaps? They wouldn’t recommend buying something they are shorting would they. Oh wait…”

Is GS shorting PM? Yesterday a GS economist said to expect $4 trillion for QE II starting right after the election.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/10/25/goldman-…

Got gold?

Now, GS is also telling its clients to frontrun POMO and the Fed which means GS is attempting to assist the Fed by loading its passengers onto that runaway inflation train.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-advises-c…

Got silver?

Login or register to post comments Re: CFTC’s Chilton comes through as promised Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 15:09 #72787 (in reply to #72786)

No, I did but I sold it. A little too early but I can’t regret profits. I’m waiting now for a good sign to go big into nat gas. I think that’s a safe investment for the long term. I don’t expect us to come up with more and more natural resources in the future. Too volatile right now in metals for my blood. The old buttocks can only take so much puckering if you know what I mean.

Login or register to post comments Re: CFTC’s Chilton comes through as promised Submitted by Dr. Strangelove (814 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 15:10 #72788 (in reply to #72785)

davefairtex –

“Dr. S – Don’t tell me you’re predicting a COMEX default? 🙂

Would that be positive for the price of gold?”

It would be negative for paper gold bagholders and, after a few days, highly positive for physical gold horders with guns.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by Milesquare (104 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 15:12 #72789 (in reply to #72770)

TF,

ask anyone on the street if they own any gold coins. then ask if they even know where to buy a gold coin.

I get to see a lot of retail client accounts and very few have any gold (funds, stocks, etfs, or bullion)

Gold becomes a bubble when everyone tries to get coins (a la 1978-82)

long way to go before the general public jump on the gold train

Login or register to post comments New Precious Metals ETF – GLTR Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 15:16 #72790

New ETF created to allow investors to obtain exposure to four precious metals in one go. To do this, 0.03 ounces of gold, 1.1 ounces of silver, 0.004 ounces of platinum and 0.006 ounces of palladium will back each share of the fund.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/232389-is-the-new-…

Login or register to post comments Re: US Gold UXG is to trade on the NYSE board starting Nov 2 Submitted by Bill Cara (1855 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 15:16 #72791 (in reply to #72775)

baz22,

I think when Rob decides to announce his production plans, he’ll publicize it. But, that’s an appropriate query from an investor, so why not ask him. He answers his mail.

As for me, I believe the company is much more than a concept stock, and it will bring two small mines into production, but the fact is I just trade his stock, and presently, and for at least several days, I have had a minimal 3.5% portfolio weighting.

I have almost three times that weighting in several names that I don’t think have ever been discussed here because I don’t talk my book.

Login or register to post comments Re: CFTC’s Chilton comes through as promised Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 15:16 #72792 (in reply to #72788)

That’s another thing that irks me with the metals. No guarantee that I actually own anything unless I actually hold the physical. Even then the government could say, yeah all that gold, give it to me. Awww man. Then again priority number one is mission success. I’d rather make money gaming the market if it continues to be this easy.

Login or register to post comments Re: CFTC’s Chilton comes through as promised Submitted by Dr. Strangelove (814 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 15:16 #72793 (in reply to #72783)

jet8400 –

“Look at the banner picture of your gold website. Ironic I think. Put your faith in gold monkey, if you so choose.”

To paraphrase Freud, ‘Sometimes a monkey is just a monkey.’ Know thy enemy for it is a paper tiger.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 15:24 #72794 (in reply to #72780)

Jet4800,

As I see it times are already tough for many people and gold is still a good long term solution IMO, but like everything price is key and we may be in for a pullback — Would you see assault rifles as being a good investment over the coming years? I have a business idea if you’re interested. Buy more then.

“Would you see assault rifles as being a good investment over the coming years? I have a business idea if you’re interested.”

No thank you. They were a good investment back when the Clinton ban was instituted — tripled in a very short time.

I’ll stick with my 45-70 Springfield Trapdoor single shot. The asking price is above the current price for AKs and even AR-15s. Plus I have had it long enough to make at least 500% should I choose to sell. Besides I can still get a 5-shot group under 2″ at 100 yards with it.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by BillySundance (761 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 15:23 #72795 (in reply to #72784)

I won’t go as far as to say Altucher is right or wrong or whatever, but my conclusion is that most of these people that appear repeatedly on CNBC programs would take a strong opinion on just about any topic. That is simply how financial entertainment works – they are set up to disagree on every topic.

But the beauty of investing is that you don’t have to swing at every pitch. For that very reason, I rarely, if ever listen to or read anything produced by CNBC.

I like to follow the money managers with a track record that “speak softly and carry a big stick”. I’d prefer to look through 13-F and 13-D filings of a select group of hedge fund managers that I feel have great market insight (like John Paulson & Donald Smith Co. for examples).

