Bill Cara’s Blog for Oct 22, 2010 [See post-close report]

October 22, 2010 by Bill Cara Bookmark and Share

Morning Call [8:18am ET] I have long advocated the study of inter-relationships in capital markets and the causal factors that underlie price trends and cycles so that when you study a particular price series, like the US Dollar index ($USD) for instance, you can, with experience, anticipate change. This acquired skill is what separates securities traders from financial investors.

If you are interested, there is a Wiki article on Causality worth reading.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causality

As I frequently point out, due to multifactorial causality in capital markets there are no absolutes, so there are no hard and fast rules. There can only be guidelines. The analytical tools we use to study price trends and cycles, for good reason, are called “indicators”.

The correlations of certain price series data in capital markets are at times fairly precise and at times quite fuzzy. The times they are most fuzzy is when certain interventionist monetary authorities attempt to dominate the natural flow of prices for domestic economic policy reasons. Without pointing fingers, that fuzzy picture is what has been occurring with regularity in recent years.

As most of us are aware, the major problem in capital markets and the global economy today is the state of disarray of the currency market. After a series of preliminary meetings and diplomatic exchanges between countries, the G-20 monetary authorities are meeting again today and through the next couple days in South Korea to attempt a resolution.

As things stand, traders are perplexed, awaiting the outcome of this potentially important conference. In the meantime, I thought I’d make a point that when markets are unstable, causality studies become less important to traders who then simply go with the flow.

As an example of the frequent fuzziness in markets inter-relationships, I will use the $USD:$GOLD charts below. The normal relationship is Dollar up: Gold down. You will note however by examining the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of $USD and $GOLD that there are lengthy periods where the inverse relationship does not hold.

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As the day starts, the futures market is indicating a marginally softer Dollar and stronger Gold and US Equity indexes. None of that matters of course until we get the word from South Korea this weekend. As I say, it’s a difficult time for traders.

Yesterday I pointed out that “The overall picture really is one of an equity market being range-bound, with a bias to a downside breakout. Expect that traders will sell the high end of the range.” Nothing has changed in a day, but we are all looking to the G-20 for answers.

Have a good day.

CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report

Good evening. Patrick here. [8:40pm ET]

One of the first things equity traders should do each morning is to review the overnight futures trading, writing down the session high and low and comparing the range and volume to historical norms. It takes volume and energy to move markets; if the overnight session is dull and listless expect a narrow-range day session to follow, assuming there are no major economic reports scheduled to be released.

If one expects a range-bound session (like today) then obviously break out strategies have a low probability of success; traders instead should focus on mean-reverting strategies as prices test outer support and resistance zones. Tracking the overnight statistics – and measuring the current first hour activity against normal first hour behavior – can get a trader quickly into the natural ebb and flow of the market, increasing the odds of profitability as the day progresses.

Today was not even worthy of comment as both traders and investors sat on the sidelines, perhaps waiting for the G20 communiqué on future economic growth and a response to growing volatility in the currency markets. No doubt it is difficult for multinational corporations to efficiently run their businesses when economic uncertainty reigns supreme and currency fluctuations are off the charts.

With the midterm elections looming and the Federal Reserve QE II announcement imminent, stock market volatility will be increasing in the very near future. Once the news is out – whatever the outcomes – money managers will be able to assess the markets’ responses, and quickly make the proper adjustments to their portfolios.

Remember, it is not the news but the reaction to the news that will determine the future direction of stock prices. At this point it is impossible to predict how the market will interpret the news (traders should burn those damn forecasting hats anyway). Clearly some QE is being priced into the market already; if the number exceeds 1 trillion (coupled with a return of the House and Senate to the Republicans) and equities begin to sell off, holding long exposure could turn out to be a very risky proposition.

Conversely, an opening news-based sell off failing to gain traction and quickly reversing to the upside, could fuel a substantial performance-chasing melt-up into year’s end. No one knows for sure despite what the so called experts tell us on Tout TV. Having no directional bias allows you to rationally observe the price action and confidently take your set up without any emotional baggage.

Plan trade, see trade, take trade, place stop.

Sounds simple but is not easy; all your psychological weaknesses tend to gang up on you and undermine your results.

Having no preconceived notions about a particular outcome will free you of this burden and make trading more profitable and enjoyable.

Have a great weekend.

Login or register to post comments Bookmark and Share Comments Cara 100 Ratings Changes For POMO Friday Submitted by Bull Hunter (1528 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 08:28 #72426

Good morning.

POMO Injection Scheduled For Today.

10:00 – Existing Home Sales

Cara 100 Earnings:

EXC (1.11 vs 1.12)
SLB (.70 vs .69)

——-

AMZN – PT Lifted from $162 to $185 @ Oppenheimer. Outperform

AMZN – PT Lifted from $135 to $145 @ Kaufman Bros. Hold

CAT – Caterpillar downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James. Price target $85

FCX – Freeport McMoRan downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord based on valuation. Price target raised to $98 from $93

PBR – Petrobras upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS citing valuation. Price target $31.69
UBS upgraded Petrobras citing valuation. Price target $31.69.

——

“Politicians are like diapers. They both need changing regularly and for the same reason.”

Login or register to post comments question for Vad re: catch of the day yesterday Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 08:37 #72428

You keep saying: don’t fight the tape. This is something I need to learn as I tend to try finding reversals based on contrarian approach and it doesn’t work well all the time of course which can be expensive, even with stops.

However, the trade your featured was long TNA while TNA was falling fast. Wouldn’t you make more money in TNA staying short TNA yesterday? I’m confused. Thanks!

Login or register to post comments PMI GOLD REVERSE SPLIT Submitted by BOB 47 (95 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 09:09 #72429

PMI GOLD REVERSE SPLIT , 1 FOR 2 .

Login or register to post comments Cara 100 Update Submitted by Bull Hunter (1528 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 09:18 #72430

AMZN – Upgraded to Buy @ Caris & C0. PT Lifted from $140 to $190

AMZN – PT Lifted from $181 to $188 @ RBC. Outperform

FCX – PT Lifted from $120 to $125 @ Dahlman Rose. Buy

FCX – PT Lifted from $90 to $100 @ RBC. Outperform

MCD – PT Lifted from $76 to $85 @ RBC. Sector Perform

SNDK – PT Lowered from $33.50 to $31.50 @ Wedbush. Neutral

Login or register to post comments Re: question for Vad re: catch of the day yesterday Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 09:28 #72431 (in reply to #72428)

jack,

decision-making process is multi-sided… For instance: what do you do if a drop occurred in a fashion that doesn’t allow a read in terms of your system? Not every movement can be read by every approach, right? Hunting for a trade, you look for those that occur within your setups. Or, your trading vehicle can’t be shorted (which is the case with TNA for many brokerages, you can go long TZA instead but that’s different a bit)?

You could theoretically make more money in TNA short but since there was no according setup giving you clear entry signal and you got clean nice long setup instead, you go with long. Simple as that. Any trading decision is a compromise, or a few. One could make a lot in AAPL or GOOG or NFLX for instance, but is risk control possible on those for a relatively big position?

I don’t necessary see trading reversals as fighting the tape – IF there is nice proven tested setup for the reversal. It’s when one stubbornly buys any new low or pause in selling, arbitrarily assigning price for entry, based on ideas like “it’s 10% from high (as if there is some rule limiting drop to certain percentage) or even more vague idea of “it’s too low, gotta bounce” that I object strongly.

Looking at both trades in yesterday’s COTD, you can see clear setups with nice tight risk control, classic chart patterns with defined trigger and stop. That’s following the system based on tested and proven tape reading approach.

Login or register to post comments Watching closely Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 09:58 #72432

The FED could either put the squeeze on or sell off here.

Login or register to post comments Cara 100 Update (Final) Submitted by Bull Hunter (1528 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 10:03 #72433

AMZN – price target boosted at Credit Suisse to $145 from $115. In-line 3Q earnings, company appears to be in a reinvestment cycle. Maintain Neutral rating.

AMZN – estimates cut at Barclays. AMZN 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates dropped to $2.41 and $3.18, respectively. Strong holiday season expected, but will likely come with higher costs. Maintain Overweight rating and $180 target.

CAT – price target boosted at Barclays. CAT price target increased to $85 from $76. Solid 3Q10 beat and raised outlook for the remainder of the year on continued end-market momentum. Maintain Equal Weight rating.

CAT – estimates, target boosted at Morgan Stanley. Shares of CAT now seen reaching $100. Estimates also increased, as better engine sales are driving higher margins. Overweight rating.

COST – estimates, target raised at Morgan Stanley. Shares of COST now seen reaching $71. Estimates also increased, given renewed store and membership fee growth. Overweight rating.

DIS – Target raised at Morgan Stanley to $43. Company can generate 17%-20% annual earnings growth over the next two years. Overweight rating.

FSLR – estimates boosted at Barclays. FSLR 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates increased to $7.60 and $8.55, respectively. Expecting strong 3Q10 results with upbeat 2011 outlook. Maintain Equal Weight rating and $140 price target.

MCD – estimates, target boosted at UBS. Shares of MCD now seen reaching $86. Estimates also upped, as sales growth is accelerating. Buy rating.

NE – estimates, target upped at Citigroup. NE estimates were boosted through 2011. Company is cutting operating costs. Buy rating and new $42 price target.

NOK – price target higher at Barclays. NOK price target lifted by a dollar to $14 as 3Q was above expectations. Maintain Overweight rating.

NUE – estimates, target lowered at Citigroup. Shares of NUE now seen reaching $53. Estimates also cut, to match the company’s new guidance. Buy rating.

SNDK – estimates increased at UBS through 2011. Company is realizing a higher gross margin. Buy rating and $50 price target.

Login or register to post comments shorted QQQQ in the opening peak Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 10:16 #72434

small position only. My “setup” is negative divergence on RSI and downward spike in VIX.

Login or register to post comments VXX > XXX Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 10:19 #72435

They should rename VXX and call it XXX- the adult version of the Nigerian 419 scam.

Login or register to post comments Re: VXX > XXX Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 10:33 #72436 (in reply to #72435)

It is a bit like the markets lottery ticket. To win you have to play. Good luck.

Login or register to post comments Re: VXX > XXX Submitted by goldbug58 (146 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 10:34 #72437 (in reply to #72435)

VXX down roughly 45% in 2 months. It had a rough Sept and Oct. I don’t really understand it myself. Opened DIA Dec 108 puts at 1.93, very minute position, a hedge really, at best; if this is a bullish market then there should be more strength in the blue chips (i.e. CAT, HSY) and I don’t see it lately, but maybe it’s around the corner. Still preferring a bearish stance, guess I’m just stupid, stubborn, or both.

Login or register to post comments Re: VXX > XXX Submitted by tbar (169 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 10:40 #72438 (in reply to #72435)

hou has first dibs I believe.

Oil is with 5$ of the price that hou.to premiered back in 2008 at $ 89.

now hou is at 6.45. Even on good oil rallies it barly moves up at all.

AttachmentSize ouch.png 28.72 KB Login or register to post comments Re: VXX > XXX Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 10:36 #72439 (in reply to #72435)

If you ignore VXX, and look at VIX, it’s making higher lows in the last several days. Just like early January or late April 2010.

Login or register to post comments Re: VXX > XXX Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 10:41 #72440 (in reply to #72436)

I’m actually thinking about reopening TZA/VXX. But I’ll be attending a convention today.

