Bill Cara’s Blog for Oct 21, 2010 [See post-close report]

October 21, 2010 by Bill Cara Bookmark and Share

Morning Call [7:58am ET] Buyers of risk may be returning to the market today to follow up yesterday’s gains. Those who sold their gold on Friday, Monday and Tuesday will be disappointed. Yesterday morning I issued a warning that, contrary to widespread and growing belief among near-sighted traders, the precious metals complex has not yet turned bearish.

For the currencies, the Euro is now up over 1.40 to the Dollar, while the $USD index is down almost to 77. A falling $USD supports rising equity prices as well as commodity prices and precious metals.

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As for the precious metals, I take the lead from Silver. When $SILVER hits about 24.25, the price will have broken the hourly downtrend line. The $GOLD future is a little slower on the uptick as usual, but a price today of about 1365 will clearly show that the hourly downtrend line has been broken.

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The overall picture really is one of an equity market being range-bound, with a bias to a downside breakout. Expect that traders will sell the high end of the range.

The next G-20 meeting and Fed meeting will be all about the stirred up currency markets that need calming or else trade wars will become serious. Watching international Bloomberg and CNBC last evening was like being stuck in a forex convention, everybody talking about whether the Dollar, Euro, Yuan, Yen, Aussie, were headed north or south.

For a long time now I have been saying that you cannot trade equities without monitoring currencies.

I don’t have much time for mid-week blogging, but if, as and when I do, I’ll be here.

Have a good day. But, I emphasize, don’t sell your gold just yet.

Catch of the Day

Good afternoon. Vad here. [3:06pm ET]

Let’s discuss the methods of bottom fishing once again. TNA chart shows two long entries of counter-trend kind. Interestingly enough, both trades have exact same structure – 51.70 break for a long trigger with stop under 51.60. The setups, however, are different. First entry is pure “capitulation” play. Sharp drop with volume spike indicates selling exhaustion, and exact entry is being determined by a)volume drop-off on the last red bar or two and b)little pause, couple quick moves between the support .60 and resistance .70, thus giving us the structure for the setup. TNA went to 1:3 r/r, then mercifully returned to re-test the support and give us second play. This time around it was double bottom setup confirmed by lower volume on the second low. We went with aggressive entry. In total deja vu, .70 break, stop under .60 and 1:3 r/r once again.

Notice one similarity in both entries, and keep in mind that this is extremely important one. We do not try to catch the bottom on the “left” side of the V-shaped bottom. We are trying to get in on the “right” side, AFTER the actual reversal. Details of each setup are different but this part is the same: entering on the “left” side is merely guessing, “right” side gives you some indications to build the structure of the trade. Sure, you will miss exact bottom but good luck to whoever tries to catch those.

tna_two_reversals.jpg

CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report

Good evening. Patrick here. [6:50pm ET]

Terrific Timmy Geithner’s comments last evening suggesting the US Dollar had fallen far enough seemed to spook the commodity markets as crude oil (USO-2.11%), silver (SLV-2.83%) and gold (GLD-1.39%) took it on the chin today. The selling in these markets spilled over into equities, an early rally on Wall Street fizzling out, traders booking profits and raising some cash.

Although the market finished near the flat line (S&P+0.18%) there were sizable moves in each direction Thursday, a rarity over the past few months. While the S&P declined -1.60% from the opening bulge, Bears were unable to keep the pressure on and the buyers emerged having no difficulty pushing prices back onto positive territory by the closing bell.

US Bonds (TLT-1.16%) are looking heavier by the day; as we have repeatedly stated higher long-term rates are a near certainty down the road and the increased cost of servicing debt will absolutely undermine any economic recovery.

Heading into the G20 meeting this weekend it makes sense for the oversold greenback to bounce up to 80-81 level, putting further pressure on commodities and providing an excuse for some sort of decline in the equity markets.

Until sellers can get the S&P under 1150 though the door remains open for a run up towards the yearly highs (1220). Banks – especially Bank of America (BAC-3.32%) – remain a problem and ultimately mortgage-gate could be the catalyst to spark a decline lasting more than three market hours.

Have a great evening.

AttachmentSize tna_two_reversals.jpg212.92 KB Login or register to post comments Bookmark and Share Comments GSK 3rd Quarter Results Submitted by Mark H (174 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 08:05 #72317

Q3 EPS before major restructuring of 28.2p*
Q3 dividend up 7% to 16p

Login or register to post comments Re: GSK 3rd Quarter Results Submitted by Mark H (174 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 08:15 #72319 (in reply to #72317)

GSK currently trading at 1268.5p -23.5

Total sales of £6.8 billion (-2%); sales +2% excluding pandemic and Avandia products

Login or register to post comments Cara 100 Ratings Changes For Thursday Submitted by Bull Hunter (1528 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 08:37 #72320

Good morning.

No POMO Scheduled For Today.

8:30 – Initial (-23,000)/Continuing Claims(-9000)
10:00 – Leading Indicators
10:00 – Philly Fed

Cara 100 Earnings (actual vs consensus):

CAT – (1.22 vs 1.09)
FCX – (2.49 vs 2.25)
MCD – (1.29 vs 1.25)
NOK – (.14 vs .10 euros)
NUE –

After the close: AMZN, BUCY, BCR, SNDK

—–

BA – PT Lifted from $75 to $81 @ RBC. Outperform

ECA – PT Lowered from $35 to $34 @ RBC. Sector Perform

—–

“Some people think the Federal Reserve Banks are the United States government’s institutions. They are not government institutions. They are private credit monopolies which prey upon the people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign swindlers” — Congressional Record 12595-12603 — Louis T. McFadden, Chairman of the Committee on Banking and Currency (12 years) June 10, 1932

Login or register to post comments Kaimu – a mid year update on the junior mining selection please? Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 08:38 #72321

noting some new names in your comments Kaimu. PEM, GRR etc. Or names you’ve previously spoken of but I’ve not noted or forgotten.

You canvased 5 junior miners at the Cara conference some 9 months ago while the next conference is another 6 months or so I hear. Would you mind putting a brief mid year summary and recommendation of your investment group that can be mulled over by the room please?