My advice to people on this board that are trying to get into a good routine is to carefully select your informational diet. Watching talking heads on CNBC will only leave you with a bunch of jumbled and abbreviated opinions, confusion, and a headache.

Here is one source that I really enjoy, the weekly PBS program WealthTrack with Consuelo Mack. She is routinely interviewing money managers that have been in the game and have track records behind them. Not only that but they include thoughtful discussion rather than unneccesarily fervent rhetoric and argument.

http://www.wealthtrack.com/

You can download the weekly episodes for free thru Itunes.

For the record, my trading has vastly improved since CNBC was eliminated from the diet.

Login or register to post comments Re: CFTC’s Chilton comes through as promised Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 15:25 #72796 (in reply to #72793)

Yes but how did that work out for the Japanese? Tiger Tiger Tiger. They never stood a chance because they do not have what has made us great from the beginning. Anyone who stands in his way or spites his people will be swiftly struck down. They’ll be wishing all they had to face was a tiger. It doesn’t have to be that way though.

Login or register to post comments Divergence with GLD and PHYS Submitted by barry (160 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 15:27 #72797

Must be a paired trade, there are no options on PHYS (Sprott physical gold trust) so it must be shorting there.

Login or register to post comments new consumer metrics commentary Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 15:31 #72798

Thought one thing in the commentary was quite insightful.

http://www.consumerindexes.com/

“… missing from the above narrative is the potential permanence of the damage inflicted on certain consumers. Those consumers living through foreclosures will have suffered lifestyle and financial reversals that may require a decade or longer to rehabilitate. And even those fortunate enough to stay current with their mortgages may have had their dreams of upward mobility (or mobility of any sort) crushed. In both of these cases the damage will have caused changes in habits (the “new frugality”) that could last decades, if not the rest of their lives. The “Great Depression” of the 1930’s changed an entire generation’s attitudes about banks and spending permanently. While this economic strife may not be as severe, the emotional scars may persist longer than policy makers might wish.”

Read another article today where, at the end, the woman who had just gone through foreclosure after being rejected by the bank for a short sale for $6000 less than her loan amount after months of getting the runaround, stated “I will never buy a house again.”

I think we’re underestimating the psychological impact of this whole thing if we assume once the problems are sorted out, we’re just back to business as usual.

Login or register to post comments Re: US Gold UXG is to trade on the NYSE board starting Nov 2 Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 15:32 #72799 (in reply to #72791)

Its not for the faint of heart. Looking at the recent chart, it has been flat since June, but I noticed its price was over $10 in 2006, over 7.00 for most of 2007, dropped to 0.38 in 2008 and has recovered nicely since then, although it has taken a few haircuts in between. I guess the bigger board will bring in bigger investors.

Login or register to post comments Regulators scramble to keep up with financial sector Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 15:49 #72800

The federal auditor general says Canada’s banking regulators have managed to keep the most potent effects of the global financial crisis at bay, but are scrambling to keep up with the pace of global rules and financial innovation.

“The financial industry continues to develop more diverse and complex financial models and products, which have higher risks,” she says.

“The stability of the banking system could be impacted if Canada’s regulatory framework and supervisory approach do not keep pace with these developments.”

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Canada/20101026/auditor-…

Login or register to post comments Dollar Up, Markets Up Submitted by teamonfuego (2248 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 16:03 #72801

It’s a start. Short term market correlations don’t always hold.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 16:08 #72802 (in reply to #72794)

Besides I can still get a 5-shot group under 2″ at 100 yards with it.

Haha nice, still got it huh Grym. I firmly believe a well armed public is the best deterrent from a government getting away from a government for the people. If we stay armed, they should stay sane. At least in theory it aids as a deterrent.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by tbar (169 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 16:11 #72803 (in reply to #72762)

perhaps he should listen to his pop?

http://www.fame.org/pdf/buffet3.pdf

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by tbar (169 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 16:14 #72804 (in reply to #72789)

back when gold was 1100 the following video shot.

Today at 1340 I think the same would happen.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 16:30 #72805 (in reply to #72803)

Great read, thanks tbar. I’m not saying that hyperinflation or something close to it is not a possibility. History shows us any country can do it. I don’t think that we will make the same mistake because of it. If gold is pricing in much further QE now and sells off when it doesn’t come through. Who could possibly make a bunch of money from it or the market crashing. I’m saying we all need to stick together and keep our heads on a swivel and be cautious. Let’s not think of them as fools or they really will be able to take anything they want. They wouldn’t be running the show if they were.

Login or register to post comments When the bond bubble bursts…. Submitted by NYUGrad (2964 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 16:29 #72806

where will that money flow?

already inflated equities, gold or USD?