So the choice is between giving undivided attention to the seminars, or opening positions in TZA/VXX and checking prices every 5 minutes.

I have to do the right thing and walk away. (Reminds me of the time Jack Nicholson threw his PC out the window, saying ‘How am I supposed to get any work done?’ I think he was referring to another kind of obsession, though.)

Login or register to post comments Ontario Securities Commission has a new Chair Submitted by Bill Cara (1855 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 10:43 #72441

FAIR Canada (the Canadian Foundation for the Advancement of Investor Rights) has welcomed the new OSC Chair, Howard Wetston. Sounds like good news.

http://faircanada.ca/top-news/welcome-back-mr-wets…

Login or register to post comments evidence from institutuional buying that this should be a top Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 11:00 #72442

in the top 2 charts here: http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/

I actually attended a presentation by one of those institutional fund manager yesterday and they were giddy how they almost recoup stock market losses this year (dumb money).

One more thing, In June 2009 silver/gold selling preceded market slide by a weak or so.

Login or register to post comments correct me if I am wrong, Submitted by baz22 (1439 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 10:50 #72443

but I believe most mutual funds have 10/30 as year end fisical dates… am watching, very closely, some recent ( 6 month ) IPO’s … cold see some unique moves, in either direction, in closing the books…

Login or register to post comments glad there were no BAL to short Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 10:54 #72444

because it would be a loosing trade today. It went up again. This bubble is hard to burst, but looks like double top is forming.

Login or register to post comments Re: VXX > XXX Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 10:56 #72445 (in reply to #72440)

2nd,

Maybe throw some limit orders out there just to see if they hit get you in at a good level. TZA at yesterdays low or something.

Login or register to post comments CLRT up 33% on news Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 11:08 #72446

Darn, I was watching this company and planned to jump in when it drops some. Now it’s too late I guess.

Login or register to post comments Sold remainder of TZA Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 11:09 #72447

Looks like we’re going to see a pop.

Login or register to post comments Re: shorted QQQQ in the opening peak Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 11:44 #72448 (in reply to #72434)

Looks like I’ll be stopped out soon from this trade. Weird, stocks and even SLV/SLW are going up while dollar does the same. Time to cover PM shorts?

Correction: SLW+GDX goes up, SLV+GLD flat.

Login or register to post comments Re: PMI GOLD REVERSE SPLIT Submitted by ez_money (53 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 11:34 #72449 (in reply to #72429)

Dang, I thought I just got rich. 🙂

Login or register to post comments more: Foreclosure blow by blow by blow… Submitted by loannetter (844 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 12:20 #72450

http://www.thinkbigworksmall.com/mypage/archive/1/…

must watch!

Login or register to post comments Lundin Mining Submitted by Luggie (246 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 12:29 #72451

Hi All – Nice move on this one over the last few days with resolution of contract disputes between operator Freeport and the Congo government. Lundin is the minority partner with Freeport on the huge Cu/Co Tenke Fungurume deposit. Happy Trading

Login or register to post comments Will Geithner’s charm carry the day…will pigs fly? Submitted by gforce (400 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 12:31 #72452

They will if you let them:

G is receiving a cool reception:

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2010/10/22/US-plan-for-trad…

Login or register to post comments Banks are getting healthier Submitted by gforce (400 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 12:44 #72453

I do not think so:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/four-facts-bang-j…

Login or register to post comments hi, toby Submitted by baz22 (1439 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 12:45 #72454

how is the weather in Texas?… cool and crisp in NC.. The old house ( 1938 ) I bought, is a real joy to work on… Two months ago, I had removed part of a wall ( 1/4 ” sheetrock ! ) and found a date written, in June, 1954 on the wallpaper ( the old glue-down kind ).. Anyway, keep that piece for reasons unknown.. Well, last week the owner from that time frame pulled-up in the side drive and introduced himself ( Hoyle ). He is 72, and told me all about the house and how he fell in love, and married, the girl living there with her parents. Here is where it got interesting. Seems he went to the Army in 1950, got out and was looking for a job in Charlotte ( house is in Kings Mountain, 30 min. away ). He was at a diner ( that still stands- actually an old Charlotte landmark ) and got tapped on the shoulder. Seems the person he met was the Dean of Students at Queens college, and he offered Hoyle an invitation to become the first male student to ever attend Queens. And, Hoyle stayed at the Dean’s house for the entire stay at the college. He got out, joined the Chrysler Corp., and traveled the world as a top exec. The girl he married, that lived here? She went to work for the FBI in Washington, and became….. Bobby Kennedy’s secretary !!! How cool is that ! She is still with the FBI and they live in Richmond. Along the way, Hoyle ( who is very intelligent and acts like he’s 30! ) and his new brother-in-law, invented the powdered form of Hawaiian Punch !! And the wallpaper ?.. When I gave it to him to keep, tears dropped from his eyes… it was his wife’s handwritting.. she had put up the paper when they first moved into the house as husband and wife. Life is a full circle, is it not ? best of trades to ya’, baz.

Login or register to post comments …. Submitted by baz22 (1439 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 12:54 #72455

did take a position in ‘ my ‘ early today… there was a quite large, last min. block ‘ buy ‘ at the ‘ ask ‘.. will see…

Login or register to post comments Re: …. Submitted by baz22 (1439 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 12:57 #72456 (in reply to #72455)

sorry… ” large, last min. block buy ” Yesterday — just before the close.

Login or register to post comments AUMN starting to fly Submitted by London (181 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 12:59 #72457

after private placement.

Login or register to post comments ZZZZZ Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 13:28 #72458

Well this has been exciting. I’m thinking we should see some upward momentum very soon.

Login or register to post comments Re: hi, toby Submitted by aiki100 (99 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 13:30 #72459 (in reply to #72454)

Baz -That is a great story, thanks for sharing it. A full circle, indeed…

Login or register to post comments GDX up with gold weak, a bit above support Submitted by cheapy (394 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 13:44 #72460

I’ve seen that play before when the shorts are covering their miner positions before gold goes up.

Bought a bit of RBY sub $3.50 if they want to give it away.

Login or register to post comments Re: hi, toby Submitted by baz22 (1439 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 13:51 #72461 (in reply to #72459)

yes, it is… I need to proof read.. Hoyle is 82, not 72 !.. that’s even more impressive !.. also, I decided to add ‘ arry ‘ for long term, maybe more to an IRA … their pipeline is just to durn impressive… someone pointed out that there can be just as many large price moves from phase II to phase III, as in phase III results… I agree.. as I said before , ‘ arry ‘ is so very much like ‘ incy ‘ a few years back… have a great weekend.

Login or register to post comments markets rolling over for today? Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 14:13 #72462

My stops on QQQQ shorts were not triggered, and now seems like a better entry compared to the first spike at the opening. The choice of QQQQ was unfortunate too, but I’m going by the elevated QQQQ:SPY ratio.

Login or register to post comments Re: markets rolling over for today? Submitted by teamonfuego (2248 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 14:13 #72463 (in reply to #72462)

Not sure about that Jack. Despite FCX folding today (which I think is a good tell on the markets) and the dollar being fairly strong, the market is hanging in there. I actually think this is a good spot to go long FCX given the risk-reward scenario (stop out below previous lows).

Login or register to post comments A proposal to pick your pocket: HR 4646 Submitted by MoKat (214 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 14:15 #72464

Today I received a heads up on this House of Representatives bill to change the way we are taxed.
Every transaction gets hit for a 1% charge. Deposit your check in the bank, withdraw money from your account, use your credit card, pay in cash…. pay 1%. If you are a business… ditto.

Politicians run amok. VAT on steroids!

HR 4646
Sponsor Rep Chakka Fattah

b) Purposes- The purpose of section 3 of this Act is to establish a fee on most transactions. Such fee–

(1) is different than a sales tax in that a sales tax is charged only on sales to the final consumer and the transaction fee would apply to intermediate users as well as end users,

(2) is different than a value added tax (VAT), commonly used in European and other countries, in that a VAT is imposed only on a portion of a transaction’s value (roughly the difference between an item’s selling price and it’s cost) and the transaction fee would apply to the entire amount of the transaction, and

(3) is intended to raise sufficient revenue to eliminate the national debt, which was $10.6 trillion in January 2009, during a period of 7 years and to phase out the income tax on individuals.

SEC. 4501. IMPOSITION OF TRANSACTION FEE.

`(a) In General- There is hereby imposed on every specified transaction a fee in an amount equal to 1 percent of the amount of such transaction.

`(b) Specified Transaction- For purposes of this chapter–

`(1) IN GENERAL- The term `specified transaction’ means any transaction that uses a payment instrument, including any check, cash, credit card, transfer of stock, bonds, or other financial instrument.

`(2) TRANSACTION- The term `transaction’ includes retail and wholesale sales, purchases of intermediate goods, and financial and intangible transactions.

`(c) Liability for Fee- Persons become liable for the fee at the moment the person exercises control over a piece of property or service, regardless of the payment method.

`(d) Collection- The fees will be collected by the seller or financial institution servicing the transaction and shall be paid over to the Secretary. In the case of a person who fails to collect and pay over the fee as required under this subsection, such person shall become liable for the fee not so collected and paid over.

`(e) Potential Exclusions- Subsection (a) shall not apply to transactions involving stock (and any options or derivatives with respect to stock) until–

`(1) such time as the United States enters into an international agreement that regulates domestic and international stock exchanges, or

`(2) the Secretary issues recommendations regarding the application of the fee as it applies to stock.

`(f) Regulations- The Secretary shall issue such regulations or other guidance as may be necessary or appropriate to carry out the purposes of this section, including regulations or other guidance which require reporting of such information as the Secretary determines appropriate to prevent under reporting of the amounts on which a fee is imposed by this section.’.

(b) Clerical Amendment- The table of chapters for the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 is amended by inserting after the item relating to section 36 the following new item:

Login or register to post comments Here’s another volume Submitted by London (181 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 14:21 #72465

spurt. gave it out at low 15’s early in week and making another move now. (MOTR)

Login or register to post comments re:hi toby from baz22 Submitted by tobyt (86 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 14:25 #72466

a wonderful story/// just snuck away from the office for 3 hours to do some tile work on the tub surround, had the old plastic stuff and since one of the children (40s) has already said he would love to have it at some future date figured I would fix it up good between rentals, someone asked me years ago why I enjoy real estate/remodeling so much, I was a full time stock-broker then, and I replied that I could walk away from the house for a month or two and come back and it would be exactly the same, I asked him if he could try that w/dell?????(a local co), nuff said, I hopped on your FEED mention several days ago after missing your SEED suggestion, many thanks, also did the IMMU (dec 4 puts and calls are both .35, good total returnf. did ARIA also recently and sold a few of the INFN 8 puts for this month. The $$$ sequestered for cash secured puts in my IRA will return 5% this month on stocks such as INFN 8s, CLNE 13s, XRA 5s etc……. that is the best remodeling story I have heard in years……

Login or register to post comments re:hi toby from baz22 Submitted by tobyt (86 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 14:26 #72467

a wonderful story/// just snuck away from the office for 3 hours to do some tile work on the tub surround, had the old plastic stuff and since one of the children (40s) has already said he would love to have it at some future date figured I would fix it up good between rentals, someone asked me years ago why I enjoy real estate/remodeling so much, I was a full time stock-broker then, and I replied that I could walk away from the house for a month or two and come back and it would be exactly the same, I asked him if he could try that w/dell?????(a local co), nuff said, I hopped on your FEED mention several days ago after missing your SEED suggestion, many thanks, also did the IMMU (dec 4 puts and calls are both .35, good total returnf. did ARIA also recently and sold a few of the INFN 8 puts for this month. The $$$ sequestered for cash secured puts in my IRA will return 5% this month on stocks such as INFN 8s, CLNE 13s, XRA 5s etc……. that is the best remodeling story I have heard in years……

Login or register to post comments Re: markets rolling over for today? Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 14:34 #72468 (in reply to #72463)

Thanks! The more I think about it the more I’m convinced I should take profits on the long dollar trades, at least on the volatile options. Who knows what happens with dollar next week. The dollar jump was less that I expected and I have a feeling there may be more dollar selling in the future.

