Guest Post: The Silver Sleuth

Tyler Durden's picture Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/27/2010 19:14 -0500

Central BanksGuest PostMexicoPrecious Metals

Submitted by Jeff Clark of The Casey Report

The Silver Sleuth

We once had an ongoing series in BIG GOLD called, “1001 Reasons to Own Gold.” The idea was that there were so many valid reasons to own the metal that I wanted to track and report on them. If you’ve been invested in the precious metals arena, you know there have been a myriad of bullish indicators for silver this year as well.

Here’s a couple new reasons to own silver that a lot of mainstream investors probably aren’t aware of…

Due to increased demand from industry and investors, silver exports from China are expected to drop about 40% this year. And that’s actually an improvement; customs data show exports plunged almost 60% through the first eight months. China exported about 3,500 metric tons of silver in 2009, but has exported only 970 tons through August of this year.

What a lot of Westerners don’t know is that China ended export “rebates” two years ago to stem the shipment of natural resources leaving the country. As a result of the regulation, silver exports decreased in 2009 but are nothing like what they’re experiencing this year. In other words, the large drop in exports is a direct result of a huge increase in demand within China itself. According to one Chinese banker, the spike in demand is coming from all areas – jewelry, investment, and industrial. In his words, it’s led to a “physical market shortage in the Far East.”

How important is this? China is the world’s third largest producer of silver (after Peru and Mexico), so the amount of silver coming to the global marketplace this year will drop by more than 74 million ounces. This represents roughly 8.3% of total annual global supply from 2009. If worldwide demand continues at its current pace, where is the extra metal going to come from? This alone tells us the price of silver will move higher.

The next item I sleuthed out was that the U.S. Mint is expected to release a new five-ounce silver bullion coin this year, the first ever. The coin will be three inches in diameter and have a composition of .999 fine silver.

I’ve read the five-ounce bullion coins will be near-exact replicas of the America the Beautiful quarters. There will reportedly be five different designs, and the mint plans to produce 100,000 of each. I can’t wait to see them.

The coins will be classified as bullion, meaning they should be available to the same dealers already authorized by the mint. This will likely create excitement in the silver market, especially when you consider its affordability. At $23 silver, the five-ounce bullion coin will cost $115, plus premium. One ounce of gold runs $1,340 as I write, while five ounces will cost you $6,700 plus commission.

Perhaps most bullish is the fact that silver is vastly underpriced when compared to gold. Look at it this way: gold is currently priced 57% above its 1980 nominal high of $850; silver would have to more than double to reach its 1980 nominal high of $48.70. And that’s excluding any inflation-adjusted calculation. Yes, silver’s spike was partly a direct result of hoarding by the Hunt Brothers, but my question to the skeptics is this: what’s keeping us from seeing similar stockpiling today? What if there are several Hunt Brothers out there?

It’s true that central banks don’t buy and store physical silver, so one source of demand that’s common for gold isn’t present for silver. But let’s keep things in perspective: demand for all forms of silver is rising, and we see no reason the trend won’t continue. And with indicators like decreasing supply from China and increased attention from a new bullion coin, I say the big picture on the silver price is extremely bullish.

This silver sleuth says, buy some silver on the next dip. There’s lots of reasons you won’t regret it.

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by bobert
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 19:25
#681993

My bond portfolio, that I have reduced a great deal, is getting eatin alive these days.

Their is a “silver” ling out there for me somewhere!

Login or register to post comments by MiguelitoRaton
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 19:31
#682004

We’re the Hunt brothers nailed by the governent for trying to corner the silver market? So what’s to prevent other Hunt brothers?…Uh prosecution? But yes, I’m a big fan of silver bullion as an economic insurance policy.

Login or register to post comments by tmosley
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 19:44
#682039

The Hunt Brothers used margin, and the government changed the rules in the middle of the game on them, causing a margin call which shut them down and lost them a fortune.

Had they refrained from using leverage, and simply taken physical delivery, we would probably have a different monetary system now, and the Hunt’s would be richer than Bill Gates, Sam Walton, the Rockefellers, and the Rothchilds put together.

So now it falls to us.  Take delivery of silver, and become rich.  It’s that simple.

Login or register to post comments by rocker
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:49
#682169

The Hunt brothers used margin about the same way JPM got in trouble shorting silver.

When you short more than exist and use collusion of others to achieve your goals.

You belong in Jail. Just like Goldman Sachs does for their efforts in the CDO’s and SIVs.