Login or register to post comments Re: When the bond bubble bursts…. Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 16:38 #72807 (in reply to #72806)

the bonds will go up before going down. TA on TLT looks bullish to me, if today’s higher low stands, it could be almost Vad-style reversal.

But when bonds eventually deflate (big if if Fed allows for it to happen), money will go into both equities and gold. This is why I’m long term bullish on both.

Login or register to post comments Bill I promise Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 17:00 #72808

This will be the last thing I say of my beliefs unless someone asks me. I don’t think they will after this post if they agree or disagree. I too struggled with God for a long time. I am the son of a pastor and knew the scripture at a very young age. I’ve gone through trembling horrible things in my life and failed to accept God without any proof. So I prayed for God to give me proof with no selfish intentions what so ever and well he gave it to me. I’m so sure of my faith because God spoke to me as clearly as I am to you. You wouldn’t refute that I exist would you? I instantly knew my mistake. The truley righteous do not need proof but have faith anyways. I no longer had a choice because I willingly gave it up. Learn from my mistake I plead with you. You may have never have met a Christian like me and I can’t explain everything. You would wish you never knew! As a favor to me if nothing else don’t know he doesn’t exist. If you claim to know then you will receive no mercy for ignorance. What possible gain would I get from making this up? You don’t even know who I am.

Login or register to post comments Re: When the bond bubble bursts…. Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 17:13 #72809 (in reply to #72807)

jack –

I’m not sure my read on TA on TLT is so bullish. Pull back to the weekly chart, and you’ll see a clear MACD rollover a few weeks back. What’s more, you can’t really call the most recent print a “low” until we’ve actually moved higher! I’m seeing three lower highs in a row, and we’re right at support. A bad day tomorrow and we’re through support, and the close today was ugly.

Of course we could bounce tomorrow, so let’s see how it goes. Right now I’m seeing what could be the start of a stealth bear market in bonds, which if it went on long enough would throw what’s left of the housing market right under the bus.

Down 1.5% today on no news that I could see on a very boring day in equities. Really, what’s that about?

Login or register to post comments Re: When the bond bubble bursts…. Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 17:18 #72810 (in reply to #72809)

Dave,

It looked to me like all the FED was trying to do was stave off a sell off and that was it. No real buyers.

I don’t see how bonds could face a bear market at all. Correct me if I’m wrong but banks are getting the money from the government to lend to the government. I don’t think that will be going out of style in the medium term. They are probably waiting a little for the .25% cut to 0 before their next round. That may be right around the corner. They don’t want us buying them up though. That’s their money.

Login or register to post comments Some tech stocks Submitted by westcoaster (336 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 17:50 #72811

Let’s talk stocks. Had the good luck to hold CTV into buyout by private equity over the weekend. 30% pop on monday morning. Noice. Got killed holding TLAB into earnings this AM. BRCM nice 10% pop after earnings announced after the bell. M&A heating up.
Sprott has some good commentary on gold. Majors have not moved in over a year, and price up 25%. Sees catchup in the hui. Checkout sprott.com

Login or register to post comments Re: Bill I promise Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 17:37 #72812 (in reply to #72808)

jet8400 – “This will be the last thing I say of my beliefs unless someone asks me”

There are a few topics that most often cause trouble, with seemingly no way of having a sane, calm, rational debate on the merits, and religion is one of them. These discussions almost always end badly and seem quite removed from the overall topic of markets and social equity. We could also pick flag burning, gay marriage, prayer in schools, abortion (uh I meant a woman’s right to choose, sorry) or global warming.

So rather than write ANY MORE and risk prolonging this discussion past it’s expiration date, I’m going to express my appreciation for your promise that this is the last you’ll say on this matter.

Login or register to post comments Re: 11 Signs That Gold Is In A Bubble That Is Going To Burst Submitted by kaimu (1857 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 17:38 #72813 (in reply to #72774)

ALOHA!!

So you’re going to tell Warren Buffet that he has a lot to learn about investing from you? Is that what you’re saying?

Y-E-S …

Login or register to post comments Re: When the bond bubble bursts…. Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 17:42 #72814 (in reply to #72810)

jet8400 – “I don’t see how bonds could face a bear market at all”

So seriously, I’m intellectually in the “deflation” camp, so I have to agree with you from a macro perspective. And with QE, it would seem like the Fed will buy everything on the market and then some. And yet, the chart is saying something different. So I’m watching the chart closely. Its one of those “information divergences” Vad likes to go on about.

There are a number of foreign holders of our treasury bonds, yes? Perhaps they are choosing this moment to dump them? That might explain it.