Login or register to post comments Re: markets rolling over for today? Submitted by teamonfuego (2248 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 15:12 #72469 (in reply to #72468)

yeah…it should be quite volatile in the near future. maybe doing a straddle would work?

Login or register to post comments Wall Street Deals Commercial Real Estate Submitted by MoKat (214 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 15:27 #72470

General Growth Properties, the #2 mall owner, is ready to emerge from bankruptcy. The deal creates two new companies, GWP retains its name for one and the other is….get this…. The Howard Hughes Corporation.
They will hold the non-income producing assets.

It was educational to read how the banksters restructured the debt with new investors and new promises to pay.
Hedge funds are major players….they even hooked the Texas Teachers Fund for $500 million. Soon after coming out of bancruptcy, they will seek to raise 2.25B from an equity sale. They have 1.6B in existing debt and a 300M revolving credit line.

If you’re interested, the whole article is found at: http://tinyurl.com/22v4w5d.

Login or register to post comments baz22/bio tks Submitted by tobyt (86 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 15:28 #72471

forgot to mention EXAS ($7.8)has a meeting next fri on their colon test, shd??? go favorable, the options (because of this event) are insane, selling this mo 5 put shd be low risk, 11% cash on cash…….have a great remodeling week-end DYOD of course

Login or register to post comments Similar rallies this year Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 15:44 #72472

The FEB to APR rally and this rally look very similar. Probably because they are pictures painted by the same painter. Currently we are seeing the same action at the same levels as the end of March. Something I’m keeping an eye on.

A break through the 20 day SMA and bounce to lower high will be the sign I’m looking for.

Login or register to post comments Re: A proposal to pick your pocket: HR 4646 Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 15:39 #72473 (in reply to #72464)

Mokat,

It is my understanding this is a proposed law, but so far unpassed.

Not a “good thing” as Martha would say.

Grym

Login or register to post comments Re: gold today Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 15:40 #72474

Tbar,

I saw your post on the Oct 21 page so reposted it here. I agree that selectively picking a timeframe can distort a point, but there are buyers and sellers everyday so for those Aussies who might have bought on June 7, they are down 11%. More interestingly though, the two year chart you posted of gold in Aussie dollars shows that gold actually peaked in ASD in March 2009. So any Aussies who bought gold during the last stock market panic would still be down 18 months later.

Submitted by tbar (167 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 08:37 #72427 (in reply to #72374)
“An ounce of gold has dropped 11% in ASD since June 7, so it wouldn’t be a good hedge for a strong currency.”

That’s a very selective time frame to try to prove your point. A mere 2 months prior to that and it is up 13% against the xad. Further still the xad was at 93.61 then and is up close to 5% since.

So net, gold in xad has beaten xad during xad rallies and correction when you look at “fair” timeframes.

If thats not enough go back to July 2008 and do the math, xad is 1 penny higher than it was then.

Gold:xad is nearly 50% higher.

Login or register to post comments ABK times one fiat “dolla” Submitted by bigwad1 (451 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 15:56 #72475

The more verbal pressure that is put on BAC and JPM and GS and the rest of the banks that have this country firm in their grasp, the better it will be for the insurers even aig.
Not a recommendation unless your crazy like me?

Login or register to post comments Re: gold today Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 16:04 #72476 (in reply to #72474)

Further to my previous post, another correlation one could perhaps draw from the Aussie dollar, is does it make sense to buy gold when your currency is weak? When gold peaked at $1564 AUD in March 2009, the AUD was worth 62.79. When I bought CSCO with 0.75 CAD, I lost money when I sold it when my CAD was worth 0.90, even though its share price was up 15%. Its the same principle.

Login or register to post comments Re: Similar rallies this year Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 16:06 #72477 (in reply to #72472)

I noticed that too. I’m not sure if end of March or end of April is the best analogy now. It could go either way I guess. However, if you look at the stock leader, AAPL, the charts look more like end of April. On the other hand, another leading indicator, TBT, looks more like end of March.
This is why now I’m mostly in cash, except for a small short on QQQQ and DE and a bit larger short of DBA.

Login or register to post comments More downside left in this? Submitted by goldbug58 (146 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 16:09 #72478

ALGN – off over 12% on almost 7 million shares; avg volume 832K; I’d call that a tad bearish. They did report a profit, compared to a loss this time last year, but took some charges; so maybe the sell-off is over now.

Login or register to post comments Re: hi, toby Submitted by Johnny (862 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 16:17 #72479 (in reply to #72454)

Thanks for sharing Baz, that was a great read. Each time I go hiking or mucking about in the woods and come across an old foundation or dilapidated home, I wonder who lived there? What were their hopes and dreams? How was life and what were there struggles to survive?
If only the old places could talk.
J

Login or register to post comments Re: Similar rallies this year Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 16:34 #72480 (in reply to #72477)

The January high is a little higher than August’s and February’s low a little lower than August’s so I think we’ll see a little lower of a high than in April. Next move would be the formation of the left shoulder at around 1200 and then the head at around 1212. A break of the 20 day will be the real indicator I think.

Login or register to post comments Re: Banks are getting healthier Submitted by loannetter (844 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 16:45 #72481 (in reply to #72453)

gforce,

Your article clearly debunks professed ‘profits’.

Check out the list of banks on bailout steroids and note the % of paybacks: http://money.cnn.com/news/specials/storysupplement…

Login or register to post comments China opens a Greek dollar swap window Submitted by MoKat (214 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 16:58 #72482

Interesting observations by Jim Willie

China shedding dollars, paying big prices for resource assets, may be even discounting the value of the T Bonds it owns.
Fed to continue dumping good money after bad…. mortgage bond hole up to 1 Trillion dollars. Germans caught off guard as China creates a backdoor to the Euro and EU.

Details and more at:

http://tinyurl.com/2e3yumh

Login or register to post comments Re: hi, toby Submitted by baz22 (1439 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 17:09 #72483 (in reply to #72479)

Thanks, Johnny…. You know, I honestly believe that, if you give it enough time, and trust your heart, that the House picks You, not the other way around. Have a great weekend, baz.

Login or register to post comments Any updates of Nat Gas? Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 17:18 #72484

UNG was absolutely destroyed in the last several days. This is the only asset on the earth that is absolutely hated by all investors (unlike dollar that has at least 3% longs and I used to be one for a week, up till today). At some point it should be a good buy. Anyone knows when such turnaround could come based on fundamentals? The TA still looks lousy, but looks like December was good time to buy it in the last couple of years.
Anyone?

Login or register to post comments glad I sold UUP and covered SLV/SLW/GLD shorts Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 17:39 #72485

Dollar is being killed in afterhours. Inside trades due to G20 leaks?

Login or register to post comments Re: glad I sold UUP and covered SLV/SLW/GLD shorts Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 18:07 #72486 (in reply to #72485)

Aren’t currency markets closed now? I see that the futures on FINVIZ show the USD down, but that could change a lot between now and Monday, whether up or down. Lot depends on G20 meeting, but doesn’t sound optimistic much will be resolved.

Login or register to post comments Re: China opens a Greek dollar swap window Submitted by loannetter (844 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 18:14 #72487 (in reply to #72482)

MoKat,

And on that note: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0z93NLZSJNY

Login or register to post comments Re: glad I sold UUP and covered SLV/SLW/GLD shorts Submitted by cheapy (394 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 18:15 #72488 (in reply to #72485)

Earlier on in the day I noticed miners were up with gold down. I’ve noticed that at gold price bottoms before, so took a risk on a bunch of RBY.

My theory there is that the big gold shorts are also the big miner shorts, and before they cover their gold shorts, they cover their miner shorts.

RBY to me is a longer term bet that either they build it and it becomes profitable or with McEwen gone, maybe the animosity were Goldcorp is gone, too, and eventually they or some other big miner needing property that can produce in the next few years agree to buy it. I noticed a 3rd super high grade sample in the drill results early on in the week. If there are now 3 places so far with 2000 gr/ton ore, I would think it likely others will be found in time. One could be luck, two still might be luck, but three is too many for it to be just luck, I think. In the meantime, the overall grade will make it profitable to mine, anyway.

Login or register to post comments No Mas! When do UNG/HNU.to/VXX investors break free? Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 18:24 #72489

Is there anything like the relentless downhill slide in these poor excuses for ‘tracking’ ETFs? They’re not just ETFs from hell. They’re deceptive ETFs that slowly suck investors into (financial) hell, stuck doing time on a 21 inch screen- a daily grind of watching fellow inmates (I mean investors) push prices up the slope of hope, only to watch them tumble back down to new lows.

Login or register to post comments MBS live chart source? Submitted by loannetter (844 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 19:02 #72490

Anyone know a good live or slightly delayed source to track the Conventional (FNMA and FHLMC) as well as Government (GNMA) securities price action?

Thanks in advance.

Login or register to post comments Re: VXX > XXX Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 18:31 #72491 (in reply to #72445)

jet- Man, am I glad I stayed away from the market today. It would have been a total waste of my time. Better plays await us on Monday following the G-20.

Login or register to post comments Re: Here’s another volume Submitted by London (181 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 18:46 #72492 (in reply to #72465)

damn, Cramer got a hold of MOTR tonight;)! See previous posts this week at 15.

Login or register to post comments Re: No Mas! When do UNG/HNU.to/VXX investors break free? Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 19:33 #72493 (in reply to #72489)

When they play the right side of the trend – HND.TO has gone from $5.35 to almost $12.00 the last 3 months.

Login or register to post comments Re: No Mas! When do UNG/HNU.to/VXX investors break free? Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 20:03 #72494 (in reply to #72493)

LOL. Well, my point was only that they simply free themselves by throwing off the ball and chain.

Login or register to post comments Actor Randy Quaid seeks refugee status in Canada Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 21:17 #72495

Could this become a trend?

http://tinyurl.com/2ey6orf

Login or register to post comments Re: Any updates of Nat Gas? Submitted by Ross (389 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 21:40 #72496 (in reply to #72484)

Jack,
Pray for a very cold winter. We could have another Pinatubo event working but aside from that, nat gas is almost as plentiful as air.

No help from me. Sorry.

Login or register to post comments Re: Actor Randy Quaid seeks refugee status in Canada Submitted by wpepper (16 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 22:29 #72497 (in reply to #72495)

“A visibly anxious Mrs. Quaid offered to wear an ankle bracelet or live under conditions at the Sutton Place hotel to secure the couple’s release.”

The Sutton Place is a five diamond hotel. She’d probably run into Paris Hilton and compare horror stories at the chocolate Buffet.