I took your BAC chart with a few junior PM names on it for comparison and pulled the time frame back 20 years. Wondering if some sector share price appreciation might be in the cards these coming years…

cheers

AttachmentSize BAC et al. 36.26 KB Login or register to post comments my read on PM is different Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 08:36 #72322

While dollar dipped this AM (pretrading hours), silver and gold made a lower high so far. There is weakness and distribution in PM. It will become more apparent when dollar spikes up again (a matter of time IMHO). It can also be seen on the new Kitco ticker showing gold moves independent from dollar.

Login or register to post comments Re: my read on PM is different Submitted by Bill Cara (1855 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 08:43 #72323 (in reply to #72322)

jack black,

The price when you wrote this was down further than when I penned my piece.

Login or register to post comments Re: Kaimu – a mid year update on the junior mining selection … Submitted by Bill Cara (1855 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 08:47 #72324 (in reply to #72321)

Les,

I had planned to hold a conference in late March or early April in Freeport, but have now made different plans for my residence an so will be re-thinking everything. I spent about $55,000 to cover the costs of the past two conferences and it was also a lot of work to organize. I’m likely to hold one for 2011, but will have to make it break-even somehow.

Login or register to post comments The World’s A Nicer Place In My Beautiful Balloon/ Downer Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 09:09 #72325

http://tinyurl.com/8yugwh

Right. I say sell it.

Login or register to post comments Re: Kaimu – a mid year update on the junior mining selection … Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 09:26 #72326 (in reply to #72324)

I’m likely to hold one for 2011, but will have to make it break-even somehow.

Sponsors are a great way to cover expenses. With the amount of exposure you have now (and being a NDQ contributor is likely to boost ‘Cara’ recognition further), it shouldn’t be difficult to come up with $55,000.

In addition (and maybe I’m wrong here), your pool of attendees swim in the deep end, and can afford higher rates.

Login or register to post comments Re: The World’s A Nicer Place In My Beautiful Balloon/ Downer Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 09:29 #72327 (in reply to #72325)

Of course, I would keep position sizes small until a sell-off ensues. There is no worse trauma in trading than being caught on the wrong end of a short-squeeze. I would know- having tried to short DELL in the nineties, and having also benefited greatly by being on the right side numerous times when prices ‘appeared’ unsustainable. So caution is warranted.

Login or register to post comments There are mosquitoes, there are vampires, Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 09:41 #72328

and then there is this:

09:36:13
Fannie Mae FHFA: Fannie and Freddie will need $221-363B in Treasury funding through 2013 (update)
– Fannie and Freddie have drawn $148B since going into govt conservatorship. Funding draw from Treasury through 2013 will be $142-259B if dividend payments to the Treasury are excluded.

Login or register to post comments Cara 100 Update (Final) Submitted by Bull Hunter (1528 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 09:45 #72329

ABT – estimates upped at Goldman through 2013. Company continues to show strong operating leverage. Neutral rating and $58 price target.

BA – PT Lifted from $83 to $86 @ Wedbush. Outperform

BA – estimates, target lowered at Goldman. BA estimates were cut through 2012. Company is facing higher pension costs and lower BDS margins. Buy rating and new $88 price target.

DOW – estimates lowered at Goldman through 2012. Company is seeing lower coatings margins and to reflect the Styron sale. Neutral rating and $30 price target.

ECA – estimates, target reduced at Goldman. Shares of ECA now seen reaching $32. Estimates also cut, given lower expected production and higher taxes. Sell rating.

UTX – PT Lowered from $86 to $85 @ RBC. Outperform

UTX – estimates trimmed at Credit Suisse. UTX 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates lowered to $4.74 and $5.34. Visibility improving. Maintain Outperform rating and $90 price target.

VALE – estimates, target boosted at Goldman. Shares of VALE now seen reaching $40. Estimates also upped, given higher expected iron ore prices. Buy rating.

Login or register to post comments Re: There are mosquitoes, there are vampires, Submitted by Mark H (174 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 09:51 #72330 (in reply to #72328)

Slow death of the U.S. dollar by exsanguination. Nice!

Login or register to post comments Re: Kaimu – a mid year update on the junior mining selection … Submitted by Bill Cara (1855 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 09:55 #72331 (in reply to #72326)

2nd_ave.

Re “it shouldn’t be difficult (via sponsors) to come up with $55,000.”

Actually, it is, but that’s not the point. My point is only that if these things are at break-even, I’d do a lot more, but to put out $55,000 in 14 months, plus all the hard work, is too much. A little altruism is fine, but I’m not the Red Cross Society as a friend pointed out recently. 🙂

Login or register to post comments Oh, what a wicked web…. Submitted by MtnGntx (189 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 09:57 #72332

CFTC administrative law judge George H. Painter stands up to be counted among the honest and well-intentioned… (I’m standing and applauding):

http://tinyurl.com/22telyk

And here is a bonus brief cause the dam is really showing cracks now:
http://tinyurl.com/2ewzman

Login or register to post comments Adding to TZA @ 22.26 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 10:01 #72333

This can’t end well. Of course, that could apply to me as well.

Login or register to post comments UUP slowly started to move up Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 10:05 #72334

Although betting on this is as emotionally tasking as betting on TZA at the end of August. I guess the best trades are the most difficult ones. I also added to QQQQ puts seeing the lack of strength in it. Double top in QQQQ?

Login or register to post comments VXX @ 13.44 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 10:08 #72335

Vad- I think you got it. I’m betting they start cranking out more buttons per minute per machine at the average clothing factory in Thailand. Now that we know the underlying metrics for VXX.

Login or register to post comments Re: UUP slowly started to move up Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 10:10 #72336 (in reply to #72334)

emotionally tasking

Now there’s an appropriate description of what day trading is all about, and a good explanation for why we’re all so drained at the end of each day.

Login or register to post comments Re: UUP slowly started to move up Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 10:17 #72337 (in reply to #72336)

I’m thinking this may not be worth the effort, to be honest. I’m definitely keeping my day job.

By the way, UUP dropped just after I wrote above and my QQQQ puts stopped out. The loss was minimal.

Login or register to post comments Impulse move up Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 10:20 #72338

Yeah, the TZA/VXX cuts are starting to sting.

Login or register to post comments Hangin’ with the bears Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 10:27 #72339

(a) Just isn’t much fun.
(b) And I mean ‘hangin’ in every sense of the word.

Login or register to post comments Re: Impulse move up Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 10:33 #72340 (in reply to #72338)

I was stopped out of VXX. Watching for a few to see strength or weakness from here.