Login or register to post comments Luxury items Submitted by westcoaster (336 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 17:47 #72815

Ever wonder what the margins are on those expensive bags your lady needs a new one of a couple of times a year? 75%!!!!! Yes we’re getting hosed guys….and they never go on sale. I’ve had Coach on watch list for a year. Thought of buying yesterday ahead of earnings. Of course the rich keep buying and guess who love luxury brands? Our favorite creditors and nouveau riche the Chinese! Might be more upside in this asset class.

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/article…

Login or register to post comments Re: When the bond bubble bursts…. Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 17:55 #72816 (in reply to #72814)

Such an attack on the US would be unwarranted and unnecessary. Remember what the US sacrificed with the WWII debts? Is this starting to track a little more or less?

Here’s a trading tip: You can make a reasonable amount of money trading. Especially if you take a little bit at a time. It’s human nature however to get greedy and want a little more. Perhaps it was a little higher and you didn’t sell it and you want at least that price again. After awhile you should learn your lesson and take that first price more often. For some learning lessons isn’t so easy. So us “experienced” traders try to help. Some get it and some give up.

Login or register to post comments Re: new consumer metrics commentary Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 17:56 #72817 (in reply to #72798)

Davefairtex,

How true. My parents and their siblings didn’t ever get completely free of the trauma of those times.

We have some friends in England a little older than my wife and I who were first hit by the depression, then the war and after the war still had to face years of rationing and shortages as after effects. Their parents generation had the devastating losses of family members from WWI as well.

We in this country have been far more fortunate for such a long time it is hard to accept even now how bad this has hit so many. So far we have avoided any massive violent reactions.

Login or register to post comments Re: When the bond bubble bursts…. Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 18:05 #72818 (in reply to #72809)

Dave & Jack,

Got stopped out on my latest venture into TLT, but still think bond rates will pull back for another go-around. Still, I will continue to use stops rather than rely on intuition, expectations or predictions.

I realize Bernanke will continue to do everything he can to avoid a deflationary sinkhole, but not convince he has the power to pull it off.

Login or register to post comments Hopes for the equities binge Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 18:08 #72820

Financial Times – October 25 2010

Since Ben Bernanke set out the options for the US Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy further, equities have been on the sort of bender that would put a hardened alcoholic to shame. The rally really took hold at the start of September, a few days after the chairman of the Fed’s speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and since then the S&P 500 is up almost 10 per cent, which annualises at close to 90 per cent.

This plays to the Fed’s hopes of getting the economy moving faster. The wealth effect, while disputed, is generally thought to lead to rises of spending of a few cents for every dollar richer that households become. Rising share prices should aid the economy, therefore.

However, something else is going on too, and it matters just as much. The expectation that the Fed will indulge in QE2 next week is driving down the dollar almost as fast as it pushes up share prices. The weekend’s inconclusive meeting of G20 finance ministers did nothing to stop the decline.

As a result, international investors in US equities are doing less well than the raw S&P rise suggests. Indeed, in euros the S&P is barely up at all. In yen terms, the entire rally since Tokyo’s unsuccessful foreign exchange intervention on September 15 has been wiped out by the soaring Japanese currency.

This ought to worry US investors too. While only about a third of Americans have a passport, investors’ money travels easily and, in global terms, they were not doing that well staying in the US. In dollar terms, the European market has been roaring ahead, returning half as much again as the US. Even that graveyard of hope, Japan’s Nikkei 225, has outperformed the S&P 500 since September 1 for dollar investors.

Luckily for the Fed, most US investors can ignore the falling dollar in assessing the value of their holdings. Mr Bernanke just has to hope that, as for the alcoholic, the equity binge does not lead to a painful hangover.

Login or register to post comments Re: Bill I promise Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 18:08 #72821 (in reply to #72812)

Amen! (Pun fully intended)

Grym

Login or register to post comments Mortgage Ded for Cred Submitted by loannetter (844 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 18:24 #72822

davefairtex, (continuation of our late night exchange)

We could quibble about tax breaks til the cows come home. I am not in disagreement with the very premise that our entire tax code is baffling and favors the rich while escalating prices for all.

However there is one thing we do disagree on here:

Homes do make something. They create the fertile growing ground for tomorrow’s healthy happy well adjusted human beings who might just feel a sense of community engagement and possibly fairtness toward their fellow man and grow up to contribute to our society and make ‘things’ you like to trade.

If that is not a valuable commodity in this old world what is?

Login or register to post comments Re: When the bond bubble bursts…. Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 18:23 #72823 (in reply to #72818)

Bernanke surely doesn’t have the power to do it himself. It’s going to take a bunch of us and it’s going to take some effort. So let’s give it some. Let Bernanke take the glory, he deserves it for even taking it on. If we fail, don’t you think he may be tarred and beaten? Poor man is supposed to try his best while getting ridiculed by men, women, and probably even some children. He has my upmost respect and any support I can offer.