Login or register to post comments “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…” Submitted by NYUGrad (2964 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 23:54 #72498

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times; it ws the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness; it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity; it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness; it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair; we had everything before us, we had nothing before us; we were all going directly to Heaven, we were all going the other way.”

http://bit.ly/dtwz1b

Login or register to post comments G 19 and Ponzi II Submitted by Ross (389 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 00:12 #72499

Why anyone gives a rats ass about government paid lackeys attending some confab to decide the financial future of the world ( like they could ) eludes this homeboy… Braaazille even opted out for obvious reasons. They are sane.

We will now embark on the good ship ‘Lolli Ponzi II.’ If we wanted to be cute, we might refer to QE II as PZ II since the suckers (us) will be on the hook for the next trillion or more and possibly multiplied by 3.

I had a hard day giving antibiotic shots to some baby beef critters that have come down with the sniffles, but I ran across this tome from Puru Saxena who published an article on safehaven.com. The more I read this kid’s writings, the more I appreciate him.

My only question about PZ II is whether the FED will buy treasuries directly or wash it through the banking system and allow them to book more profits against the putbacks they must write off from the mortgage markets.

Flip a coin. The result will be the same. Pulped dead trees with ink splashed on them will continue to be masquerading as money.

I really believe that we should all be thinking about how we move our portable assets out of the claws of the U.S. To my mind, capital controls are inevitable.

Anyway, this kid Saxena has a pretty good take on PZ II. Enjoy.

Login or register to post comments Re: G 19 and Ponzi II Submitted by kaimu (1857 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 04:27 #72500 (in reply to #72499)

ALOHA!!

By “capital controls” do you also include the highly biased income tax laws in America? Or are you only referring to “flight of capital”? Maybe I should say “flight of DEBT” since that is what capital is now.

I decided to do a little research on “marketable” DEBT ISSUES at the US Treasury because I have been noticing that for a long time now over the past year or so that every DEBT ISSUE, every Thursday, is well over $100BIL. I decided to see if this amount was normal in the past or is this abnormal. Instead of looking at every Thursday for every year, as there are 52 of them each year, I instead looked at annual and quarterly DEBT ISSUES. Here they are …

FY 1998
Jan 8 – $41.6BIL
Apr 2 – $37.5BIL
June 25 – $36.2BIL
Sept 24 – $22.5BIL

FY 2003
Jan 2 – $59.9BIL
Apr 3 – $84.3BIL
July 3 – $66BIL
Oct 24 – $64.6BIL

FY 2006
Jan 6 – $56.3BIL
Apr 6 – $67BIL
July 6 – $62.1BIL
Oct 20 – $63.8BIL

FY 2008
Jan 3 – $56BIL
Apr 3 – $63BIL
July 3 – $89.1BIL
Oct 25 – $60.6BIL

FY 2009
Jan 8 – $114.4BIL
Apr 2 – $131.4BIL
July 2 – $130BIL
Oct 23 – $145BIL

FY 2010
Jan 14 – $91BIL
Apr 1 – $132.5BIL
July 1 – $148BIL
Oct 21 – $133.9BIL

Bottom line … every thing was fine until FY 2009!

There appears to be a pattern whereby DEBT ISSUES have increased substantially since FY 2009 and FY 2010 and on into FY 2011 when compared to prior FY 1998, FY 2003, FY 2006 and FY 2008. Of note is the collapse of tax revenues in Q4/2008. A collapse in tax revenues means an increase in debt issues as it seems debt issues over the past couple years have been well over $100BIL per week on average.

The most current DEBT ISSUE for Thursday, Oct 21st was $133.9BIL USD, well over $100BIL yet again. The average debt issue for FY 2011, for October 2010, is $120BIL USD, with one more week to go. The last month of FY 2010, September, the average debt issue was $149BIL USD.

Here are the latest average DEBT ISSUES …

FY 2008 = $67.2BIL USD
FY 2009 = $130.2BIL USD
FY 2010 = $126.2BIL USD

So every 5.4 weeks the US Treasury issues a $700BIL TARP … This makes the US FED QE look like “Sesame Street” …

From FY 2008 to FY 2009 and FY 2010 marketable DEBT ISSUES have doubled. Both REPS and DEMS are to blame, more to the point REP and DEM voters are to blame. We elected and re-elected politicians who have no qualms about doubling up on marketable debt issues knowing full well it won’t be them or their families who will suffer the future fiscal consequences of insolvency. Knowing full well that raising taxes will never make the slightest dent in the amount of debt being issued. This is by design, their design …

We Americans and our government and banks live and die by DEBT … I prefer to live without it. Maybe I will have to follow Randy Quaid to Canada and seek “monetary asylum” from my government and its USD.

Login or register to post comments Re: Any updates of Nat Gas? Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 07:29 #72501 (in reply to #72484)

don’t touch this ETF – end of story. JMO.

Plenty of distributors, drillers and refineries that will make good trading vehicles when the economy gets back on its feet.

Login or register to post comments Saturday Morning Coffee: Chart Mania Submitted by Ron Sen (581 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 07:27 #72502

I really am not fond of the ‘correlation’ market. Trade against machines full-time? It is what it is. Colin Twiggs has a terrific piece today on his site.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2010-…

My stuff…

http://tinyurl.com/3xrvf2b

– Chop
– Pop
– Drop

Login or register to post comments Re: G 19 and Ponzi II Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 07:49 #72503 (in reply to #72499)

Ross,

Enjoyed your presentation of the fairytale scene..

It occurred to me recently that the QEII label is a good fit.

Last I heard the QE2 (Cunard Line version) was withdrawn from active service and will be converted into a floating hotel… going nowhere.

Someone needs to tell “Captain Bernanke” to get a real job.
(He can go to the back of the 15 million person line.)

Login or register to post comments Re: G 19 and Ponzi II Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 08:06 #72504 (in reply to #72499)

Ross,

In reading Puru Saxena’s views on the In/De-flation debate, I saw nothing new, but think his conclusion,

“Figure 1 shows that US commercial-bank credit bottomed out earlier this year and since then, it has risen by roughly US$400 billion. So, it should be clear to all observers that the private-sector in the US is no longer de-leveraging and this is inflationary.”

Is based on too short a chart “squiggle”. As we can see there was a nearly vertical moon shot in 2008 and then a downward dribble.

While my own view is for personal US behavior to remain constrained by the national deflationary job situation, I can certainly recognized areas of inflation in “must buy” items.

We need to avoid locking into either view too tightly,IMO.

AttachmentSize us_credit.png 34.32 KB Login or register to post comments Investing in Green (Thoughts for the weekend) Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 08:19 #72505

Just imagine…

If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Delta Airlines one year ago, you will have $49.00 today!

If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in AIG one year ago, you will have $33.00 today.

If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Lehman Brothers one year ago, you will have $0.00 today.

But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the aluminum cans for recycling refund, you will have received a $214.00.

Based on the above, the best current investment plan is to drink heavily & recycle. It is called the 401-Keg.

A recent study found that the average American walks about 900 miles a year. Another study found that Americans drink, on average, 22 gallons of alcohol a year. That means that, on average, Americans get about 41 miles to the gallon!

Makes you Darn proud to be an American!!!

Cheers!

Login or register to post comments WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 08:48 #72506

This commentary on the tea party reflects my concept of what is going on. Like the original “partiers” it is neither Republican nor Democrat in makeup — just a loose confederation of people who are fed up with a lack of true representation.

Whether her conviction the Republicans will benefit or not waits to be seen. The important thing is that “We the People” get representation. Congress was meant to be the only lobbyists in town.

http://tiny.cc/a4f06

Tea Party to the Rescue
How the GOP was saved from Bush and the establishment.
By PEGGY NOONAN

Login or register to post comments Group of 20 vows to avoid currency devaluations Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 09:33 #72507

“The agreement, which includes no specific numerical commitments…”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Group-of-20-vows-to-…

There, we know what this agreement is worth.

Average American getting 41 miles to the gallon – good one Grym.

Login or register to post comments Re: Group of 20 vows to avoid currency devaluations Submitted by gforce (400 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 09:41 #72508 (in reply to #72507)

Average American getting 41 miles to the gallon – good one Grym.

Agreed; is that mean, median, or mode?

Login or register to post comments DYAI Submitted by Luggie (246 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 09:56 #72509

Hi All – Nice article covering one of litter that is lightly traded. In and out over the years due to its sorted history, but one of the favorites. Happy Trading
http://www.streetauthority.com/a/best-growth-stock…

Login or register to post comments Re: Saturday Morning Coffee: Chart Mania Submitted by Johnny (862 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 10:11 #72510 (in reply to #72502)

Ron,
Thank you for bringing that excellent post to our attention.
Bernanke’s Quote & 10/23 Twiggs reply: “Empirical evidence suggests that our previous program of securities purchases was successful in bringing down longer-term interest rates and thereby supporting the economic recovery.” While asset purchases may have lowered longer-term interest rates, what does he mean by it supported the economic recovery? Did lower interest rates create new jobs? No. Did it spur new investment? No. Did it raise consumer confidence? No.”

As a retiree I would add “Did it help the increasing millions of people depending on dividends for a large portion of their income?” NO. It didn’t support their “economic recovery”. It hurt all of the retirees and those saving for their future, their children’s and grand children’s future, but the banksters, government employees, big X and unions got theirs!

I used to draw $2000 a month from private sector dividends, then it dropped to $1000 now to $0.01. I was holding off to go on the government SS dole, but I had to do that. So, the U.S. government forced me from living off of private sector dividends to accepting their Social Security Payments, putting us all in greater debt! Millions of retired people, savers and those depending on dividends were and are being hurt. Plus the states and municipalities are raising our taxes like drunken economists. At least we have national forced health care, which raised my medical insurance $100 a month with no discernible benefit.

If I get anymore government help, I’ll be on welfare! Party on politicians & banksters!
J

Login or register to post comments “Sell in May and Go Away” Submitted by Seamus (378 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 10:20 #72511

Excerpt from Market Edge:

“The Stock Trader’s Almanac, a publication started by Yale Hirsch and now edited by son Jeffrey Hirsch, is widely credited with discovering these seasonal tendencies and verifying their accuracy. According to the Almanac, a plan of investing $10,000 in the DJIA each November 1 and then flipping the money into bonds each May 1 since 1950 would have resulted in a nest egg approaching $600,000. The opposite course of action, buying bonds on November 1 and stocks on May 1, would have left one with less than $1000.”

Using the S&P 500 for illustrative purposes this past year:

Nov. 2009 – Apr. 2010: +14.5% May 2010 – Oct. 2010: -0.3% (one week to go)

Barring an upside explosion of epic proportions to conclude the current May-October term next week, the “Sell in May” axiom will have maintained for another year in 2010.

Login or register to post comments Conjecture? IMF power shift, emerging markets more voice Submitted by NYUGrad (2964 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 10:23 #72512

Emerging Nations Gain in G-20 Deal

http://bit.ly/a1XKOa

“The ministers agreed that two of the nine European seats on the 24-seat IMF board will be shifted to emerging economic powers. As well, 6% of the voting and financing quota of the IMF will be shifted from advanced countries to emerging ones.

“This makes for the biggest reform ever in the governance of the institution,” Dominque Strauss-Kahn, the IMF’s managing director, told reporters outside the meeting. He said the changes still require ratification of the IMF board and would take about a year to be implemented.”

Login or register to post comments Re: Group of 20 vows to avoid currency devaluations Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 10:55 #72513 (in reply to #72507)

Traders respond to the G20 meeting by devaluating the $ – see attached $USD chart.

