Bill Cara’s Blog for Oct 12, 2010

October 12, 2010 by CTA Trading Desk Bookmark and Share

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[9:35am ET] Good morning! Patrick here.

Overseas markets sold off moderately on news the Chinese central bank raised reserve requirements on the largest banks, attempting to prevent their economy from overheating. European bourses sold off (FTSE -.90%, CAC-1.37%, DAX-0.57%) in sympathy with losses sustained on many of the far eastern exchanges, with a US Dollar rally (DXY +0.19%) putting pressure on precious metals (SLV-0.80%; GLD -0.41%).

Bears must be feeling frustrated this morning as equity futures are well off overnight lows. As the rally has progressed over the past six weeks, intraday corrections have been few and far between with buyers getting more aggressive on any minor pullbacks.

When buyers begin entering the market before the New York open, it means they have grown increasingly confident their view is correct and are acting accordingly. This behavior coupled with yesterday’s action in the fear gauge (VIX) means investors are beginning to throw caution to the wind. Portfolio insurance is gradually becoming cheaper to purchase, but with many managers chasing performance paying anything for downside protection means cutting a few percentage points off returns.

If investors are only concerned with the upside, it is time for traders to closely monitor downside exposure. As long as the S&P holds the January high of 1150, the short-term trend remains higher; more important lower levels of support are 1130 and 1115.

The market is very close to the post Flash Crash high, closing 6 points below that level last evening and if buyers can push the index through 1172 (good earnings from Intel tonight?) the next area of resistance remains the April high of 1220.

Earnings season is now in full swing, mid-term elections are around the corner, and the Fed decision on QE II is due in the next month.

Volatility will be on the rise – adjust trading plans accordingly.

Good luck to us all today.

CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report

This report will appear after the close of US markets.

Login or register to post comments Bookmark and Share Comments Cara 100 Update Submitted by Bull Hunter (1461 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 09:43 #71313

(continued from yesterday’s blog)

AAPL – target, estimates boosted at Barclays. AAPL shares now seen reaching $385, up from $340. Apple remains best growth play in the IT Hardware segment. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates increased to $14.56 and $17.80, respectively. Maintain Overweight rating.

SBUX – estimates raised at Credit Suisse. SBUX 2011 and 2012 EPS estimates increased to $1.45 and $1.69, respectively. Margins and EPS growth ahead. Maintain Outperform rating and $34 price target.

Login or register to post comments To QE2 or To Not QE2 Submitted by jet8400 (72 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 09:53 #71314

Finally a day has come were we are going to hear straight from Bernanke himself as to the plans for the near future. Tomorrow at 2pm is when the next round of POMO days is to be announced and could even paint a different picture than what we see from their mumbo jumbo minutes today.

You probably know I forsee a pause in QE, I was ranting about it quite a bit last week. Only because I think it makes most sense for the nation at this point but could turn ugly in the very near term.

Whatever Ben decides I’ll be behind him and I think he is a great patriot to undertake this enormous task. I would not want to be in his shoes. Inflation is not a life safer, IMHO it’s just another way to die. The cost of commodities will eventually catch up to the profits of the companies we are trying to save. Jack Black had a great post yesterday as to the amount of investor hedging right now and last week insider trading was another lopsided selling spree. Best of luck to you all ladies and gentlemen. Together we stand a chance.

Login or register to post comments dip-buying and SPX Submitted by davefairtex (2315 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 11:39 #71315

I have to agree with Patrick here – this morning when the buck didn’t continue its gains from asia and backed off 0.20, it set off an 8 point rally in SPX starting in the premarket timeframe. Looks like traders are eager to buy the “trend continuation” move at this point, dollar rebound notwithstanding.

Login or register to post comments since tarp and the bailouts Submitted by NYUGrad (2887 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 11:40 #71316

What has changed fundamentally on social equity, fair markets, and price discovery?

Login or register to post comments …. Submitted by baz22 (1415 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 11:50 #71317

starting back in imgn… will see if the low $ 7’s holds.

Login or register to post comments trying to get a handle Submitted by baz22 (1415 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 12:01 #71318

on ‘ MY ‘.. that first day P/E was higher than a Georgia pine… have stayed away for now.. hard to get info, although being ‘ non-State owned ‘ in China could be a toss-up.. good backlog into 2011, and have top-notch tech.. down in the $ 8’s would be just peachy !

Login or register to post comments New country ETF for Philippines Submitted by Bill Cara (1812 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 12:13 #71319

http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/E…

Very small but could be interesting.

Login or register to post comments sold my SLW puts Submitted by jack black (842 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 12:13 #71320

as soon as dollar started it’s slide down today. I still have minor positions in UUP calls and some positions in DZZ and BGZ under a tight stop. People buy on dips like crazy and I have no idea how long the dollar rebound will last.