See how persistent I am. Tell me what you are as persistent about.

On a side note. Let’s make a whole bunch of money. So much we could give half of it away and be fine. Would you eat two burgers or eat one and give the other to a starving person? Which would bring you more joy?

Login or register to post comments Re: Mortgage Ded for Cred Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 18:30 #72824 (in reply to #72822)

As Kaimu mentioned last night, certain countries do not even have such deductions. You don’t have to look as far as Australia – Canada doesn’t either.

Rosenberg commented today – “While the media types loved the fact that residential re-sale activity jumped 10% in September, the real story is that homeowners are in the process of trading down. The move-up buyer has become a very rare breed, if not D.O.A.”.

Login or register to post comments Re: Mortgage Ded for Cred Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 18:36 #72825 (in reply to #72824)

I can’t come up with a number but perhaps some of you could. How much money is the government going to save on deductions now just due to current rates? There’s really not too much interest deduction left with all the refi’s and new loans. We should be saving a lot.

Login or register to post comments Prepping for the election Submitted by westcoaster (336 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 18:43 #72826

In Canada, no mortgage interest deductiblity, but you can sell primary residence tax free. Same effect. People love to promote a rise in house prices so they can harvest those tax free gains. The fact that Chinese are able to finegle their way into Vancouver means there will always be a bid. And by the way, they pay cash. No need for deductions. I would say they are the marginal buyer.

Go to madhedgefundtrader.com for recent posts on when US housing market will recover, why, (demographics) and some insight into the election just ahead.

“In every postwar election, the party in power has lost an average 27 House seats in the midterm elections. The Democrats can lose 38 and still keep control. Obama knew this the day he walked into office. That is why the most radical parts of his agenda, like health care, were front end loaded. Expect to hear much about the President’s surprise, Clintonesque move to the middle in 2011, which was in fact, planned two years ago.

If the Republican celebration that has been ongoing since March turns out to be for nothing, expect the shock to be immediate and global. A Democratic win will take all asset prices down, no matter how much QEII Ben Bernanke throws at them.”

Right or wrong, always has an opinion.

Login or register to post comments Re: When the bond bubble bursts…. Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 18:44 #72827 (in reply to #72823)

See how persistent I am. Tell me what you are as persistent about.

Jet, must you make it personal? Please express your point of view without challenging people like that. Grym has a right to dislike Bernanke just as much as you to like him.

Login or register to post comments Re: Mortgage Ded for Cred Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 18:50 #72828 (in reply to #72822)

loannetter – “Homes do make something. They create the fertile growing ground for tomorrow’s healthy happy well adjusted human being”

Certainly. But we differ on the requirements of home. To me, a home comes not from who owns (or owes on) the structure, but the amount of love within. The financial construct means nothing. Long ago we wandered the plains with no fixed place of residence. Yet does that mean there was no feeling of “home” creating all the things in the community you value so highly?

Are you saying that if you don’t owe a great deal of money to a bank (who didn’t really lend it in the first place, but gets to collect the interest anyway) for the next 30 years, you will not really have a home? I claim that’s just societal programming. Very well executed, too – billions in advertising reinforcing this concept. I wonder who benefits?

Buying a house is fine. But its not required to make a home – its optional, not mandatory.

There are small things and big things wrong with the tax code. This is a big one, at least by my calculations.

Login or register to post comments Re: When the bond bubble bursts…. Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 18:53 #72829 (in reply to #72827)

Very true. When typing like you’re talking it can be interpreted different ways. More of a food for thought. Not a fair statement looking at it now, I’ll admit. I figure most people who don’t like to hear what I have to say have already ignored me. I can’t just say, they’ll ignore me anyways so I might as well not at all. There was a beautiful chance there. Maybe next time. For instance, I don’t know about you but if there is a gorgeous girl in the room and as I look around and notice her looking me in the eyes. My natural reaction is to look away. It’s just human nature I guess.

Login or register to post comments Japan surely won’t be selling any bonds Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 19:15 #72830

I know a real quick way to save on money. Stop providing them protection. Perhaps they’ll want to reinvest. The same with taxing the top 2% more for a couple years. I hope they have dreams someone is in their house and they call 911 to hear “We’re sorry, you were right, all of this just isn’t worth the cost, Have a good day”. Perhaps they’ll be willing to suffer for a couple years while we get off the ground. Yes it could be put back into the economy but that’s not the problem IMO. Spreading hate is one of them which is what caused this whole conversation to start in the first place. Therefore deemed necessary regardless if Bill kicks me out or not. I’m telling the truth.