Login or register to post comments by TheGoodDoctor
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:01
#682194

And that is the god damned irony of the whole JPM silver debacle right there.

The Hunt’s were criminals but JPM is a respected bank? Right!

Login or register to post comments by Bay of Pigs
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 22:10
#682311

Anyone see that ad tonight during the World Series by JPM? I’ve never seen a bigger piece of propaganda in my life. Something like,

“This way forward, into the future, working together”, type of busllshit.

I say let’s burn these fuckers to the ground on the illegal and immoral gold/silver manipulation is the way “forward”.

 

 

Login or register to post comments by Rahm
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 22:58
#682403

Not for long…

Login or register to post comments by Chappaquiddick
on Thu, 10/28/2010 – 02:56
#682664

Rocker – I’m trying to get to the bottom of some of the current investment themes surrounding silver.  Could you please tell me where you have derived the information that the silver market is shorted more than exists?

I’ve written to GATA on claims they’ve made regards silver abundance ratios, recycling and silver going extinct and got pointed towards Ted Butler.  I’m looking to find the data that backs up these statements. Can you help?

Login or register to post comments by slvrizgold
on Thu, 10/28/2010 – 00:35
#682554

Its a lot more than just an insurance policy.  It’s 100% pure unadulterated MONEY.   Undervalued “currency” if you will.

One point the author missed…   He wrote about central bank not being buyers of silver.  I think the more RELEVANT point is that central banksters hold no silver therefore they can never be a SELLER of silver!    Think about that for a minute.

Login or register to post comments by pmn
on Thu, 10/28/2010 – 00:46
#682570

Hey Miguel, It may come as a shock to you but not everybody on the planet lives in the USA

Login or register to post comments by Spalding_Smailes
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 19:37
#682012

Wells Fargo & Co., conceding that some foreclosure affidavits “did not strictly adhere to the required procedures,” said it will file supplemental statements to courts in about 55,000 proceedings.

The bank, which has proceeded with home seizures while rivals including Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. delayed theirs, said today in a statement that it found some lapses during a review of its processes. The bank will begin filings in 23 states immediately and aims to complete them by mid-November, subject to local laws, according to the statement.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-27/wells-fargo-finds-foreclosure-l…

Login or register to post comments by Real Estate Geek
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 22:39
#682372

I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for 55,000 indictments for perjury.

Login or register to post comments by Chartist
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 19:36
#682016

Ah, the old silver to gold ratio argument for higher silver prices…..You know, the ole Nat gas to oil ratio argument hasn’t worked out too good for Nat gas investors for quite awhile…

A friend of mine is one of the largest traveling buyers of old silver and gold jewelry in the country.  He tells me he’d feel a lot better about gold prices if they’d stop mining so much of it.

 

Login or register to post comments by unum mountaineer
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:08
#682088

hmmm…idk, i haven’t been seeing that. a bit of the opposite. haven’t been reacting the same for a month or so. check out harvey organ blogspot. come back then let me know what you think. i’ll look out for you in other posts too. not repitition..but rhyming..

Login or register to post comments by DosZap
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:22
#682121

Chartist,

Newsflash, there is a shortage of both Gold and Silver right now, matter of fact, wonder where SPROTT is going to get 20 Milllion+ ounces he needs NOW for his ETF?…………..

Login or register to post comments by Pegasus Muse
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:25
#682200

A friend of mine is one of the largest traveling buyers of old silver and gold jewelry in the country.  He tells me he’d feel a lot better about gold prices if they’d stop mining so much of it.

I’d feel a lot better about fiat paper if Ben would quit printing so much of it.  Fed money printing overwhelms gold production by orders of magnitude. 

Login or register to post comments by apberusdisvet
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:43
#682259

Nice try troll; gold production has declined considerably over the past decade.

Login or register to post comments by RobotTrader
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 19:36
#682021

So far, not much excitement yet.

You would have thought this would have taken off on the news.

Now only if silver could be used in catalytic converters.

Then it would take off like Palladium has….participating in the worldwide orgy of new car buying…

 

Login or register to post comments by tmosley
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 19:47
#682049

Wrong Chart, Robo.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

Though it is true that there is a surprising lack of activity.  Though when you think about it, it makes sense.  I would imagine that those who are paying close attention know that paper PM vehicles are probably worthless, and so they are buying physical at the retail level.  When the retailers run out of stock, and start making demands for delivery from the exchanges is when things will get interesting.  I’d say November 3rd is probably the key date.