Login or register to post comments Re: UUP slowly started to move up Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 10:36 #72341 (in reply to #72337)

jack- That’s a good lesson in position sizing/amount at risk/stops. With large position sizes/amounts at risk, I don’t any trader has the emotional stamina to hold through a drawdown. Unless he/she is emotionally detached to point of being a little ‘off.’

Login or register to post comments Re: UUP slowly started to move up Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 10:37 #72342 (in reply to #72336)

emotionally tasking

Now there’s an appropriate description of what day trading is all about, and a good explanation for why we’re all so drained at the end of each day.

Only as long as one is fighting the market… Let it work for you instead, and all of a sudden trading turns not only into rewarding endeavor but fun too.

Login or register to post comments TZA/VXX> Closed @ 22.05/13.29 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 10:40 #72343

Alright. I have to walk away from that trade.

Login or register to post comments Re: VXX @ 13.44 Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 10:40 #72344 (in reply to #72335)

LOL, took me a few blinks to remember what you refer to… this I guess:

[10:38] {Threei} I abandoned it completely
[10:38] {Threei} never saw worse tracking ETF
[10:39] {Threei} it may track the patterns of manufacturing ivory buttons for blouses in South Argentina for all I know

Login or register to post comments Re: UUP slowly started to move up Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 10:43 #72345 (in reply to #72342)

Yeah, I have my own psychological baggage to deal with )

Login or register to post comments Re: my read on PM is different Submitted by Bill Cara (1855 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 10:44 #72346 (in reply to #72322)

jack black,

Everything we say or do today much be affixed to a time horizon. While I do believe that PM’s are going higher in the short-run (0-90 days), I did take a fairly big loss on Fri-Mon-Tue, so after the bounce yesterday, I took about a 41% portfolio weighting off the table until I see what happens in the currency market. PM’s are under near-term pressure (0-30 days) from profit-takers, but most of these traders have a very short time horizon. I expect them to return soon. If they decide today or tomorrow is the day, I plan to be there.

Login or register to post comments Re: There are mosquitoes, there are vampires, Submitted by teamonfuego (2248 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 11:07 #72347 (in reply to #72328)

Just like analysts that project earnings 3 years out, I don’t trust the FHFA’s estimates 3 years out. What if the economy rebounds stronger than expected, which is what stocks are starting to portend? Wouldn’t job growth be stronger than expected? Keep in mind that the jobs losses in the past recession was far greater than the drop in GDP, relatively speaking. So it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility that jobs could rebound stronger than expected. And with that all of these huge loss projections would be completely wiped away.

Login or register to post comments Markets showing some weakness Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 11:08 #72348

Grabbing some TZA here at 22. Tight stop.

Login or register to post comments Re: TZA/VXX> Closed @ 22.05/13.29/ Waving Goodbye Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 11:30 #72349 (in reply to #72343)

Both of them are waving at me with smiles on their faces as they take off without me. It happens. All the time.

At least I didn’t get get pulled into ‘chasing the train’ with the crowd. I wonder how they’re feeling right now.

Login or register to post comments Re: TZA/VXX> Closed @ 22.05/13.29/ Waving Goodbye Submitted by invariate (11 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 11:34 #72350 (in reply to #72349)

Happens to me too, more than I’d care to admit. Today I went with an unleveraged short (SH) and a wider stop. A little less stress. So far, so good.

Login or register to post comments Re: TZA/VXX> Closed @ 22.05/13.29/ Waving Goodbye Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 11:37 #72351 (in reply to #72349)

Yeah do it all the time too. Watch ticker USU here. If it goes up from 5.16 we’ll be going up. If it goes down we’ll be going down. Works about every time. When you’re only buying and selling to yourself. You can probably move the market.

Login or register to post comments Rare earths opportunities Submitted by lowell (36 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 11:40 #72352

I noticed that yesterday’s comments had quite a few participants asking about the opportunities in the rare earths sector. For what it’s worth I contacted my brother about it, as he trades speciality metals and rare earths for his livelihood. He’s holding a particular rare earth in inventory(I don’t think it’s ethical to give the name) and plans to purchase more non-Chinese rare earths in the future. He says the market is very hot right now, that it’s probably a bubble, but it keeps getting crazier. He also said that there is so much hot air about North American rare earth mining stocks. As an ex bond trader myself it seems that Bill’s comments about inside knowledge and RSI apply here as well: caveat emptor!

Login or register to post comments Re: Markets showing some weakness Submitted by teamonfuego (2248 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 11:47 #72353 (in reply to #72348)

Excellent entry! Hope you’re gonna sell. Dollar strength is momentarily causing this selloff in stocks/commodities. My gut tells me this is yet another bear trap. I believe the dollar is strengthening because the US economy is strengthening. Just look to the Euro as an example of how equities (i.e., European equities) can go up at the same time that the currency goes up.

Login or register to post comments Re: my read on PM is different Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 11:50 #72354 (in reply to #72346)

Bill, in the past couple of days I’ve seen gold under-reacting to the currency moves – and under-reacting in the bad direction, which says to me there’s still selling pressure there (and/or a lack of buying). It is feeling quite a bit different from the last few times gold took a tumble. Just my two cents.

Login or register to post comments Re: Markets showing some weakness Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 12:03 #72355 (in reply to #72353)

I’ll try and keep them up. This is all speculation of course.

Taking profits if we break 1185 S&P.

Login or register to post comments Re: There are mosquitoes, there are vampires, Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 12:08 #72356 (in reply to #72347)

TOF,

You have expressed optimism regarding the economy before. What do you see that I don’t?

Whose economy? USA, Europe? Asia? Global?

Are you thinking the move in equities from a ten year downward trend is reversing or simply a rally in the longer trend?

Are you seeing signs where you live and extrapolating?

What time frame are you talking about?

Login or register to post comments Re: TZA/VXX> Closed @ 22.05/13.29/ Waving Goodbye Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 12:11 #72357 (in reply to #72349)

LOL!
Same with QQQQ puts.
I’ll wait for a rebound before shorting more.

Login or register to post comments Re: The World’s A Nicer Place In My Beautiful Balloon/ Downer Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 12:28 #72358 (in reply to #72327)

I think this song by Lennon/McCartney is appropriate for the markets in general.

PS – I noticed that your Mad World song from Black Hawk Down and Knifecatcher’s link to the Doors The End both had helicopter themes – were you subconsciously thinking of Ben?