Login or register to post comments Re: Mortgage Ded for Cred Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 19:16 #72831 (in reply to #72825)

For itemizing taxpayers for FY 08:

48M returns were itemized, average AGI 118k
Mortgage Interest deduction: 470B, 38M returns
Taxes Paid (state, local, property) deduction: 467B, 47M returns
Taxable Income: 4,076B, 44M returns
Total Tax: 833B, 40M returns

Login or register to post comments Re: Mortgage Ded for Cred Submitted by steveo (140 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 21:03 #72832 (in reply to #72831)

Good data, puts things in perspective

Login or register to post comments Re: Mortgage Ded for Cred Submitted by steveo (140 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 21:05 #72833 (in reply to #72828)

very well executed….the American Dream….to be enslaved with debt

Login or register to post comments Blue Skies Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 21:12 #72834

http://tinyurl.com/y62dtgc

So bears are trying to mark the top with their rants. Close, but no cigar. From experience, I know the difference between ‘down-but-still-able-to-talk-about-it’ “capitulation” and ‘I-saw-this-coming-why-didn’t-I-get-out-while-I-was-still-able-to-talk-it-[pound the table]-screw-this-[close all shorts walk out to the backyard]-I’m-out’ Capitulation.

One more pull out the stops clear the house steamroll the bears rally.

Nothing but blue skies do I see.

Login or register to post comments Fleck, today, was talking Submitted by baz22 (1439 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 21:14 #72835

” to a friend who is pretty well plugged in ” whom is thinking that B.B. & Co. will deploy anywhere from $ 1 trillion to $ 1.5 trillion, perhaps in $ 100 billion/month shots… either way, big inflation will not be far behind…

Login or register to post comments VXX getting much needed cosmetic surgery- 1:4 reverse split Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 21:34 #72836

http://tinyurl.com/278ly2s

Just in time.

Login or register to post comments hi toby, Submitted by baz22 (1439 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 22:00 #72837

well, hell, while I had my sights on the parent company ( ‘ cytr ‘ – posted on Sept. 2 ) ‘ rxii ‘ snuck away ! waiting to see if she can retrace to $ 3/ish… anyway, things kinda quite, but as you know, that’s when unexpected things happen ! best, baz.

Login or register to post comments Re: hi toby, Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 22:13 #72838 (in reply to #72837)

Well I guess I’m long till election day. Here’s the headlines “So was the tea party necessarily good for Rupublicans this election? Anyways in the stock market!” No more games for now. I’m going to try and give these guys some days off!

Cheers

Login or register to post comments Re: Bill I promise Submitted by knifecatcher (334 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 23:21 #72839 (in reply to #72808)

jet,

I’m not a frequent poster, but I follow this blog closely and have learned a lot from it over the past few years. I have appreciated your posts and observations. But, if history is any indication, you are at high risk of burning out due to the volume and nature of your posts. Please just relax a little bit with the religion-oriented material, etc. I hope that you will stick around this blog for the next few years- we need to stick together and we need all the help we can get…

Regards,
KC

Login or register to post comments Re: When the bond bubble bursts…. Submitted by federico (30 comments) on Tue, 10/26/2010 – 23:46 #72840 (in reply to #72829)

Jet Re: BILL I PROMISE

Jet, I commend you for having the guts to speak your mind. That’s often not easy to do in these matters. You felt you had an obligation, and so you did the right thing in speaking up. It’s irrelevant what I or anyone else believes. You were not forcing anything on anyone or being hateful…. the opposite in fact. Your motives were good and I respect you for wanting to help others and being willing to take heat. Also, there is a lot of extraneous talk in CC… but it’s often a good thing. No harm no foul.

EDIT: For the record I believe in God. Sometimes I think of it as everything being “of God”.

Login or register to post comments Re: Bill I promise Submitted by Ross (389 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 00:41 #72841 (in reply to #72839)

Out out, damned inkjet spot!

Mr. Jet must be a copier salesman at heart since his posts are only modest variations of the ‘repeat-repeat-repeat’ button found on most models of an HP electronic digital daemon.

To be fair and balanced like Dan Rather ‘I report All the news that fit my views’ the Cara community might wish to exercise the early Greek democratic custom of casting ostracism shards into the communal polis pot. If you want a faster count, twink the ‘ignore user’ thingy. Problem solved.

I think we may have lost this wondering soul. The boy might have been saved had the Gideon society sandwiched just a bit of Schumpeter in the middle of the St. James version of salvation while he was watching an ‘adult situation’ film on pay for view ‘Let’s all have a happy ending’ TV.’

Aside from that, me and God are mates. I’ve got his email address but I promised not to tell…………….

Login or register to post comments Re: Bill I promise Submitted by MtnGntx (189 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 01:04 #72842 (in reply to #72841)

Surely I am next to go…..