**NOTE: my bad – yesterdays market. But what the heck was that about going into a currency meeting?

Unintended consequences:

“The UK’s biggest supermarket and one of the country’s biggest foods manufacturers are at loggerheads over what a loaf of bread should cost. Premier had requested a price increase from Tesco after wheat prices soared in recent months, adding to the cost of producing a loaf.”

el cheapo supermarkets trying to hold PPI costs (and a cheaper $? Is wheat traded in dollars?) to the manufacturer. This’ll get ugly and it’ll be us that pays, as always.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/re…

AttachmentSize $USD 5 min. 15.62 KB Login or register to post comments Re: “Sell in May and Go Away” Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 12:09 #72514 (in reply to #72511)

Seamus,

Sure true this year, but what will Nov 2 do this next time around?

The “Audacity of Hope” seems a bit faded.

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 12:23 #72515 (in reply to #72506)

Careful what you wish for. When you have candidates like Christine O’Donnell claiming “where in the Constitution is the separation of church and State?, among other dumb claims, Joe Miller of Alaska advocating advocating East German-style border security, “We have the capacity to, as a great nation, secure the border. If East Germany could, we could”, seemingly forgetting that it was built by Joseph Stalin to keep its citizens in, rather than foreigners out. Sharron Angle of Nevada and other candidates who keep claiming the 9/11 terrorists entered the country through Canada, when it has been proven that absolutely none of them did. I don’t have confidence that these are the people who are going to solve your nations problems.

Login or register to post comments Re: Conjecture? IMF power shift, emerging markets more voice Submitted by kaimu (1857 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 12:48 #72516 (in reply to #72512)

ALOHA!!

“The ministers agreed that two of the nine European seats on the 24-seat IMF board will be shifted to emerging economic powers.

So they have allowed the third class steerage to sit on the Promenade Deck of the SS Titanic! SCORE-E-E-E!!!

“Oh, hey, EM I’m sorry … You have to wait a year!!!”, the Captain said … Then all of a sudden the Captain’s temperament changed and as his blood boiled, he blurted out, “In the meantime stay down below you RABBLE!!! And keep serving us in your usual servile manner!” Then one of the Captain’s Chinese servants gave him his new high tech compass complete with GPS and a new but untested iceberg warning system. The Captain grinned, patted the Chinaman on the head and scoffed, “Here you go my fine little yellow man … a paper IOU for all your troubles!” The Chinaman took the piece of paper and put it into his huge bag of other paper IOUs and, like a Santa without a sleigh or any reindeer, he limped away dragging the huge, heavy IOU bag across the deck and down the ladder into the ship’s cargo hold where he threw that bag on top of a Mt. Everest sized mountain of other IOU bags he had stored. Only one more bag and he could afford his own lifeboat that he named “Maru FU”. The Chinaman’s boat was made of every commodity known to mankind since the stone age … The SS Titanic on the other hand was mainly comprise of one of the most abundant commodities known to the Western world … 100% HUBRIS!

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by kaimu (1857 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 15:45 #72517 (in reply to #72515)

ALOHA!!

I don’t have confidence that these are the people who are going to solve your nations problems.

I have even much LESS confidence that the ones in power now will … HA!! Dave, you must be suffering from PSS(Political Stockholm Syndrome)!

Login or register to post comments Re: Conjecture? IMF power shift, emerging markets more voice Submitted by NYUGrad (2964 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 13:23 #72518 (in reply to #72516)

That was great!

Login or register to post comments Art Cashin Saturday interview – comparing today to 1987 Submitted by NYUGrad (2964 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 13:31 #72519

I was 10 yrs old in 1987. so stuff like this helps me gain historical insight.

But then again i can go look at the charts.

http://bit.ly/9fQSuN

It is a great interview. I am sure market participants remember the day like yest. as I will remember the flash crash for a loooong time.

Login or register to post comments Re: “Sell in May and Go Away” Submitted by teamonfuego (2248 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 14:16 #72520 (in reply to #72514)

It depends on what you buy in May, right? I bought on the first dip in May, lost a good chunk of money, bought on the next dip in July, made half of my money back, then bought on the last dip in August and am up a lot since May.

Login or register to post comments Re: “Sell in May and Go Away,” and other myths Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 14:44 #72521 (in reply to #72520)

“Sell in May?
The folklore says, “Sell in May and go away: come back by Saint Leger’s Day,” which comes from England and advises investors to cash in gains before the summer and then buy back at the famed Saint Leger’s Day horse race at Doncaster in mid-September. While the origin of this myth is English, that hasn’t stopped it from being transported across the pond.

Possible sources for the myth include the English tax year ending in April or portfolio managers vacationing all summer. However, we found that the highest returning month for the S&P 500 Index historically has been July. So if you’d sold in May, you’d have missed almost a century of July gains. And in the bigger picture, the ending wealth of a $100 buy-and-hold investment in the stock market in January of 1926 would have been almost four times that of an investment that followed a seasonal strategy of winter in the market, summer in cash.

To be fair, though, there are some periods where this strategy would have worked well. Using 20-20 hindsight, we find that getting out of the market in the summer months would have benefited us particularly well in the 1970s. But we’re not actually convinced that’s a seasonal strategy at all, because the ’70s included one of the most severe bear markets—getting out of the market and into cash would have provided higher returns regardless of the month. “

http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/research_strat…

Login or register to post comments TOF Submitted by Bear E (84 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 14:56 #72522

Team on Fire, it is still hard times here in the US.
See Johhny post #72510.
Grym’s grimm economic suroundings in his part of the country.
Kaimu from Hawaii see rough surf.
Here in the Calif gold country times are tough. Many business went belly up, business is way down and there is no sign of a recovery. My income as a self employed contractor has been horrible for a long time now. I have never seen it this bad.
Your bullish view vs others Bearish view is what makes a market!
Bear E

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Bear E (84 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 15:01 #72523 (in reply to #72515)

Dave M there is no statement about seperation of church and state in the US Constution.

Login or register to post comments Vad set ups? Submitted by Bear E (84 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 15:08 #72524

Vad, do have a book reccomendation for the common patterns setups that you often refer to?
Humble thanks, BearE

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by lessmore (175 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 15:38 #72525 (in reply to #72515)

My next door neighbor is an avid tea-party-nik. She attended the big rally in Washngton D.C. She loves Sarah Palin, Glen Beck, and everyone on FOX.

Recently she has been telling everyone she meets to vote the current County executive out of office. I told her that he does not have a reputation as a big spender. So why should he be voted out of office? He would appear to be someone that a tea party person like her would not oppose.

She replied that he is closing the County nursing home which is subsidized by the County; that her husband is in that home at County expense; that she can not afford private nursing care and does not want to take care of him at home.

That should give you an idea of the irrationality of tea party thinking, i.e., government should stop spending for others.

Login or register to post comments Re: Vad set ups? Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 15:31 #72526 (in reply to #72524)

Without feigned modesty, http://tinyurl.com/2dds7tt

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by kaimu (1857 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 15:49 #72527 (in reply to #72525)

ALOHA!!

That should give you an idea of the irrationality of tea party thinking …

No … that’s just desperate irrationality of your neighbor!

Login or register to post comments PMV.V nearly doubled to .76 cents? Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 16:08 #72528

Tell me this is an error Kaimu…?

AttachmentSize pmv.v_daily.png 19.03 KB Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 16:32 #72529 (in reply to #72515)

Dave M,

“Careful what you wish for. When you have candidates like Christine O’Donnell claiming “where in the Constitution is the separation of church and State?, among other dumb claims,”

Actually, all the Constitution says is:

“Congress shall make no law regarding the establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof…” (First Amendment)

This was to avoid the practice of instituting a state church such as The Church of England which they as colonists had.

All of the other stuff about prohibiting prayer in school or a manger on the court house lawn is PC-type clutter. I seems to me these things could be considered “prohibiting”, but to me it is a non-issue. Let people do whatever their own views lead them to. Take turns kids.

Login or register to post comments Re: PMV.V nearly doubled to .76 cents? Submitted by kaimu (1857 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 16:33 #72530 (in reply to #72528)

ALOHA!!

Scroll up … its a reverse split, which is essentially a pre-requisite for the ASX IPO in November.

Login or register to post comments Techniques of Tape Reading Submitted by Bear E (84 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 16:39 #72531

Thank you Vad. BearE

Login or register to post comments Re: TOF Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 16:41 #72532 (in reply to #72522)

Bear E,

I’m sure there are places which are better than others, but I have been encouraged with the apparent spread to many if not most states.

When it first began to deteriorate here in Illinois people were given nice packages to retire early. Then it became a case of leave now and keep your health coverage to age 65. Then it was simply goodbye — to many in their mid to late 50s. They are at Walmart, Ace hardware, and the super market — taking the kinds of jobs I had after school — low pay and no benefits.

Now we finally have tea party protesters across the country complaining about job losses (along with other issues) and may begin to turn things around.

Both major parties are at the heart of the problem IMO.

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 16:45 #72533 (in reply to #72525)

lessmore,

“That should give you an idea of the irrationality of tea party thinking, i.e., government should stop spending for others.”

No, that gives me an idea of your neighbor.

Not all Republicans or all Democrats think alike — why should all tea party backers?

It’s quite clear that not all of us think alike here, but that’s good, I think.

Grym

Whoops, I see Kaimu beat me to it 😉

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 17:17 #72534 (in reply to #72517)

Kaimu,

America is already one of the most insular nations in the Western world, and groups like the Tea Party will make it more so. Rather than take any responsibility for the mess it finds itself in today, it is much easier to point the finger at someone else. Blame China. Blame Canada. Blame Mexico. Building giant walls on your borders isn’t going to solve your problems.

I was in Hawaii during the election campaign in 2004 and when those announcements came on TV advising the terror alert had been raised from yellow to orange, or whatever, I felt like I was in George Orwell’s 1984. That is how Bush/Cheney were reelected, by instilling paranoia and fear to the general public. George and Dick will keep us safe – I think not.

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by lessmore (175 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 18:47 #72535 (in reply to #72533)

Kaimu & Grym,

All Tea-Party-niks do think alike in one respect. They do not want government spending cut in areas that will harm themselves. Tea-Party-niks on Social Security and Medicare do not want cuts in those programs in their lifetimes. Tea-Party-niks on SSI and medicaid do not want cuts in those programs. Tea-Party-niks in the military and war/defense related jobs do not want cuts in those programs. Tea-Party-niks who have Federal, State, City or other public sector jobs do not want their jobs cut. Tea-Party-niks who receive state pensions do not want budget cuts that might undermine or reduce those pensions. Tea-Party-niks in higher education and public school education do not want cuts in education spending.

Since, as a group, they advocate cuts in government spending, I believe that each Tea-Party-nik wants cuts in those areas that will not hurt themselves but will hurt others.

Although all Tea-Party-niks oppose tax increases, they are certainly not all beneficiaries of the Federal Income tax provisions that increase the federal income tax only up to income of $372,950 and thereafter apply a flat tax of 35% on all income above that amount.

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 18:50 #72536 (in reply to #72534)

Dave M,

“Rather than take any responsibility for the mess it finds itself in today, it is much easier to point the finger at someone else. Blame China. Blame Canada. Blame Mexico.”

This is exactly what the tea party movement, in general, is demanding — that someone take responsibility. Those responsible for US loss of jobs, for the housing bubble, for decades of mounting debt, lack of alternative energy sources, military adventures to benefit a select few have been not only absolved, but rewarded.

People are fed up with the elitist political leaders in cahoots with big business leaders.