Login or register to post comments Re: There are mosquitoes, there are vampires, Submitted by teamonfuego (2248 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 12:32 #72359 (in reply to #72356)

Grym – I’m an investor/trader so to me it’s all about earnings my friend. Earnings, earnings, earnings. People correlate the economy with the market too much. The economy is way too complex and diverse for me to understand everything about it and assume that my opinion of it is (a) correct and (b) relevant to how stocks will do.

Poeple think well how can we possibly be up 75% from the lows when GDP growth is only 2%? Well, what if we sold off way too much when we were going down? A lot of people here, including myself, initially thought 900 to 1,000 was a great point to start buying back in back in 2008. If that was indeed a great buying point then we’re only up about 20 to 30% from that point over 2 years (or 10 to 15% per year returns)….not exactly insane returns.

Earnings will come in around $85/share for the S&P this year. That means that the P/E of the S&P right now is 13.8. That’s pretty damn low. Add to this that companies can easily raise debt at levels lower than their stock yields and it tells me that stocks are very cheap.

Of my friends that I talk to the most about business, one of whom is in the tech sector and one of whom is a head hunter in financial services and manufacturing in southern California, both are saying that things are significantly better recently. I own a couple of furniture retail businesses and my sales are up significantly year over year and I’m definitely seeing small businesses (i.e., yogurt stores, cafes, lounges, bars, hotels) pick up their spending significantly lately.

I don’t know, I’m just not nearly as pessimistic as most people are.

Login or register to post comments Re: Oh, what a wicked web…. Submitted by Seamus (378 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 12:37 #72360 (in reply to #72332)

Reference Judge Painter

Looks like someone wanted to take shots at Judge Painter after the Notice and Order. Other side leaking info from his pending divorce proceeding.

WSJ: Case Sheds Light on Judge
By SARAH N. LYNCH

WASHINGTON—An administrative law judge at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission heard and decided cases during a period when his wife said he struggled with mental illness and alcoholism, court records show.

http://tinyurl.com/2dd3tr2

Login or register to post comments … Submitted by baz22 (1439 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 13:13 #72361

watching ‘ my ‘… around upper $ 8’s will put it in the 40/ish p.e. area.. recently lost bids on huge offshore China project, but racking up smaller orders overseas.. no US data yet.. on watch.

Login or register to post comments gold today Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 13:15 #72362

Its down almost $20 (1.44%), with the buck struggling to be up 0.2%. To me, that’s an outsized reaction. It looks like someone pulled the plug on the buying for the time being. My guess is though, there will come a time when the tap gets turned back on, and we’ll be off to the races once again. Just the time between now and then will be less fun than usual for holders of the shiny metal. One of which is me.

Login or register to post comments Re: gold today Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 13:33 #72363 (in reply to #72362)

Gold went up 20% from July 28 low to October 14th high, but USD only dropped 6.9% in that same time, so if it can go up quickly it can also go down quickly. I’ve reposted Twigg’s link suggesting USD will likely test 80 again.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2010-…

Login or register to post comments CAT down. Submitted by goldbug58 (146 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 13:36 #72364

Beat estimates on higher sales in quarter; better than avg volume and down to 78.25 after trading as high as 81.20 earlier. More selling the news? Hmmm…somehow I don’t get it.

Login or register to post comments IWM Submitted by Chris (5 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 13:37 #72365

Any thoughts why it’s noticeably lagging today. Stronger dollar should be hitting the big caps more.

Login or register to post comments Re: CAT down. Submitted by jet8400 (180 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 13:47 #72366 (in reply to #72364)

Forward looking the profits must not look as good. People who buy now are paying off the people who got it right months ago while they’re taking their gains.

Login or register to post comments Re: gold today Submitted by SiO2 (470 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 13:51 #72367 (in reply to #72363)

DaveM. “dollar only dropped by 6.9%”

-6.9% compared to what? If that is the DX, that is a basket of other currencies, including Euro, Yen, British Pound, Loonie, Kroner, SFs. Some are strong, others are not, some are printing, others are not, some drop, others go up. If CT is making this comparison, seems naive.

Login or register to post comments Re: IWM Submitted by BillySundance (761 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 13:52 #72368 (in reply to #72365)

Chris – IWM was outperforming SPY pretty consistently from about August 25th through October 15th. It looks to me that small/mid-caps have just gotten over-extended and money is flowing out and looking for more defensive positioning.

Here is a look at the IWM:SPY ratio chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM:SPY&p=D&b=5&g…

Login or register to post comments Re: gold today Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 13:53 #72369 (in reply to #72363)

Further to my comment about golds 20% rise from July to October, I noticed tin went up 33% and lead went up 37% in that time. Now I wonder if I can fit some in my safety deposit box?

Login or register to post comments $LVS and other shorts Submitted by Schleppy (83 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 13:57 #72370

Still holding 2/3 of my $LVS short from $39.11 and started short today in NFLX at $173.25…unfortunately sold my $DZZ this morning at $9.01 from $8.64.

Login or register to post comments Re: CAT down. Submitted by teamonfuego (2248 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:04 #72371 (in reply to #72364)

CAT was the tell today. This turnaround is reminiscent of the turnaround back in June. I’m pulling back my horns on this a bit. Sold off my BYD (except still holding the calls) at a small loss, but I started a tiny position in REDF at $4.38 and added a lot more down around $4.18 average.

EDIT:
Added more REDF at $4.17. Stock is now down 35% from its recent highs. I still think this thing is a tremendous value given the amount of traffic going to its site BEFORE the India broadband spectrum kicks into gear and brings broadband internet to the masses in India (currently there are only 10 MILLION users of broadband internet in India vs a population of about 1.2 BILLION). REDF is the 10th most trafficked site in India. By comparison, MakeMyTrip.com (MMYT) is the 105th most trafficked. MMYT has a market cap that is 6 times REDF’s.

Login or register to post comments Re: CAT down. Submitted by gforce (400 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:05 #72372 (in reply to #72364)

Curious and orderly, hey that rings a bell. I did lower the risk today myself.