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ahem… i might be gone already….hmmm….hehe

Login or register to post comments Re: Bill I promise Submitted by knifecatcher (334 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 01:07 #72843 (in reply to #72842)

Hope not. Enjoy your posts…

Login or register to post comments baz22/bio stocks Submitted by tobyt (86 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 01:11 #72844

i remember the count-down charts for the last 100 days in Viet-nam had a vulture perched in a descimated tree looking down at the shell-holes saying “patience my ass, I want to kill something”…….reminds me of this market…….my PBR (going to be a long term holding) is perking up and pays a dividend soon, EXAS has its meeting this week on the colon test and I am really becoming entralled with the long term accumulation pattern on ASTM. thanks again for bringing it to my attention. The tub surround is finished except for one-piece//// chinese manufacturing/QC took a hit as the last piece of 12×12 ceramic tile was nowhere near square……back to lowes….things holding but kinda slow in austin, the zone manager told me that people now think buying a one gallon can of paint is a remodel.keep safe

Login or register to post comments Re: Blue Skies Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 01:12 #72845 (in reply to #72834)

I don’t know 2nd, I think we might see some of this tomorrow…

Login or register to post comments Re: Blue Skies Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 01:44 #72846 (in reply to #72834)

2nd – “Nothing but blue skies do I see.”

Ha. Wait 15 minutes, and you’ll change your view again. 🙂

Regardless of this being the top or not, Something Interesting will happen on one of GDP Friday, Election Tuesday, or Fed – Thursday I think it is. Imagine if GDP Friday comes out with estimates that are more in keeping with Consumer Metrics than the happy stuff the market has been smoking to date? Bad news on GDP Friday, Dems hold the house on Election Tuesday (now that would be a shocker), and Ben prints 4 trillion on Thursday. Something sure to delight everyone. Down, down more, then up.

Sheesh. I have no idea how it will turn out.

I’m a bear. Does this count as a rant?

Login or register to post comments I will stick around Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 02:13 #72847

Thank you for allowing me to get that out. I mean no harm. If it did you any good, thank Derrin Albert. If you don’t know what I’m talking about I suggest you do not search. No one corrected me telling the future! We can’t get rid of all the Republicans, how would we ever balance a budget from a soap box. Haha all in good fun. I am taking a little time off and not even watching. I don’t care if I lose money or make it. I don’t plan on taking a dime with me where ever my fate lies. Best of luck and I will speak with you again but only about financial markets. I made a promise.

Login or register to post comments Re: When the bond bubble bursts…. Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 05:09 #72848 (in reply to #72807)

jack black, I’m even less bullish on TLT than Davef. 10 year yields just broke resistance. 20 year yields are more bullish. The high correlation suggested by FX360 between the 10/2 year yields and USD/JPY suggests this currency relationship is about to reverse.

The USD/JPY in various time frames cautions that a bounce could be in the making. Even the short term yields, which the Fed is arguably able to influence the most easily, is pulling itself off the mat. Something to watch. Bullish? Not my opinion, but that’s JMO.

Looking at all the currency relationships in a daily time frame on FINVIZ, it’s time to be cautious about a number of reversals in key currencies:

http://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=ALL&tf=d1

AttachmentSize ust20y.png 31.5 KB ust10y.png 30.32 KB ust2y.png 28.42 KB Login or register to post comments certain shame of the ongoing commodity boom Submitted by shamblin (3 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 03:06 #72849

I like this article by John Tamny at Forbes blogs. Some writers clarify, others cloud. This article clarifies.

http://tiny.cc/7tr38

Login or register to post comments Re: When the bond bubble bursts…. Submitted by Telestar3d (423 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 03:12 #72850 (in reply to #72840)

Yea, his name is Lloyd Blankfein.

Login or register to post comments futures 3 am – Asia red Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 03:16 #72851

S&P-6.70 / -0.57%
Level1,176.10
Fair Value1,182.20
Difference-6.10
Nasdaq-6.25 / -0.30%
Level2,109.75
Fair Value2,116.74
Difference-6.99
Dow-53.00 / -0.48%
Level11,071.00

I’m getting sick of this groundhog day experience looking at global markets daily, but some days do offer a glimmer of future possibilities. I think today might be one of them.

Hang Seng:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/npage/2_3051.html…

ASX:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/npage/2_3051.html…

Note the movements on ASX. Big thrust up which you don’t wanna buy, followed by big thrust down. Erratic movements that try to suck punters into making false bets – trading I want to avoid. Ditto Shanghai.

The strongest Asian bourses – Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, India – all hesitate or are in consolidation mode. This is where the hot money is I assume, so I will be watching these ones going forward to see if traders withdraw bids.