Login or register to post comments by Bartanist
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:07
#682086

“when” … “if” … yup …. as I have said below, there is no apparent shortage for industrial applications. So, when and if may very well become “never”.

Login or register to post comments by tmosley
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:56
#682282

I didn’t use the word “if”, you’ll notice.

There is no “if” involved here.  And never say “never”.

Login or register to post comments by rocker
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:19
#682218

I own Palladium as well.  I really like Platinum and nickel too.  I do think silver is the best opportunity.

I will soon reveal my best pick.  Hint ?  O.K.  It works well with platinum.

Login or register to post comments by hamurobby
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:42
#682256

Nickel is a “cheap” play. Go to your bank, withdraw your savings in .05 nickels, you get an instant 20% gain in value with the metal vs frns.

http://www.coinflation.com/coins/1946-2007-Jefferson-Nickel-Value.html

How long at the interest rate you are recieving from your savings acount to make 20%?  Its a win win either way, hyperinflation or deflationary collapse, you have cash and nickel, and no separating pennies.

Login or register to post comments by DollarMenu
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 22:17
#682330

I keep seeing this thought posted but I can’t really see how it pays off.

If you disregard the laws against melting coinage, you probably won’t escape

the ‘coin fees’ exacted by your bank for coins in any sizable amount.

Tell me please,

how does this ‘buy nickels’ thing result in a 20% profit for you?

Are you able to work a $50K nut to make a $10K income?

Do you do it weekly?

Every other day?

How does this actually work?

 

Login or register to post comments by bobert
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 23:17
#682421

20% seems like a nice gain to me.

Whenever I receive those small random checks in the mail (rebates, premium refunds etc.)

I take it to my bank and request nickels.

The old female teller was a bit put out with me at first but has been accomodating.

I’ve been doing this for a few months now and have a pretty nice inventory of the stuff.

Building copper, silver, and other metals in a variety of ways also.

It’s fun!

Login or register to post comments by Stormdancer
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:41
#682255

Golly!  Wonder of wonders…..a lawsuit gets filed accusing paper silver of being a scam, and you’re surprised when the world doesn’t scramble to bid up paper?  LOL….typical.

 

Login or register to post comments by Turd Ferguson
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 19:50
#682055

The next dip (by overnight Sunday into Monday at the latest) will take us sub 23, maybe to 22.50

Buy this dip with both hands. Silver will soon move through 25 and on toward 27. On the chart, there is no resistance until 35 or so. A very, very attractive investment.

Login or register to post comments by Vernon Wormer
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:47
#682267

You’ve been right so far. I’m in.

Login or register to post comments by nmewn
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 19:55
#682064

“What if there are several Hunt Brothers out there?”

What if there are millions 😉 

Login or register to post comments by Cheesy Bastard
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:09
#682202

+1

Login or register to post comments by CrockettAlmanac.com
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 22:41
#682375

One can only imagine the stretch marks on Mamma Hunt.

Login or register to post comments by bobert
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 23:21
#682428

nm:

Your brevity is impressive.  You are in my opinion most often right on target.

Good post here also!

I agree! What if???

Login or register to post comments by benb
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:01
#682075

“….Yes, silver’s spike was partly a direct result of hoarding by the Hunt Brothers, but my question to the skeptics is this: what’s keeping us from seeing similar stockpiling today? What if there are several Hunt Brothers out there?”

We don’t need no stinking Hunt Brothers hoarding the silver. All we need is for the paper schmucks to wake up to realize the virtual silver is just that… nature will see to the rest.

Login or register to post comments by rocker
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:52
#682174

Do you mean like the hoarding of Copper by the CB’s.  Are you suggesting it’s only the CB’s who control all.

Login or register to post comments by Bartanist
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:04
#682078

Just curious where this “silver shortage” is. The company I work for takes weekly high volume deliveries of silver from multiple sources for industrial applications and not one of the sources has once mentioned the possibility of being short of silver.

Seems like another bunch of logic-gap assumptions that are not in fact true. They are just made to seem true by using incorrect logic and incorrect assumptions.

We buy silver inside China as well and there is no apparent shortage there either.

Login or register to post comments by tmosley
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:13
#682098

Industrial users have always gotten first priority.  Those who are investing in paper silver vehicles probably have no silver.  The market participants think they have the silver, so they are perfectly willing to sell their real silver for low prices.  Once the warehouse situation is made clear, the real shortage will materialize.  I’d suggest you and your company take possession of as much as you can while it is still easily available.