We see the immense cost being shoved off on our kids and future generations and want it stopped.

Sure there are some whackos on camera and clamoring for attention — the media loves those and they get featured, but there are a lot of average, ordinary folks who just want justice and representation.

China, Canada and Mexico are not the culprits. It was our own elected and appointed Quislings who did this to us.

Grym

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Ron Sen (581 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 19:06 #72537 (in reply to #72535)

So what’s new? Everyone wants less government for everyone else and more for themselves…

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 19:12 #72538 (in reply to #72536)

Grym,

Fair enough – I guess its true that the more wingnut candidates attract the most media attention. I read somewhere the other day that 47% of Americans paid no income tax last year, but even more surprising, giant corporations like Exxon Mobil payed no corporate income tax at all in 2009. Now it would seem to me that Exxon Mobil benefits hugely from having infrastructure like roads for the public to drive their cars on, so it makes sense to me that Exxon Mobil should help pay for those roads – just a thought. Have you heard this joke – due to the economic downturn Exxon Mobil had to lay off 25 of their congressmen last year.

Login or register to post comments Two parties might be over? Submitted by NYUGrad (2964 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 19:23 #72539

No positions yet. Waiting for the overall market trend to confirm.

vmw
http://bit.ly/cEhYQZ

crm
http://bit.ly/aQQfnW

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by kaimu (1857 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 22:27 #72540 (in reply to #72537)

ALOHA!!

So what’s new? Everyone wants less government for everyone else and more for themselves…

Wrong …

The number one agenda of most of the people who supported RON PAUL and PEROT was to:

– ELIMINATE THE US FED
– ELIMINATE INCOME TAX

It is immoral that Exxon and Google pay next to nothing in taxes while I am in the highest tax brackets. It is also immoral that those who are on the low income scale pay nothing as well. How many IRS employees and CPAs will applaud a FLAT TAX?

The real issue is not even how much taxes should be raised, but whether income taxes should even exist. Privatize everything except the US Military, besides what business does the US government have being anywhere in the private sector? My definition of private sector is everything except the military. I spent some 20 years watching government destroy public schools. The entire system can be explained under one universal motto that I heard repeated at every school district I ever did construction for, which pretty much covered all of San Francisco and the East Bay.

MOTTO – SPEND MORE THAN YOUR BUDGET OTHERWISE YOUR BUDGET WILL BE CUT NEXT YEAR …

And SPEND they did!!!!! There was no incentive to save, to be prudent, or to be efficient. That is America today …

California and the US Treasury have one thing in common. The more they raise tax rates and the more taxes they collect the broker they get! As I have explained before income taxes even at an 800% increase will only break even with debting and spending at the US Treasury.

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Ross (389 comments) on Sat, 10/23/2010 – 23:53 #72541 (in reply to #72540)

Kaimu you rascal. Why do you always state the obvious when the brainwashed 95% of Americans are watching their home town team and could care less about concepts like money, fairness and true freedom…. Life today is simply a game in a recurring cycle of history that we are powerless to win. ‘WE’ might win at the margin for a brief time but ‘WE’ will still be the dust churned up from the marching army of time.

The Tea Party is simply another splinter group waiting to be co-opted by one of the monoply parties. History holds the examples of “No-Nothings”, “Mugwumps”, “Populists”, “Silver Republicans” and Libertarians who still walk among us!

I have a framed hankerchief on my study wall printed with the likenesses of William Jennings Bryan and Arthur Sewell. It was a gimme handout for the Presidential election of 1896. On the top was printed ‘Tariff for revenue only’ and under ‘Silver, 16 to 1’. What is striking is that back then, the eastern banking interests were pro gold and anti agrarian and anti western silver…As a schoolboy, I remember reading his ‘cross of gold’ speech.

Those who would like to compare Western Civilization to the Roman Empire would do well to read Theodor Mommsen. Spengler debunked and refined much of Mommsen but Mommsen is OK for much of the factual legal and monetary concepts of Greco-Roman civilization. Martin Armstrong, quoted frequently here, picks and chooses his facts to serve his message. He disregards the context of those times.

There are definite cycles of any civilization that are comparable in cosmic beat and physiognomic tact. I’m reminded of the Roman Senator who foresaw the eventual collapse of his civilization and sold his lands and moved his family and slaves across the Rhine into the tribes of the Germanic peoples. He was correct. He was also 300 years too early.

Politics, like life, is just a cycle. If you know where you are, you might comprehend where you might be.

The term ‘Mugwump’ has a certain fanciful attraction!!! Say it three times.
Mugwump, Mugwump, I’m a Mugwumpian!!!

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 00:01 #72542 (in reply to #72541)

Well, if we went into Greco-Roman times, I can’t help but quote the recipe 2,500 years old:

Tao Te Ching, Chapter 57.

The Art of Government
Rule a kingdom by the Normal.
Fight a battle by tactics of surprise.
Win the world by doing nothing.
How do I know it is so?
Through this: –
The more prohibitions there are,
The poorer the people become.
The more sharp weapons there are,
The greater the chaos in the state.
The more skills of technique,
The more cunning things are produced.
The greater the number of statutes,
The greater the number of thieves and brigands.
Therefore the sage says:
I do nothing and the people are reformed of themselves.
I love quietude and the people are righteous of themselves.
I deal in no business and the people grow rich by themselves.
I have no desires and the people are simple
and honest by themselves.

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Ross (389 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 00:50 #72544 (in reply to #72542)

Vadym, Oh splendid bearded one. Decendent of the Teutonic Knights and the Livonian brotherhood of the EAST. But quoting the Yin Yang of the despised yellow daemons? Could it be that the Tartars got so far North? Forsooth?

Truely, education begins with the study of the comparitive morphology of civilizations…

Compare Sun-tse with Clausewitz. Same vibe, different eras.

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Ross (389 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 01:04 #72545 (in reply to #72542)

Vad,
Your 2500 year old recipe smells of wet boots and moldy cheese.

Spakolya noche my friend.

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by BOB 47 (95 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 01:34 #72546 (in reply to #72545)

Ross , people and character have not changed. Bob.

Login or register to post comments The current situation more and more reminds me of pre revolution Submitted by cheapy (394 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 02:39 #72547

FRANCE!!!

Use paper for money…

Print some money, and it was GOOD, so print some more!!!

If things get bad, better print MORE!!!

And when eventually nobody wants to accept it for goods, what happens?

“Let them eat cake”, she said, when asked what the poor that had no bread should eat…

Login or register to post comments THIS MAN Submitted by kaimu (1857 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 03:53 #72548

ALOHA!!

I have mentioned here before the LBJ TAPES, where LBJ and THIS MAN speak about how the Vietnam War is lost in private and then shortly after their private conversations LBJ increases troop strength in Vietnam by 150,000.

THE FOG OF WAR …
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoS3J0KlLgg&feature…

We are the strongest nation in the world today. I do not believe that we should ever apply that economic, political, and military power unilaterally. If we had followed that rule in Vietnam, we wouldn’t have been there. None of our allies supported us. Not Japan, not Germany, not Britain or France. If we can’t persuade nations with comparable values of the merit of our cause, we’d better re-examine our reasoning.

War is so complex it’s beyond the ability of the human mind to comprehend. Our judgment, our understanding, are not adequate. And we kill people unnecessarily. – Robert McNamara

War is not complex it is simply a FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE …
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fuDDqU6n4o&feature…

The word for the day is PRAXEOLOGY …

Login or register to post comments USD/JPY, bond yields and TBT Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 04:09 #72549

FX360.com notes a strong correlation between USD/JPY, $UST2Y & $UST10Y:

http://www.fx360.com/commentary/kathy/4259/usd-tak…

I took another look today and noted the following:

USD/JPY continues to base at present levels. If one looks at this relationship in a weekly time frame previous reversal zones do take a number of weeks to occur: http://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&t…

$UST2Y (2yr treasury yields) is falling. The following article can perhaps help explain why:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/…

Wasn’t Martin Armstrong railing at the Clinton slight-of-hand in turning to the short term debt market to fund govt. spending? As the above article points out, investors expecting £ gilt purchase by the Central Bank of England are buying up short-term paper in anticipation of this event. 2 year yields suggest similar behaviour by one party or another in the US debt market.

$UST10Y is getting interesting. 20MA resistance busted and 50MA getting tested now.

Long-term yields are now flowing through to TBT. 20MA crossing the 50MA in the daily chart. Resistance and consolidation continues at the August gap at 34. Break of 34.50 looks like a long trigger – with say a 33 stop? Depends on your risk management of course.

TBT in a weekly time frame is also interesting, but I don’t know if the indicators are the same as for the daily time frame. If someone could show me TBT with appropriate moving averages and MACD averages I’d appreciate it.

Not sure how to play the currency move. Perhaps Si02 could suggest a straddle that profitably captures this inflection point?

No position.

AttachmentSize ust2y.png 32.82 KB ust10y.png 34.13 KB tbt_daily.png 30.63 KB Login or register to post comments Re: PMV.V nearly doubled to .76 cents? Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 05:04 #72550 (in reply to #72530)

thanks. Unfamiliar with reverse splits. A gap up of that magnitude on no vol. freaked me out.

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 07:50 #72551 (in reply to #72537)

Ron,

“So what’s new? Everyone wants less government for everyone else and more for themselves…”

Not quite everyone.

AS I pointed out,”China, Canada and Mexico are not the culprits. It was our own elected and appointed Quislings who did this to us.”

A lot of us agreed with Reagan when he said, “Government IS the problem.” Henry Paulson, Robert Rubin, Alan Greenspan, and a whole assortment of Senators and Representatives brought this on over several decades of bipartisan, government/business cooperative pushing for cheaper foreign labor with no easing of domestic business restrictions or taxing.

I watch my business evaporate long with 10,000 local manufacturing jobs here.

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 08:12 #72552 (in reply to #72538)

Dave M,

“I read somewhere the other day that 47% of Americans paid no income tax last year, but even more surprising, giant corporations like Exxon Mobil payed no corporate income tax at all in 2009.”

Many individual and small businesses are paying no income tax due to too little income. Politicians don’t realize a “tax break” only applies to those who made a profit. (You know that line item they think so obscene — profit.)

Big outfits like XOM have depletion allowances, offsets, etc. and legislation like the 2004 American Jobs Creation Act which give them special treatment for bringing foreign earnings home.

The worst offenders transplant to the Cayman Islands or somewhere else to dodge paying while benefiting from services here.

Login or register to post comments Sunday Morning Coffee: Nobody Knows Submitted by Ron Sen (581 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 08:32 #72553

Theory of relativity, money-wise. And Grant reminds us that it hasn’t changed.

http://tinyurl.com/384tb2w

Login or register to post comments Re: Conjecture? IMF power shift, emerging markets more voice Submitted by Doug2 (4 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 11:03 #72554 (in reply to #72516)

Brilliant! And funny!

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Dr. Strangelove (814 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 12:57 #72555 (in reply to #72541)

Ross –

“The Tea Party is simply another splinter group waiting to be co-opted by one of the monoply parties. History holds the examples of “No-Nothings”, “Mugwumps”, “Populists”, “Silver Republicans” and Libertarians who still walk among us!”

The drafters made no mention of ‘party’ in the Constitution but unfortunately witnessed the Federalists and anti-Federalists shortly after ratification. You speak as if we are forever a two-party system when those splinter groups have produced the aforementioned Federalists, anti-Federalists, Jeffersonian Republicans, Jacksonian Democrats, Whigs (anti-Jacksonians), Know-Nothings, GOP (Lincoln), Progressives and, perhaps, the TEA PARTY. All is not lost.