On the economic front, Korea’s economy has clearly contracted this last quarter:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SKoreas-economic-gro…

Login or register to post comments futures 5am – Europe red as Korea takes the headlines Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 05:15 #72852

S&P-7.50 / -0.63%
Level1,175.30
Fair Value1,182.20
Difference-6.90
Nasdaq-6.25 / -0.30%
Level2,109.75
Fair Value2,116.74
Difference-6.99
Dow-48.00 / -0.43%
Level11,076.00

Sell the news? Let’s see how the US markets react on opening. French banks red. Euro autos dumped (after all, if Korea can’t move top quality cheap cars, what do the Euro auto manufacturers have? 🙂

As of 5am the FINVIZ futures map has a lovely shade of red

AttachmentSize FINVIZ futures 5am 128.7 KB Login or register to post comments POMO opertions scheduled every other day till election Submitted by tobyt (86 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 07:09 #72853

THIS WAS THE CONCLUSION FROM THE PRUDENT CAPITALIST BLOG AFTER HE ANALYZED FED OPS……………….. So while there is no reason to believe that these operations actually make us all better off there is considerable evidence supporting the idea that these operations correlate with periods of assets being “higher than they otherwise would be” – in other words, assets tend to be disconnected from their fundamentals during these Fed operations.I’ll be honest with the reader. When I ran this data I was really hoping that I would find evidence showing that the POMO’s have no impact on market direction. The conclusion is unsettling for obvious reasons. And while this might be nothing more than a case of datamining the evidence is convincing that the Federal Reserve is helping to boost equity prices without creating an equally positive change in SUSTAINABLE economic growth. I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but when I’ve got the Manager of the System Open Market Account for the Federal Open Market Committee telling me that he wants to keep “prices higher than they otherwise would be” combined with this evidence it makes it very hard to believe that the Fed isn’t attempting to outdo Bernie Madoff. THE WUOTE ‘HIGHER THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE’ IS DIRECT FROM FED WHILE TALKING ABOUT POMO.

Login or register to post comments What’s the news in Natgas? Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 07:29 #72854

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=h1

12% overnight

Login or register to post comments Jesse’s providing a TA approach to $POG pullback Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 07:36 #72855

Keeping it in the back of my mind, along with Bill’s thoughts as I look to get on the gold train long term shortly.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Login or register to post comments Re: When the bond bubble bursts…. Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 09:22 #72858 (in reply to #72823)

Jet 8400,

My comment: “I realize Bernanke will continue to do everything he can to avoid a deflationary sinkhole, but not convince he has the power to pull it off.”

I assume this is what you are referring to when you state: “Bernanke surely doesn’t have the power to do it himself. It’s going to take a bunch of us and it’s going to take some effort. So let’s give it some. Let Bernanke take the glory, he deserves it for even taking it on.”

Glory? A bunch of us?

There is no way “we” are going to prevent deflation (or inflation) by our actions. My point being that he thinks he can — as outlined in his “unconventional measures” speech of 2002.

If there is in fact a bond bubble it will be due to his actions, or more accurately his inaction (not raising rates) as did Alan Greenspan. He is experimenting to prove an academic theory. It cost him nothing, since he is using taxpayer’s money and future living standard. He’s never run a business and believes himself to be an expert on the Great Depression and therefore sees his plan as a winner.

While I am willing to present my alternate views — I am not “married” to any outcome. The truth will eventually be known regardless of opinions or beliefs.

I am not generally a day trader, but if you are I suggest you park your plans for the markets and do as Vad recommends — trade what you see, not what you want, wish for, or expect.

I am persistent about protecting my principal for my wife and myself. My goal is to make at least what we must spend each year.

Login or register to post comments Re: Mortgage Ded for Cred Submitted by loannetter (844 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 11:44 #72884 (in reply to #72828)

davefairtex,
The tax deduction for homeowners may account for some people bothering to file a tax return these days. It’s just a way for average folks to expense their cost of investing. Owners of rentals get to expense (deduct) their mortgage interest as an operational cost. Without this deduction (and evil mortgages) your home builders would be pressed to sell anything! The real estate industry is in bed with the IRS and one might argue that housing drives our economy!

Login or register to post comments SVNT/baz/t Submitted by tobyt (86 comments) on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 12:15 #72888

this stock does look very interesting, they tend to bounce around after getting slammed and this is one of the more interesting ways to fill and exceed the gap it left going up a month and a half ago from 14-18…near the lows for the last year w/what appears to be a great product, would personally buy 1/2 of what I wanted to own in the $11.90s and sell both sides of the 12s for the next 3 weeks to acquire/lose the remainder. the $1.55 plus is just to high a % return for the likes of me to pass up…….

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