Login or register to post comments by benb
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:16
#682107
“Just curious where this “silver shortage” is…”

At this point there is no shortage only because of the amount of none-existent (un-backed) paper silver being accepted by investors. If all paper silver were required to be backed with physical, the market would be turned on its ear overnight. When confidence in paper drops you’ll see the shortages. (IMO)

 

Login or register to post comments by Bartanist
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:25
#682128

I look at the silver paper as a simple gambling chip, just like a stock certificate … and both are more than likely only electronic.

Virtually none of the people making this gambling bets wants to take possession of the silver under ANY circumstances. They are just gambling…. and sure if these gamblers started taking possession there would be a shortage. It has not happened yet. Why would they take possession in the future? Is the world ending and they did not get the memo?

Login or register to post comments by MeTarzanUjane
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:34
#682144

“Is the world ending and they did not get the memo?”

Far too few have your realistic vantage point and the bugs want to see some fireworks.

Login or register to post comments by Blindweb
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:30
#682241

Peak oil, impossibility of Western society paying off their debts, the crumbling of the U.S. empire…

Generally I don’t even waste my time responding when people are this far behind the curve. 

 

Login or register to post comments by tmosley
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:40
#682155

Exactly.  This is why there has never been a bank run in the history of the Earth.  People just want the paper, they don’t care if there is anything to back it up.

Incidently, I just wrote myself a check for $1,000,000,000,000,000,000.  Now I’m the world’s first QUINTILLIONAIRE!  Suck on that Bill Gates!

Login or register to post comments by Hook Line and S…
on Thu, 10/28/2010 – 01:07
#682594

Si Senor Mosley, these are the same people who settle for porn, and never end up getting the real cuchi.

Login or register to post comments by benb
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:58
#682188
“I look at the silver paper as a simple gambling chip…”

Yes sir. The knowledgeable guys trading paper metal are in “Jack be nimble” mode. Great if they make some dough on the deal. I just wouldn’t want to be around when the music stops or when we hear that hellacious screeching scratch in the record.

Login or register to post comments by DosZap
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:26
#682130

We buy silver inside China as well and there is no apparent shortage there either

 

You soon will have………..

Login or register to post comments by UncleFurker
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:57
#682184

“We buy silver inside China as well and there is no apparent shortage there either.”

Never any mention of a shortage in China – they’re the 3rd largest producer. They just want to keep all of it within their border.

Login or register to post comments by trav7777
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:53
#682280

There is no silver shortage.  Silver production has continued to grow.  Gold production peaked in 2001 and declined since, but has made a run at the production high as of the 2009 figures.  We’ll see going forward what comes of that.

But silver hasn’t shown a production decline yet.  PGMs are where people need to pay some attention.  Pd and Pt are both undervalued given the production metrics vs Au or Ag.

Login or register to post comments by tmosley
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 22:02
#682298

As much as we produce, we use a lot more.  We have run down the above ground stockpiles.  The only reason there is still so much silver being mined is because it is generally a byproduct of mining other things, whereas gold is generally mined mostly for the gold itself.  You’ll notice that there are very few “silver miners” out there.  That will change as silver increases in price such that those miners go from getting the majority of their returns from the silver rather than the base metals they mine with it.

Gold production will (slowly) ramp up once again once gold goes into the stratosphere.  

Login or register to post comments by monopoly
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:13
#682097

All talk about the violatility next week. But no matter what, up, down, sideways, nothing has changed. The idiot will print until the people march and demand change. Until then, just press the print button. Nothing new.

Login or register to post comments by unum mountaineer
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:19
#682112

Because of silver’s excellent electrical conductivity, it finds many applications in electronics from printed circuit boards to switches and TV screens.

Because silver ions prevent bacteria and algae buildup, silver is fast becoming part of water purification systems in hospitals, small community water systems, pools and spas. The major benefit is that silver replaces traditional germ-killing methods that employ harsh, sometimes dangerous chemicals such as chlorine and bromine.

In building water supply systems, silver ions can destroy Legionnaires’ Disease, which is caused by bacteria building up in pipes, connections and water tanks. (that’ll be key down the line..mark my words)

Because of health concerns, lead is being replaced by silver in solder.

Jet engines use silver-coated steel ball bearings to prevent failure at high speed and extreme temperatures.