Login or register to post comments Know who the real pillaging “PIGS” are Submitted by kris (7 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:07 #72373

wonderful long article explaining the whole story in simple understandable language, should work as a primer for the upcoming G20 situation exposing the real currency manipulators, for those of us who are brainwashed to believe
the ROTHSCHILDs, Buffets,glen becks, jon stewarts, lady gagas.

http://www.alternet.org/story/148481/

Login or register to post comments Re: gold today Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:07 #72374 (in reply to #72367)

SiO2 – I just pulled the numbers from $USD on Stockcharts, as I assumed that the price based on the basket of currencies would be the basis for most comparisons. Gold is a good USD hedge, but it peaked in Euros and Australian dollars on June 7, so it all depends where you live. An ounce of gold has dropped 11% in ASD since June 7, so it wouldn’t be a good hedge for a strong currency.

Login or register to post comments Re: The World’s A Nicer Place In My Beautiful Balloon/ Downer Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:08 #72375 (in reply to #72358)

Dave M- You’re right. If Uncle Ben’s Converted Currency can’t save us, we’ll all be stuck in Somalia without a safety net.

Login or register to post comments $TF_F Submitted by Schleppy (83 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:11 #72376

Long here for a trade – stop just below LOD.

Login or register to post comments Reverse Repo Submitted by Schleppy (83 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:14 #72377

Looks like this could be our culprit –

http://bit.ly/cQVuRW

Login or register to post comments Re: CAT down. Submitted by teamonfuego (2248 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:22 #72378 (in reply to #72372)

I still ignorantly think that this is a BUYING opportunity. I’m still just as long this market as I was this morning (just shifted a few positions around) and still think we’re going to be higher. These selloffs are just working off the overbought conditions in the market in my mind.

Login or register to post comments Re: CAT down/ Dogs down also Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:27 #72379 (in reply to #72371)

BAC, AA, XOM, INTC.

Just arrived back home from a morning MD appointment. I had to close flat prior to leaving, of course, and no telling whether I would have jumped back into short mode had I been trading.

When my own trades mark a reversal, I can either (a) hang myself by the thumbs or (b) fire up the grill for a good steak. If taking a multiple choice exam and at a loss, it’s been statistically proven that choice (b) wins hands down (I can only say for sure this was true in the eighties).

Login or register to post comments Re: CAT down. Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:27 #72380 (in reply to #72378)

On a longer time frame (>2 weeks), I would agree. Over the next 2 weeks, I don’t think so. We may go much lower. So I would not be carrying more than a pocketful of REDF for laughs. Seriously.

Login or register to post comments Re: CAT down. Submitted by Schleppy (83 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:28 #72381 (in reply to #72378)

The dips have continued to be buying opportunities and that will work until it doesn’t. My concerns are this has been a liquidity injection/dollar weakness rally. Those two trends are reversing so far today. I would be surprised if we didn’t see a short term bounce here. Which is why I’m long some Uncle Russ – I would expect a bonce after being down 21 handles from the HOD. Watching the leaders, AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, BIDU etc.

Login or register to post comments Re: Waving Goodbye, but from the lifeboat. Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:38 #72382 (in reply to #72357)

jack- At least we’re sailing in the one named ‘Lost Opportunity.’ We’re not stuck on the Titanic (which I can kind of spot from here).

Login or register to post comments Re: There are mosquitoes, there are vampires, Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:39 #72383 (in reply to #72359)

TOF,

“What if the economy rebounds stronger than expected, which is what stocks are starting to portend?”

This is what raised the questions for me, but I guess your “stronger than expected” is key here.

Since I never pay attention to data expectations by the vague “expecters” may be I’m on a whole different wave length.

I don’t see the stocks as indicating the economy in any real way — simply what the hype, smoke and gurus (salespeople) babble on about.

For that matter, since my trading is slow and cautious I pay little attention P/Es anymore. What I am concerned about is the lack of need to spend for business and the fear of individuals with the massive job problems.

The markets move on such nebulous info that it’s just not something I care to deal with. I’m only concerned with protecting my principal now that I’m no longer working.

To me California is more like a foreign country and a whole other economic model than the Midwest 😉 Things have been in a down draft here for 20 years, so it’s hard not to be a pessimist.

Thanks for the clarification.

Login or register to post comments Re: There are mosquitoes, there are vampires, Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:42 #72384 (in reply to #72383)

To me California is more like a foreign country and a whole other economic model than the Midwest 😉

If you walk around the big cities here, you’ll notice it is a foreign country. With a DMZ that separates the North and South, no less.

Login or register to post comments Bill remarked he liked SNDK, Submitted by gforce (400 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 15:13 #72385 (in reply to #72381)

Bill remarked he liked SNDK, RIMM, INTC, MSFT, HPQ back just a little bit. I wonder if he still does?

follow up:
Bill also said he would indicate when he was using ZSL when someone asked him earlier…

edit:
Sorry, I forgot that Bill C. said he could be unable to answer anything today and depends on his schedule.

Login or register to post comments watch USD/JPY @ 81.30 Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:48 #72386

it’s perhaps too obvious, but a nice ascending triangle intraday:

http://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&t…

Login or register to post comments Re: IWM Submitted by Chris (5 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 14:53 #72387 (in reply to #72368)

Thanks, Billy.

This pullback is accompanied by bond weakness and higher rates, as well as stronger dollar and weak crude. Lets see if the bulls can pull another one out of the hat this p.m. or tomorrow.

Login or register to post comments Re: There are mosquitoes, there are vampires, Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 15:03 #72388 (in reply to #72383)

Grym,

I remember your post from last week when you mentioned the high unemployment and generally dismal economy in the Midwest. In Canada, the province of Newfoundland and Labrador has contended with high unemployment since joining Canada in 1949. It currently sits at 14%, which is much better than the 20% it has averaged over the past twenty years. Many have left over the years, seeking jobs in Alberta or Tranna (aka Toronto). Despite the hard times, year after year Canadian surveys find that Newfoundlanders donate more to charity per capita than all other provinces. It has a small population of just over 500,000, but also has some of the lowest crime rates in Canada, where they can go an entire year without one murder. Times might be hard, but people need to learn to help one another.

Login or register to post comments See Vad’s Catch of the Day Submitted by Jack Senett (66 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 15:09 #72389

Right after Bill’s Morning Call.

Login or register to post comments TZA/VXX @ 23.25/13.42 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 15:17 #72390

Later

Login or register to post comments Re: TZA/VXX @ 23.25/13.42 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 15:27 #72391 (in reply to #72390)

I must be in the twilight zone. Went through this around 22.25/13.42 earlier in the day. Not my day, obviously.

