32% of Homeowners Expect Home Prices to Drop Next Year, Highest Short-Term Pessimism Ever; Recognition Phase Underway

Rasmussen Reports recently released an interesting survey that shows Homeowners Are More Pessimistic Than Ever About the Short-Term Housing Market
A new Rasmussen Reports survey finds that 32% expect the value of their home to decrease over the next year, the highest finding since Rasmussen Reports began asking the question regularly in December 2008.

Just 21% believe the value of their home will go up over the next year.

Looking longer term, people are feeling a bit better. Fifty-two percent (52%) of homeowners say the value of their home will increase over the next five years, the highest level of optimism measured since May.

For the second month in a row, only 55% of homeowners say their home is worth more than their mortgage. A third (33%), however, report that the mortgage is bigger than the home value.

Over half of Americans know someone who has lost their home because they could not pay their mortgage, but just 20% believe that when banks foreclose on a home, it’s generally due to unfair lending practices. Recognition Phase

Some will look at the survey results and see a contrarian indicator. I rather doubt it. I do not think we bottom until homeowners sour on long-term optimism.

Given current conditions, housing inventory, shadow inventory, another jobless “recovery”, and changing social attitudes from younger generations, home prices will likely stay depressed for a while.

So instead of the survey being a contrarian indicator, I view these attitudes as part of the recognition phase. Consumers are starting to realize the economic headwinds and what that will do to housing prices in the short-term, even if they have not yet figured out the long-term demographic mess.

Time and Price is the Only Legitimate Cure

The most encouraging sign in the report is that “a majority of Americans continue to oppose any government intervention in the housing market.”

The only legitimate cure for what ails housing is price and time. Prices need to fall to the point there is genuine demand. When that happens, the bottom will be in, although appreciation off that bottom will be quite slow.

In the meantime, the Fed’s misguided attempt to prop up prices, in conjunction with all the interference by Congress, just stretches out the bottoming timeline.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Bookmark and Share
Posted by Michael Shedlock at 11:34 AM…. Print…. Email

To sign up for a free copy of our Monthly Client Newsletter, please register your email address at the bottom of the Sitka Pacific Commentary Page.

Buy Gold and Silver Online at GoldMoney
The Best Way to Buy Gold and Silver

Disclaimer:The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Comment Guidelines: Comments should be succinct, constructive and relevant to the story. We encourage engaging, diverse and meaningful commentary. Comments that include personal attacks, racial, religious, or ethnic slurs are not permitted. We continuously review and remove any inappropriate comments.

Comments(0)

Newer PostOlder PostHomeSubscribe to:.About Mike Shedlock Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Continue reading…    
 Mish Audio VideoMish with Marc Faber 2010-03-12
“Inflation or Deflation?” Debate: Mish vs. Dr. Doom

On the Edge with Max Keiser 2010-02-12
Spotlight on China, Japan, Jobs, Pensions, Part 1

Spotlight on China, Japan, Jobs, Pensions, Part 2

Tech Ticker 2009-12-09
“Bank Lending, Jobs, The Great Retrace

King World News October 30 2009
Mish and Eric King discuss Gold, the Stock Market, the US Dollar, Sideline Cash, China, and US real estate

May 2009: My Speech at Google – on Blogging and the Economy
Thoughts on Blogging and the Economy – Speech at Google

Podcasts Every ThursdayHoweStreet

May 18, 2009Jay Taylor and Mish discuss deflation and other issues on Voice America

April 27, 2009
The Lew Rockwell Show – “It’s Fallen and It Can’t Get Up”

April 26, 2009
TDI Podcast 106: ZeroHedge and Mish-O-Nomics

January 25, 2009TDI Podcast 92: An Unavoidable Depression? (Dent and Shedlock)

January 7, 2009Commodity Watch Radio – 2009 : Mish and Mike Hampton Give Their Views

November 12, 2008
The Lew Rockwell Show

October 23, 2008
TDI Episode 80: Predicting another 40% DOWN

October 17, 2008
Commodity Watch Radio – A look at the markets Michael Hampton, Mish

August 24,2008
Commodity Watch Radio – Inflation or Deflation? Part 1 James Turk, Michael Hampton, Mish

 John Dennis Beat Pelosi Mish Endorsement of John Dennis  Lawson for Congress Mish Endorsement of B.J. Lawson  Doug Cloud For Congress Mish Endorsement of Doug Cloud  
 
 
Calculated RiskLoading…naked capitalismLoading…Steve Keen’s DebtwatchLoading…oftwomindsLoading…Acting Man Austrian Economics DiscussionLoading…Copyright 2009 Mike Shedlock. All Rights Reserved.View My StatsHomeAboutContactSitka Pacific.js-kit-comments { background-color: #ffffff; } white-space: nowrap; color: #ff0000; margin: 0px 0px 0px 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 0px; }.js-singleComment { font-size: 9pt; color: #000000; line-height: 1.0em; margin: 0px 0px 0px 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 0px; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica; border: solid 1px #c0c0c0; text-align: left; }

View the Original article

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s