As for Armstrong, I suggest you read The New Deal in Old Rome by H.J. Haskell (kaimu recommendation) as it is a 20th century scholarly perspective and comparison to empire building adding depth of perspective to Mommsen’s 19th century views. Armstong hardly disregards the context of Roman times. He simply views it from a monetary perspective.

Cheers.

Login or register to post comments Re: VXX > XXX Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 12:58 #72556 (in reply to #72491)

2nd,

Haha yeah you didn’t miss much of anything Friday. Strange how different the market acts from day to day. Kind of like it’s being manipulated. Nature of the game we choose to play I guess. I hope this is only a short term reality.

Login or register to post comments Easy Money Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 13:43 #72557

http://tinyurl.com/29exfmr

Easy money
I got a one-track mind
And a good reputation laying on the line
I’ll either come back a bum or a king
Baby I don’t know

You don’t have to start a fight
I’m a man who can’t say no
If you’ve got a little risky business
Just point me where you want to go

Take me to the power
Take me to the heat
Take me to the cleaners
If it’s open to the street

Something’s got to pay off
Something’s got to break
Someone’s got a fortune that they’re begging
Me to take

The easy money mentality is back (at least IMO). Traders watching stocks like V making ‘V’ moves off the September lows are not seeing the usual pullbacks needed to climb aboard with decent entries. This usually leads to the trading version of chasing the dragon- the high associated with buying stocks at any price and watching them continue upward. How long this continues is impossible to predict. But current price action seems ‘off-‘ ie, unsustainable.

I’d probably stay away from the sleeping cabins on this train.

Login or register to post comments The Fireworks Are About to Start Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 13:47 #72558

From Seeking Alpha

High complacency coupled with extreme optimism and overbought conditions lead to a dangerous technical situation. Combined with increasing pressure on the U.S. to stop debasing the currency and the “sell the news” mentality of Wall Street, we could certainly be in for some volatile times in the week ahead.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/231775-the-firewor…

Login or register to post comments Re: VXX > XXX Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 13:54 #72559 (in reply to #72556)

“Strange how different the market acts from day to day. Kind of like it’s being manipulated.”

Funny that: when the market did the same thing day after day (gap up and stall, gap up and stall for weeks and weeks, with rare exceptions), everyone was saying it was a sure sign of manipulation.

Login or register to post comments VIX Submitted by speculation101 (9 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 14:26 #72560

For those of you who (like me) have given up on the VXX, there are options on the VIX futures. That’s where I’ll be from now on and possibly I’ll buy some puts on VXX since it seems to go down over time.

Login or register to post comments USD/JPY low of $79.70 in 1995 Submitted by NYUGrad (2964 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 14:32 #72561

We are basically there again now.

Login or register to post comments Nobel Prize Winner Calls for Jail Time for Corporate Crooks Submitted by NYUGrad (2964 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 15:02 #72562

http://bit.ly/b5HhPN

“An institutionalized system of skewed incentives allowed Wall Street bankers and other corporate executives to gamble with America’s wealth and then get away largely scot-free after the house of cards came tumbling down, plunging the U.S. into the worst economic crisis in decades and destroying trillions of dollars of wealth worldwide.

That’s the analysis of Joseph Stiglitz, an internationally renowned economist and winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics.”

Login or register to post comments Housing chart Submitted by steveo (140 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 15:20 #72563

Using raw data from here

http://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata

I noticed an interesting trend — the rich get richer, the middle class and poor get chased out of their houses at low prices.

The richest home buyers were the only segment that saw year over year gains. The rich get richer. Are they smart? Locking their money into hard “assets”, or just stupid because they don’t see just how bad things are? Time will tell, but in reality a house is a highly illiquid investment that could easily fall 50% from here.

Login or register to post comments “China ‘committed’ to letting currency rise, says US” Submitted by NYUGrad (2964 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 15:38 #72564

I just dont get it. How can the U.S squeeze the Chinese to do anything? The debtor who is on the road to default goes to see his banker to tell them what they should do, or else?

http://bit.ly/cUN72r

Login or register to post comments Interesting read on subprime mess from Mauldin Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 15:51 #72565

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo102310.pdf

some testimony from those who had skin in the scam and a look at one important lawsuit being made against a lender.

Login or register to post comments Re: “China ‘committed’ to letting currency rise, says US” Submitted by cheapy (394 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 16:32 #72566 (in reply to #72564)

“Beggar thy neighbor”, is I believe, the current mode.

Longer term, we are dead meat as a result of 40 or 50 years of idiots in Washington that thought we could rig the game so we could consume more than we produce FOREVER. Eventually the numbers just had to get too big, and I think finally, “eventually” is arriving.

Eventually someone will need to pay the tab they have run up. We have absolutely nothing to show for it, and I guess we think we can leave the debt as a “legacy” to our children.

Did you see that 2030 China ad? LOL, its as good as the 1984 Apple ad. Stunning.

Login or register to post comments The Tax Haven That’s Saving Google Billions Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 16:55 #72567

Google uses a complicated structure to send most of its overseas profits to tax havens, keeping its corporate rate at a super-low 2.4 percent

The heart of Google’s international operations is a silvery glass office building in central Dublin, a block from the city’s Grand Canal. In 2009 the office, which houses roughly 2,000 Google employees, was credited with 88 percent of the search juggernaut’s $12.5 billion in sales outside the U.S. Most of the profits, however, went to the tax haven of Bermuda.

http://finance.yahoo.com/taxes/article/111093/the-…

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 17:12 #72568 (in reply to #72555)

Ross – “The Tea Party is simply another splinter group waiting to be co-opted by one of the monoply parties. History holds the examples of “No-Nothings”, “Mugwumps”, “Populists”, “Silver Republicans” and Libertarians who still walk among us!”

It looks like it already is co-opted. In an August 2010 article in The New Yorker, Jane Mayer examined statements that the billionaire brothers, David H. Koch and Charles G. Koch, and Koch Industries are providing financial support to the tea party movement through Americans for Prosperity. Their combined fortune of thirty-five billion dollars is exceeded only by those of Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. The Kochs are longtime libertarians who believe in drastically lower personal and corporate taxes, minimal social services for the needy, and much less oversight of industry—especially environmental regulation. These views dovetail with the brothers’ corporate interests. In a study released this spring, the University of Massachusetts at Amherst’s Political Economy Research Institute named Koch Industries one of the top ten air polluters in the United States.And Greenpeace issued a report identifying the company as a “kingpin of climate science denial.” The report showed that, from 2005 to 2008, the Kochs vastly outdid ExxonMobil in giving money to organizations fighting legislation related to climate change, underwriting a huge network of foundations, think tanks, and political front groups. Indeed, the brothers have funded opposition campaigns against so many Obama Administration policies—from health-care reform to the economic-stimulus program—that, in political circles, their ideological network is known as the Kochtopus.

http://tinyurl.com/299skzg

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 17:39 #72569 (in reply to #72568)

Dave M,

“It looks like it already is co-opted.”

Perhaps. Perhaps a few. Perhaps some segment.

But to take over this spontaneous nation-wide movement would be as difficult as herding cats. There is no real party in the sense of the Republican or Democratic parties. No national chairman or structure which can encompass such a diverse collection. To say anyone is the average “member” is beyond doing — at least st this point.

IMO they are as diverse as the colonists must have been. Think of the craftsmen in Philadelphia or Boston, the farmers throughout the stretch from Maine to Virginia, landowners and laborers — I see this as a wide ranging cross section of people who know they once had it much better and realize they’ve been boondoggled by an elite bunch of crooks.

I’m with Stiglitz — jail time at the very least — tar and feathers of the 1700s would make me feel a lot better.

Login or register to post comments Unsustainable Practices Submitted by Illini (455 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 17:58 #72570

Chalk up trade/fiscal deficits as the most recent example of a boil over in the unsustainable society. All it took was simmering for a few decades with increasing heat until the tech boil over followed by another due to housing financials.

Longer term we still have, in no order:

Population growth
Agriculture burn out
Earth warming
Ozone depletion
War, esp nuclear as a quick fix
Energy and mineral depletion
Land depletion in general(more roads anyone?)

Boiling points can be a good thing if they are heeded/respected. We learn…we act.

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by kaimu (1857 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 18:10 #72571 (in reply to #72568)

ALOHA!!

I always prefer to see the BIG PICTURE and not focus on minuscule details or one tiny company. Koch Industries is the least of our worries if you take a long term perspective. I know long term is un-American, especially when it comes to politics and debt but the long term is more important to people who have more than just political agendas.

The HEAVY HITTERS LIST for political contributions from corporations from 1989 – 2009.

Here it is …
LINK: http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/list.php?order=A

So who is on the TOP of the HEAVY HITTER LIST?

Wow … no surprises here … U-N-I-O-N-S and B-A-N-K-S!!!! And mostly all on the DEM side, many close to 100%.

So where is the evil Koch Industries in the BIG PICTURE … Hummmmmm … way down at #86.

Where is XOM and CVX on the list? Well CVX is #75 and XOM is #77 … The much hated BP is at #134 and the equally hated anti-union, WalMart is at #93.

But do not just look at the company. Also look at the percentages, whereby the TOP 25 are way over-weighted to just the DEMS, while even XOM donates 14% to DEMS and CVX donates 24% to DEMS. Even the evil Koch donates 11% to DEMS. Contrast that to what the UNIONS donate to REPS, mostly less than 3% and the UNIONS occupy the TOP 25 in force.

Heck Credit Suisse, a foreign bank, beats CVX and XOM sitting at #65 … Did Credit Suisse get TARP? Look where GS and C and BAC and JPM are in relation to oil companies.

Next look at the TOP INDIVIDUAL COBNTRIBUTORS here …
LINK: http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/indivs.php

It’s a Who’s-Who of bank and media execs …

Please-e-e, get your priorities straight and quit being such a sucker to the PSS(Political Stockholm Syndrome) …

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by gforce (400 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 18:25 #72572 (in reply to #72569)

Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue
Submitted by Grym (2648 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 17:39 #72569 (in reply to #72568)

“IMO they are as diverse as the colonists must have been. Think of the craftsmen in Philadelphia or Boston, the farmers throughout the stretch from Maine to Virginia, landowners and laborers — I see this as a wide ranging cross section of people who know they once had it much better and realize they’ve been boondoggled by an elite bunch of crooks.”

Point being, decentralization is at once a Diatonic function and similar to a Protein domain.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domain

It is no wonder that business, being free(used to be somewhat in America)chose such a tactic as decentralization. I liken the Tea party movement as the epitome of change, even in its perhaps less than comely markers of birth. Some have remarked concerning a pendulum swinging as it must(think social vs. private)…well even more to the manipulation risistant dynamic-power leaks to were it is treated best; end of story.

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Illini (455 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 19:17 #72573 (in reply to #72571)

Kaimu,

It proves unions are fighting a defensive battle and their employees are throwing everything into it as a last gasp. Corps, meanwhile, play both sides, bending like a reed with a stronger leaning towards GOP. They will pick up the spoils with the total collapse of unions. Is that good? I don’t think so.

Login or register to post comments Blackrock at War With Bank of America Submitted by NYUGrad (2964 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 19:54 #72574

http://bit.ly/a3hFsf

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 20:04 #72575 (in reply to #72569)

Grym – “There is no real party in the sense of the Republican or Democratic parties. No national chairman or structure which can encompass such a diverse collection.”