Login or register to post comments mcquarrie research Submitted by westcoaster (336 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 15:29 #72392

Just reviewed my notes from Cara conference Freeport. Chris Start placed a $4.50 target on CRK.TO. At the time it was trading around $1.70. FD, Holding some purchases i mentioned recently.

Some other names to consider for trades:
This from Macq Cdn operation. This will give you some names to trade.
Another major report from Macquarie research, focusing on the mining sector was also released this morning by Pierre Vaillancourt in preparation for the Canadian earnings season. Mr. Vaillancourt had the following synopsis:

Chinese apparent demand to rebound. China continues to experience strong growth in end-use markets for crude steel and base metals. Auto production is up 40%, housing under construction is up 29% and fixed asset investment in infrastructure is up 25% YTD. We expect apparent demand for commodities to grow as destocking in China eases, however, higher copper TCs and greater availability of scrap suggest more volatility in the near term.

We continue to favour copper producers. Heading into 2011, we are bullish on copper, lead, iron ore as well as metallurgical and thermal coal. We are neutral on aluminum and zinc. Among equities, we prefer First Quantum for its pipeline of growth projects, including the recent deal to acquire Antares Minerals and its Haquira project in Peru. We also favour Quadra FNX and Capstone for their improving operations and Iberian Minerals for the value it offers at current levels. We like Teck for its unmatched exposure to both met coal and copper, two of our preferred commodities in 2011.

Login or register to post comments Re: mcquarrie research Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 15:43 #72393 (in reply to #72392)

I’ve held First Quantum, Quadra and Teck in past and wish I never sold them. They have outperformed all of the larger Canadian gold stocks this year. If copper drops again I will pick up all three, but they look overbought right now. All are up at least 600% to 1000% from their 2008 lows.

Login or register to post comments Re: $TF_F Submitted by Schleppy (83 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 15:49 #72394 (in reply to #72376)

Sold my long at 696.50 from 689.90

Login or register to post comments Re: There are mosquitoes, there are vampires, Submitted by MoKat (214 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 16:00 #72395 (in reply to #72328)

SON OF TARP > Set to conquer mortgage jungle

Forcing the banks to buy back junk Fannie and Freddie mortgages won’t work as they don’t have the capital reserves.
The game of hot potato continues. Jim Rickards indicates a return of a 2008 like banking crisis will repeat mid 2011. (thanks GForce for the heads up on the Rickards interview at Kingworld) At least we know where some of QEII will go. Add in the costs of the foreclosure gate and the lawyer feeding frenzy and the big banks are going to really take a *hit. Time to pick up some SKF and TBT? or “Don’t fight the FED?”

When the supply of debt greatly exceeds the demand, interest rates should rise. Another bank blowout could be the catalyst for a bond market collapse with the FED losing its ability to manipulate rates. Remember those massive interest rate derivatives that lie dormant while waiting to explode. Tick tick tick.

No wonder Congress had a hearing for confiscation of a portion of 401K and IRA funds to purchase Treasury bonds with phony rates. If foreigners are unable or unwilling to purchase newly issued US debt, somebody has to step up or the whole Ponzi will fall apart. Another scheme is to eliminate FDIC on bank CD’s and money markets. Gotta by a
Treasury if you want the printing press link.

Login or register to post comments Re: Waving Goodbye, but from the lifeboat. Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 16:08 #72396 (in reply to #72382)

2nd – “jack- At least we’re sailing in the one named ‘Lost Opportunity.’ We’re not stuck on the Titanic (which I can kind of spot from here).”

2nd – does this mean that you are Rose?

Login or register to post comments AMZN bid 156 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 16:15 #72397

Login or register to post comments how to short cotton? Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 16:20 #72398

While my SLV/SLW/GLD shorts are doing just fine, I’m trying to nail the insane cotton bubble. However, BAL and JJS are not available to short and there are no option on those!

I shorted DBA a couple of days ago, but I was actually stopped out today. I also bought some ADZ and this one works and is in the money (slightly) so far.
I also shorted DE as a surrogate for cotton (?), small position only.

As there a direct way to short cotton, besides futures? Haw hard is it to learn future trading?

Login or register to post comments Re: Waving Goodbye, but from the lifeboat. Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 16:21 #72399 (in reply to #72396)

Good one.

Login or register to post comments Re: Waving Goodbye, but from the lifeboat. Submitted by gforce (400 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 16:32 #72400 (in reply to #72399)

Hey guys do you think the medical area will have access to needed capital and growth or will get pulled under by the vortex as goes down? I am curious about companies like ASTM, etc.

Thanks

Login or register to post comments SNDK bid 40 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 16:38 #72401

Login or register to post comments Re: TZA/VXX > I’m bidding them good night. Cash/Cash bar Submitted by 2nd_ave (4865 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 16:41 #72402 (in reply to #72391)

Vad’s right. Another day of fighting the tape- it’s too much work.

Login or register to post comments Re: There are mosquitoes, there are vampires, Submitted by teamonfuego (2248 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 16:54 #72403 (in reply to #72395)

Mokat – it’s this kind of talking that makes me even more bullish. Everyone is so scared of the next crisis that they are missing out on opportunities right in front of their eyes. People think that banks aren’t prepared for another crisis…umm, if they don’t believe the Fed and our government forced banks to significantly reduce risk / hoard cash, they’re crazy. I’m more worried about missing out on the next PIR/SCSS/XL/CBS/WYN/CAR/etc (i.e., stocks tied to a recovery in the US that are still significantly beaten down because investors are convinced that the US economy can’t rebound) than about the markets crashing.

Login or register to post comments the unwatched pot Submitted by davefairtex (2417 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 17:33 #72404

So while we’re all so focused on gold, or equities, TLT has been making lower highs and lower lows. Isn’t that called a bear move? As a guy who tends to focus on deflation, it confuses me, but that’s what the charts are saying, so I’m paying attention. TLT was down a big -1.21 today, and this on a day when the market itself was basically flat.

Gold got clobbered, the buck was up a bit, oil got hit too, and silver and natural gas were taken to the woodshed. So where did the money go? Cotton, Coffee, and Lumber? Yeah right.

Bonds are starting to look ill to me. Is this the sneaky, under the radar approach of the Bond Vigilantes?