Due to environmental and safety concerns, silver-oxide batteries are beginning to replace lithium-ion batteries in mobile phones and laptop computers. Silver-zinc batteries feature a water-based chemistry and contain no lithium or flammable liquids.

most sit and wait for the oh shit moment..just like american leadership (we get what we deserve), no one can see more than a month down the pipeline..everything has an ad hoc crisis lens view and unless it is staring you right in the face “who gives a fuck? right?” just sayin’ what if…like, what if..the banks are insolvent and the american tax payer…err slave has to bail them out again? food for thought…junk away

Login or register to post comments by King_of_simpletons
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:39
#682149

Lot of used silver is recycled and comes back into the market for reuse. So the notion of only newly mined silver for industrial uses is exaggerated.  Here is a report from 2000:  http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1196n/c1196n.pdf

Login or register to post comments by watchingdogma
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:29
#682235

I’m guessing you didn’t actually read that 10 year old report – now did you.  If it weren’t for simpletons like you – I wouldn’t have been able to aquire nearly as much silver as I have over the past decade.  And guess what- while you’re looking at a loss in your equities account – silver is a 4 bagger.  Here’s another news flash – for a buy and hold asset, as of right now – silver has been better than “the market” for the past 20 years.

Just keep drinking the kool-aid – I’ll keep losing my shirt buying the shiny stuff and wearing my tin-foil hat.

79% of scrap in 2000 – according to this report – was photographic waste.  What do you think that number is today?

Login or register to post comments by King_of_simpletons
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 23:10
#682417

I’m just a simpleton. You are obviously “according to you” some sort of genius. Hee haw !

Login or register to post comments by RobotTrader
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:25
#682126

I wonder if JPM will simply settle for a paltry fine and sell their commodity desk to somebody else.

Hard to believe that they will actually have to suffer.

 

Login or register to post comments by RoRoTrader
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:09
#682203

Get long RobotTrader.

Login or register to post comments by MeTarzanUjane
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:44
#682131

*edit

Jeebus. Has this blog turned into a fucking metal forum?

Please discuss.

Login or register to post comments by Bay of Pigs
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 22:16
#682327

It’s a metal thread douche….you want to discuss religion or politics?

I guess JPM and HSBC looking like a House of Cards isn’t a story to you?

Login or register to post comments by Mozzer
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 22:29
#682352

real money monkey boy. get a history book and think outside the propaganda machine.

Login or register to post comments by RockyRacoon
on Thu, 10/28/2010 – 00:02
#682508

If you don’t like it… move.

Login or register to post comments by 99er
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:36
#682143

Chart: Silver

Diamond Top?

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/silver_1015.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts

Login or register to post comments by Kina
on Thu, 10/28/2010 – 04:17
#682729

Just like with equities do these TAs mean anything anymore when they are produced almost entirely by the efforts of manipulation. The true market isn’t being represented because of it.

Login or register to post comments by Bárðarbunga
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 20:39
#682153

I think that’s what Zero Hedge has been missing all along. A fucking metal forum.

Login or register to post comments by rocker
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:10
#682205

If you really believe in the global economy in any way, you Must believe in the value of those things that make it work.

Login or register to post comments by Restcase
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:25
#682230

Am a silver monometallist; silver really has no sensible ratio to gold in this day. Each metal follows its own dynamic.

The two scary unknowns about silver for me are (1) the size of the market overhang in personally/family-owned junk silver and (2) the production of silver as a byproduct in the mining of other metals – this seems potentially unlimited, depending on the level of worldwide mining activity.

Gold is I think more universally convertible but silver more interesting, more useful, and more limited in supply.

You choose your poison….

Login or register to post comments by zen0
on Wed, 10/27/2010 – 21:36
#682245

Is there a shortage of spare change? It is not even silver, and the bastards won’t pony up when I plead for mercy.

I even got shit from one guy becuase I panned him once going into the liquor store and again going out.

He flung a dollar into my forehead and made it bleed.

 

At least he has a heart.

I am zen0 and I approve of 64% of this message.

(shortage is as shortage does)

Login or register to post comments by Xibalba
on Thu, 10/28/2010 – 00:46
#682571

take delivery.  buy a welders blanket and a safe.  arm yourself.

 

easy as 1-2-3

Login or register to post comments by Hook Line and S…
on Thu, 10/28/2010 – 00:58
#682583

If the dollar’s demise deleteriously affects the global economy, perhaps the ‘commodity’ (especially the industrial sector) portion of silver pricing will be given a good whoopin. Just thinking…

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