In terms of political affiliation, polls have shown that Tea Party members are significantly more likely to be registered Republican, have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party and an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party. A Bloomberg News poll showed that 40% are 55 or older, 79% are white, 61% are men and 44% identify as “born-again” Christians, compared to 23.4%, 75%, 48.5%, and 34% for the general population, respectively. Other polls found that just 7% approve of how Obama is doing his job compared to 50% (as of April 2010) of the general public, and that roughly 77% of supporters voted for John McCain in 2008. [Wikipedia]

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by kaimu (1857 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 20:19 #72576 (in reply to #72573)

ALOHA!!

It proves unions are fighting a defensive battle and their employees are throwing everything into it as a last gasp.

From 1989 to 2009 that’s quite a long 20 YEAR+ “last gasp”! The last gasp is more likely the Counties and States and the Federal government Public Works projects that have been forced to pay the outlandishly high union labor rates and benefit costs via DAVIS BACON. The “last gasp” you refer to is not the unions but that of the US Taxpayers …

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 20:23 #72577 (in reply to #72571)

Kaimu – “Please-e-e, get your priorities straight and quit being such a sucker to the PSS(Political Stockholm Syndrome) …”

Political Stockholm Syndrome is something that has been absolutely mastered by the Republicans – i.e. a method of winning over groups to the sway of simplistic ideologies by imposing a fear paradigm. Just ask Dick Cheney – the public service announcements advising of terror alerts being raised from yellow to orange, etc, ensured Bush/Cheney’s reelection in 2004, and was pulled right out of Orwell’s 1984. Fear and paranoia sells – just ask Peter Schiff.

Login or register to post comments Futures … Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 20:39 #72578

Equities look green, dollar is green and gold is green – haven’t seen that for a while – are the inverse relationships coming to an end? Seems to indicate some optimism after the G20 meeting.

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

Login or register to post comments bond spreads Submitted by DavidV (45 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 20:58 #72579

I see two conflicting charts on low-grade bond spreads, which are supposed to be good indicators of the potential troubles in the stock market. The spreads on the CDX.NA.HY series are at the lowest levels in 2 months (according to markit), while

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/p…

shows that the spreads between Baa and 10Y Treasuries are at a multi-month high. Bloomberg reported a few days ago that the spreads are indeed at their lowest levels in a while, so it looks like markit is right. In that case, what is going on with Baa to 10Y spreads?

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Luggie (246 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 21:04 #72580 (in reply to #72575)

Hi Dave – Thanks for the education on demographics in our fractured system. Looks like the union representatives got to my Denver Bronco players after a briefing on Thursday, with a bit of work stoppage today. Eagerly anticipating my cup of tea on next tuesday evening. Happy Trading

Login or register to post comments “BofA Acknowledges Errors in Foreclosures” Submitted by NYUGrad (2964 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 21:47 #72581

BofA Acknowledges Errors in Foreclosures
http://bit.ly/dcjY3a

1st link to wall st journal article.

“By DAN FITZPATRICK

Bank of America Corp. for the first time acknowledged finding some mistakes in foreclosure files as it begins to resubmit documents in 102,000 cases.

The Charlotte, N.C., lender discovered errors in 10 to 25 out of the first several hundred foreclosure cases it examined starting last Monday. The problems included improper paperwork, lack of signatures and missing files, said people familiar with the results. In certain cases, information about the property and payment history didn’t match.”

Login or register to post comments Blood pressure control Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 21:51 #72582

Gotta do that every Sunday, really 🙂

http://photography.realitytrader.com/2010/10/autum…

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Dr. Strangelove (814 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 22:05 #72583 (in reply to #72577)

In regards to Dave M’s response to blaming Republicans for being the masters of Political Stockholm Syndrome, I’m scratching my head like a monkey.

http://tinyurl.com/m9kvn2

Login or register to post comments Clear Skys Submitted by MtnGntx (189 comments) on Sun, 10/24/2010 – 22:52 #72584

Well people, we really are approaching a new era. This represents the beginning of unilateral disclosure.

http://tinyurl.com/396d4g6

Patience for our governments to acknowledge a larger reality has run out. These sorts of displays will continue until our leaders accept a public discussion with those who have engineered these events. They will be focused here in the United States. Our world will never be the same. God bless.

Login or register to post comments Re: Clear Skys Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Mon, 10/25/2010 – 01:17 #72585 (in reply to #72584)

So a bunch of ETs are going to encourage the government do – what exactly? Come clean on the mortgage fraud issues? We can’t take care of our own business, so a bunch of out-of-town talent is going to make sure all ends well?

They didn’t fix Hitler, or Stalin, or the Cold War with all those nuclear weapons – they choose now to intervene? Really??

I mean, I talked about Deus Ex Machina before, but this is a bit beyond the pale.

Login or register to post comments April 1, 1995. USDJPY intraday low was $79.70 Submitted by NYUGrad (2964 comments) on Mon, 10/25/2010 – 01:36 #72586

Open 85.79
high 85.85
low 79.70
close 84.33

Overnight right now its hovering at 80.

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Ross (389 comments) on Mon, 10/25/2010 – 01:46 #72587 (in reply to #72555)

“Armstrong hardly disregards the context of Roman times. He simply views it from a monetary pespective.”

And therefore he completely misses the point. NOTHING can be simply viewed from a monetary perspective. The stew of a civilization contains many ingredients added at different times…

In short, for Greco Roman times let’s take the Polis and the religious meaning of a point and of weight. Lydian coinage was weight broken down into pieces of money as coins. The polis was an aggregation of an accumulation of people at a point certain.

Western money thought begins in the tracery cathedrals that are buttressed. A system of abstract force and mass. The coinage system of Lydian times has absolutely no meaning for us today aside from tokens representing money whether they are as coins or paper dollars.

Long story short, gold and silver have no place in Western money thought. If gold was money, it wouldn’t be quoted in dollars. It would be quoted in ounces. If you quote gold in dollars, then gold has a price. Every thing has a price. Gold has a price therefore it is just stuff quoted in someones currency.

I own some gold because a bunch of really silly people buy it and believe it to be money. With that bias from marginal buyers, it goes UP in dollars.

I know I just dinked a tiddly wink against the forehead of a true gold bug believer but seriously, the stuff is just a piece of clunky yellow metal. Personally I would rather own some water rights for the west Texas cotton lands.

I will gladly send Martin Armstrong some study materials. I’ve always believed in trying to rehabilitate convicted felons.

Remove two decimal points from the price of gold. Wow, it’s gone from $11.50 to $13.50. Big numbers get the excitable excited. I prefer percentage terms…

Thinking back to the trade of a generation, I’m wondering how we’re doing percentage wise.

Login or register to post comments Re: April 1, 1995. USDJPY intraday low was $79.70 Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Mon, 10/25/2010 – 02:21 #72588 (in reply to #72586)

so much for reversal. $ crashed through support to make a new low against the Yen. Will be watching to see if its a bear trap. This is the ‘new’, market based forces deciding currency issues is it?

http://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&t…

oh well, at least I get a little CHF leverage as I refund the IB account if these trends continue.

Login or register to post comments futures 3am – Asia gets a strong bid Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Mon, 10/25/2010 – 03:12 #72589

S&P+8.00 / +0.68%
Level1,188.70
Fair Value1,179.56
Difference9.14
Nasdaq+12.25 / +0.58%
Level2,116.25
Fair Value2,101.94
Difference14.31
Dow+66.00 / +0.60%
Level11,156.00

but still range bound. See ASX for example.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/npage/2_3051.html…

USD/JPY showing signs of further b/d. USD 76.91. Let’s see if it weakens further today. Note though that fresh lows are being made by Uncle Buck against the Yen. Other major currencies could turn into double tops or double bounces. Something to watch.

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Mon, 10/25/2010 – 05:18 #72590 (in reply to #72587)

Ross – “If you quote gold in dollars, then gold has a price. Every thing has a price. Gold has a price therefore it is just stuff quoted in someones currency.”

First of all, not everything has a price. What price peace of mind?

Secondly, stating that gold is quoted in dollars and therefore, isn’t money, doesn’t seem like a very strong argument. To disprove your argument, all I must do is find something that is considered money, that is quoted in dollars. Lets see, Euros. Euros are money, quoted in dollars.

Thirdly, I agree with your basic concept, namely, that gold has value only because we all THINK it has value. That’s true of most things that have scarcity but only relatively marginal real utility, including all currency, art, collectibles, and so on.

Gold is only different from fiat currency in that its difficult to make more gold, but not difficult to make more fiat currency. That’s why I “trust” it more than currency, even if I can’t take gold to the store and buy food. I can’t take euros to the store and buy food (in the US) either, but through a process of exchange, I can obtain dollars and with that buy food.

I think there is more enduring value in things that have real utility, like your cows, or water, or land, etc. But not everyone is in a place to own such things. What then, for those people? How do they store wealth?

Login or register to post comments futures 6am – CAC and DAX breaking out to new highs Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Mon, 10/25/2010 – 06:18 #72591

S&P+7.20 / +0.61%
Level1,187.90
Fair Value1,179.56
Difference8.34
Nasdaq+11.25 / +0.53%
Level2,115.25
Fair Value2,101.94
Difference13.31
Dow+59.00 / +0.53%
Level11,149.00

Forex screen says it all:

http://www.finviz.com/forex.ashx

$ dropping against major currencies. Treasury to Fed – “weekend jawboning ‘mission accomplished'”.

Following Patricks remarks in the post close report for the 22nd, it must be noted that futures peaked substantially higher overnight, which with vol. might lead to a challenge of the April high shortly.

bonne semaine a tous

Login or register to post comments Re: WSJ Opinion/Tea Party to the Rescue Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Mon, 10/25/2010 – 07:34 #72593 (in reply to #72575)

Dave,

“…polls have shown that Tea Party members are significantly more likely to be registered Republican…”

Perhaps like the founders they are thinking in republican terms (small “r”) as in “the republic for which it stands”.

Or… Perhaps they were leaning more likely to Democrat when Bush was in office and Obama is the current lightning rod.

My eldest son has a degree in statistics and has worked both in the commercial sector (consumer research) and for a single category (medical). After listening to some of his stories I take all polls to be nearly useless unless I know what was asked and how it was phrased.

I, for example, once (never again) voted for Obama, am white, male, 72, formerly “born again” (agnostic today) and in general favor the tea party protesting our in-your-face-government at local, state and national levels.

Being average is only useful to sell or destroy a point, IMO;-)

Login or register to post comments Re: Blood pressure control Submitted by wpepper (16 comments) on Mon, 10/25/2010 – 08:34 #72597 (in reply to #72582)

Vad,

Thanks for the pics. Were they taken on Victoria Island?

Login or register to post comments Re: Blood pressure control Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Mon, 10/25/2010 – 08:53 #72600 (in reply to #72597)

Glad you liked! Yes, it’s Victoria (name of the city, island is Vancouver Island 🙂

Login or register to post comments Being average Submitted by Luggie (246 comments) on Mon, 10/25/2010 – 20:49 #72694

Hi Gyrm – Not too sure you are with the average, I enjoy your insights. Speaking of – great day Bill! I credit my success over the years to your calm guidance here – especially your wisdom at the depth of the crisis with a big bet (for me)in TCK. Today the litter (34 pups) pulled 1.56%, but wondering when the time will come to turn them all loose. Happy Trading

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