Login or register to post comments Re: the unwatched pot Submitted by jack black (920 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 18:32 #72405 (in reply to #72404)

I watch them. I actually had a nice TBT position since end of august but got stopped out with only minimal gains. I tried to reenter couple of times since but my timing was poor. I’m not going to chase it now as it is at upper BB and will probably bounce down from here.

I hear you about NatGas. This is the most destroyed asset (dollar being close second) now. I plan to jump in but only after some constructive price action. I tried to catch a bottom in this dog a few times already.

Login or register to post comments Sponsors for Cara 2011 Submitted by loannetter (844 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 23:37 #72406 (in reply to #72331)

Bill, Perhaps you’ve considered this. I’m sure there are a few corporate marketing gurus among your loyal readership who have benefitted from your generosity to date and know people who would appreciate a spot on your platform. For example: IB could offer a demo to a captive audience. (Tough to get that assignment in the Bahammas.)

Perhaps this is the place to canvas for sponsors. Given all the plugs various other blogs, industry groups, authors, news media and trading platforms get here for NOTHING all year! You could do a keyword search of the last couple of years of recommendations and find out how many mentions are made and send them your stats. Mentions on Cara could be tracked with their website activity stats.

(Guessing Mr. Geithner might not fork out since it’s not his money he spends no matter how often we mention his name 🙂

Login or register to post comments Geithner / Bernanke – Good Cop / Bad Cop Submitted by Dave M (214 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 18:56 #72407

It seems the dollar goes down on every word Bernanke utters, and goes up when Geithner says something. I’m guessing that before QE2 starts in earnest, they try to get the dollar over 80 and gold under $1250, so when the dollar deflates again after November 3 it will be from a higher benchmark than today, taking it back down to 75 range and gold back to 1350 – 1400. Wash/Rinse/Repeat

Login or register to post comments A Fresh Look at What Caused the 1987 Crash Submitted by westcoaster (336 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 19:32 #72408

An interesting retrospective. Provides perspective on today.
Greenspan one of those implicated, pointed to as having made a rookie mistake. Treas. Sec another. Currency wars. Taxation changes. All sound familiar? An interesting aspect of it were leaders like Baker (calling out currency deflators), SEC (prosecutions) who were not milquetoast. And it was a bubble that they were deflating.

Login or register to post comments Re: A Fresh Look at What Caused the 1987 Crash Submitted by westcoaster (336 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 19:34 #72409 (in reply to #72408)

http://www.navellier.com/blogs/entry.aspx?ID=169

Login or register to post comments Re: A Fresh Look at What Caused the 1987 Crash Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1559 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 20:23 #72410 (in reply to #72409)

I am not sure what the purpose of his intellectual exercise is… The article could have ended after this (absolutely correct) paragraph:

The first thing to remember about historic panics is that they generally follow parabolic increases during “manic” episodes of over-the-top greed. In the biggest crashes of the last century, like 1907, 1929, 1987 and 2000, the market was already high, but then it shot 50% higher in a year or so. A quarter century ago, the market was rising to all-time highs throughout 1985 and 1986. Then it took off in a hockey-stick rise in 1987.

That’s it. Nothing more is needed. All who wanted to buy, bought. No more buyers left. Every buyer is a potential seller – thus, moment comes when they do not find bidders anymore. Who said what to start panic is nothing more than historical curiosity. Crash would have found the reason to happen in any case.

Login or register to post comments .. Comrade Kuppy Submitted by baz22 (1439 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 21:53 #72411

https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/content/specia…

Login or register to post comments Re: gold today Submitted by loannetter (844 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 21:59 #72412 (in reply to #72362)

davefairtex,

“whom”, dave…”one of whom is me”…just don’t think of yourself as an object OK?

Login or register to post comments Re: gold today Submitted by Ross (389 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 22:35 #72413 (in reply to #72412)

Loannetter is a closet schoolmarm. She be a eddicated girl…

All in fun.

Login or register to post comments Foreclosure Fraud blow by blow by blow by blow by blow… Submitted by loannetter (844 comments) on Thu, 10/21/2010 – 23:34 #72414

OK, I know this is hard to believe, but one of the famed robo-signers, was also an employee of MERS, AND employed by the very same attorney, David J. Stern who has netted a mooted $105 Million + in legal fees by foreclosing on thousands of Florida homes for the likes of BAC. Stern’s firm not only created some lovely facimile documents for MERS up front, but helped grease the tracks for foreclosures. Mr. Stern, a neighbor of Jay Leno, also a collector of expensive autos, paid $15M for his waterfront pad we all paid for and another $8M for the house next door to bulldoze for tennis courts! Makes you feel all warm and cosy investing your hard earned in the US financial markets doesn’t it?

Check out the deposition revelations. No signature? No problem!
http://tinyurl.com/robosigners

Login or register to post comments Re: the unwatched pot Submitted by Ross (389 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 00:02 #72415 (in reply to #72404)

Bond Vigilantes, if there ever were any, were long ago lulled by the siren sounds of marketers. Anyone who purchased a million in debt was given a musical CD to be played at bedtime. It sounded like gentle sloshing waves on the moonlit shores of a tropical paradaise that allowed one to envision topless native girls whose nipples always pointed……..up! ( in reference to a great movie ‘Soldier In The Rain.’)

‘Bond Vigilantes’ is the biggest urban legend since Robbing Hood. It is also one reason that ignorant people or managers of other peoples money continue to run run run to the ‘safety’ of sovereign debt.

Syllogisticaly:

We have too much debt.
Debt is the sand in the gears of future growth.
We must extinguish debt in order to grow.
There are only two ways to extinguish debt. We default OR over time debase the purchasing power of the interest and principle that we owe (and hope that the owners of said debt don’t really get pissed off.)

I would direct you to an interview on ‘King World News’ with a kid named Zulauf. He has a funny accent and is therefore an expert! Well, he is actually a mini-me when he lays out the way the world will work and he does it in 15 only minutes.

Another kid, (Fleckenstein) a greying hippie haired raconteur of all things meaningfully related to finance and fine wine has on the masthead of his service;

“In A Social Democracy With A Fiat Currency, All Roads Lead To Inflation.”

I own a very chunky position in TBT. Should the price decline during QE-II, I will happily catch that knife.

It is a rare opportunity when one may ‘bet’ against the stupidity of one’s government and ‘earn’ enough to escape same.

Login or register to post comments Re: the unwatched pot Submitted by kaimu (1857 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 00:28 #72416 (in reply to #72415)

ALOHA!!

It is a rare opportunity when one may ‘bet’ against the stupidity of one’s government and ‘earn’ enough to escape same.

Ross, these people in government are not “stupid”, rather they have positioned themselves as a monopoly since 1913 and as such are exercising their power as a monopoly. A monopoly will always act as a monopoly. It is human nature for politicians and bankers to abuse their power. In reality what you are betting on is the predictability of human nature and the power of Human Action. In other words if you hand a “human” a blank check they will fill it with as many 9s as they can and cash it! The system has no fiscal brakes. Its not stupidity at all, its by “design” …

Login or register to post comments Re: the unwatched pot Submitted by loannetter (844 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 00:52 #72417 (in reply to #72416)

Aloha HA!

More on the monopoly from the GSE stats for 2010:

“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continued to play dominant roles in the U.S. mortgage finance market in the first half of 2010, well into their second year in government conservatorship, with no exit strategy in sight. Even with volume down from year-ago levels, Fannie and Freddie generated a hefty $397.1 billion in single-family mortgage securities during the first half of 2010. That represented about 64 percent of all mortgage-backed securities issued in that period.

California remains the biggest source of Fannie and Freddie mortgages despite the state’s exposure to the meltdown in the housing market. In fact, the Golden State’s 22 percent share of total GSE business in the first half of 2010 was up from a 19 percent share for all of last year.”

(The GSE report comes with a special CD of parrots swawking among the orchid blooms signaling the arrival of the monopolists in code.)

Login or register to post comments Re: the unwatched pot Submitted by Ross (389 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 01:21 #72418 (in reply to #72416)

I agree, Kaimu. It is by design. But ‘they’ have designed a Pento when hit in the ass, explodes. Unfortunately none of us knowns when that will occur. I thought it might have been in 08. In retrospect, 08 was just a side dish.

In the typical course of cycles it usually takes decades to unwind past maleficences but my fear is that we are so very close to the end of the rope that the end game can be more swift than most of us can react to in a timely mannor.

Being objective, I can easily forecast DOW 30,000 or more within the next few years. Fiat money needs to go somewhere. Nxt bubble could easily be stocks or Monets or baseball cards. ANYTHING but colored pictures of long dead presidents.

Login or register to post comments Re: how to short cotton? Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 03:04 #72420 (in reply to #72398)

JB, DBA is a mixed bag of soft and grain futures – cotton is not included in the top ten holdings representing 83% of DBA:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=DBA+Holdings

I used to get hints of how futures trading work from the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. I ceased reading him sometime ago as a paid subscription service that began led to much recycling of the free material.

Login or register to post comments Rare earth metals miner on the radar – ASX listed Lynas Corp. Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 03:24 #72421

…”Rare Element enjoys a better location in Wyoming, but hasn’t yet produced real revenue. So Canadian company Neo Material Technologies (PINK: NEMFF) and the Australian Lynas Corporation (PINK: LYSCF) might make better choices in the end…

…And Lynas owns the Mount Weld deposit in western Australia, the richest known deposit of rare earths in the world with a state-of-the-art rare earths processing plant.”

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticlepa…

Where was everyone when these stories came out just two months ago? Look at the share price – see attachment.

Wondering if a pullback brings new opportunities or this blows over with profit taking – depends on China I guess.

Kaimu – sure you don’t wanna take a quick peak at this company next time you are down under?

AttachmentSize LYC.AX 22.81 KB Login or register to post comments futures 3am – Asia consolidation continues Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 03:23 #72422

S&P+2.00 / +0.17%
Level1,177.70
Fair Value1,176.74
Difference0.96
Nasdaq+4.50 / +0.22%
Level2,084.50
Fair Value2,087.89
Difference-3.39
Dow+25.00 / +0.23%
Level11,108.00

Shenzhen putting in a new high. DJ Malaysia testing high. Most markets continue consolidation/bounce following a pullback.

Login or register to post comments futures 6am – Europe down as all currencies weaken against $ Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 06:07 #72423

S&P-0.80 / -0.07%
Level1,174.90
Fair Value1,176.74
Difference-1.84
Nasdaq+0.75 / +0.04%
Level2,080.75
Fair Value2,087.89
Difference-7.14
Dow-9.00 / -0.08%
Level11,074.00

can’t help but notice that LIBOR and thus the TED spread has based out and is beginning to rise. Let’s see where this goes.

Login or register to post comments Re: There are mosquitoes, there are vampires, Submitted by Grym (2669 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 07:29 #72424 (in reply to #72388)

Dave M,

Thanks for the comments. Isn’t it too bad we hear so little about the helpfulness of people during hard times? Bad news being gets more attention — and I guess I am one of the contributors.

I do know of many individual acts of kindness here too, but the media’s idea of good news is generally a cover-up of the causes of our generally poor governmental handling (or avoidance) of problems.

I am blessed/cursed with a vivid imagination. When I first began to see (1985) the jobs being shipped out of the country, I began trying to stop or at least slow it at local, state and national levels by writing our reps.

Now it is too late and will take far longer than I have to ever see anything close to what we once had. Yet, those in charge are the least affected and continue their old ways of dealing with things.

My wife and I have two fine sons, reasonably good health and our home is paid for. While I’m thankful for these things, it is my nature to want to see steady improvement, thus the frustration.

The many empty factories, companies which I did work for (which provided good jobs for thousands) and increasing number of homes for sale are daily signs that we are still in free-fall here.

Login or register to post comments New Bloomberg Bond Market Page Submitted by Les (3594 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 08:17 #72425

The old URL Bill told us to keep an eye on is kaput I think:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html/

I tracked down the new Bond Market webpage here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/bonds/

cheers

Login or register to post comments Re: gold today Submitted by tbar (169 comments) on Fri, 10/22/2010 – 08:37 #72427 (in reply to #72374)

“An ounce of gold has dropped 11% in ASD since June 7, so it wouldn’t be a good hedge for a strong currency.”

That’s a very selective time frame to try to prove your point. A mere 2 months prior to that and it is up 13% against the xad. Further still the xad was at 93.61 then and is up close to 5% since.

So net, gold in xad has beaten xad during xad rallies and correction when you look at “fair” timeframes.

If thats not enough go back to July 2008 and do the math, xad is 1 penny higher than it was then.

Gold:xad is nearly 50% higher.

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