Login or register to post comments Re: New country ETF for Philippines Submitted by jack black (842 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 12:14 #71321 (in reply to #71319)

I’m waiting for pakistan ETF, should be out soon.

Login or register to post comments Re: New country ETF for Philippines Submitted by Ross (370 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 12:22 #71322 (in reply to #71321)

When ‘they’ come out with an ETF for Xanadu, I’ll go all in…

Login or register to post comments Re: …. Submitted by baz22 (1415 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 12:29 #71323 (in reply to #71317)

don’t like set-up… back out.. scanning info, some data points excluded… will wait for sell-side reviews….

Login or register to post comments Fed official: Stop asset buying, raise interest rates Submitted by Bull Hunter (1461 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 13:03 #71324

http://tinyurl.com/2ex54vh

——

A lone voice of reason in a choir of hydrocephalics.

Login or register to post comments Re: since tarp and the bailouts Submitted by loannetter (815 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 13:07 #71325 (in reply to #71316)

NYUgrad,

Since TARP and the Bailout, those in power (think friends of angelo and angelo hisself) have been taking liberties with our laws and rights at a blinding pace.

Dylan Ratigan’s take on the seizure of property:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/why-foreclosu…

Login or register to post comments shrinking dollar chart Submitted by davefairtex (2315 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 13:23 #71327

http://dshort.com/articles/Kimble/101012-shrinking…

For those that like to trade against the vast majority (hello 2nd?), this chart’s annotations indicate that as of yesterday only 5% of investors are currently bullish on the dollar. That, along with the possible imminent MACD crossover in UUP suggests that perhaps we have a near term bottom in the buck.

MACD has been a good indicator of trend change for UUP.

FD: I’ve written UUP puts.

Login or register to post comments 52-week low on VXX 14.73 Submitted by goldbug58 (133 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 13:37 #71328

No position. Down from 16.54 during the 12PM hour on 7 Oct; FAZ seems to be holding somehow in a range about it’s 20-period exponential, in which I am in a very small position.

Login or register to post comments Re: sold my SLW puts Submitted by jack black (842 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 13:44 #71329 (in reply to #71320)

Since the dollar is going up again, I reloaded my SLW puts and added some SLV puts. Very tight stops, so likely it will not go thought, but in case it goes, who knows?

Login or register to post comments Re: 52-week low on VXX 14.73 Submitted by jack black (842 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 13:46 #71330 (in reply to #71328)

I mentioned that before and I will mention again. Trading long VXX sounds like fighting against odds in casino. The correlation between VXX and VIX is awful. I will look into shorting it at some points.

Login or register to post comments … Submitted by baz22 (1415 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 13:54 #71332

started in arql.

Login or register to post comments FOMC minutes Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1489 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 14:05 #71333

*(US) MINUTES OF 9/21 FOMC MEETING: ADDITIONAL EASING MAY BE NECESSARY IF OUTLOOK WORSENS; IS APPROPRIATE IF GROWTH IS TOO SLOW
– Discussed steps to affect inflation expectations, including providing detail on inflation rates that are more in line with mandate, there is a small chance of deflation
– Members were not content with measures towards price stability and employment levels
– Mentioned how an increase in inflation expectations could help bring down short term interest rates and thereby stimulate the economy
– Felt real personal consumption expenditures rose modestly in July, similar to the average increase over the preceding two months. Data for retail sales and the sales of light motor vehicles pointed to a moderate gain in real consumer spending in August.
– Commercial real estate markets continued to face difficult financial conditions, although some further signs emerged that this sector might be stabilizing. The prices of commercial properties appeared to have edged up in the first half of the year, and the volume of commercial real estate sales rose again in August
– Bank credit expanded in August, reflecting significant purchases of Treasury securities and agency MBS by large banks. Bank loans continued to contract, but the pace of contraction slowed noticeably from earlier in the year.
– A few participants noted that economic recoveries were often uneven and were typically slow following downturns triggered by financial crises. A number of participants observed that the sluggish pace of growth and continued high levels of slack left the economy exposed to potential negative shocks. Nevertheless, participants judged the economic recovery to be continuing and generally expected growth to pick up gradually next year.
– Improving household financial conditions were contributing to better consumer loan performance, and credit problems more broadly appeared to have mostly peaked, although banks continued to report elevated losses on commercial real estate loans, especially construction and land development loans. Credit remained readily available for larger corporations with access to financial markets, and there were some signs that credit conditions had begun to improve for smaller firms.
– Members wanted to consider further the most effective framework for calibrating and communicating any additional steps to provide such stimulus. Several members noted that unless the pace of economic recovery strengthened or underlying inflation moved back toward a level consistent with the Committee’s mandate, they would consider it appropriate to take action soon.

Login or register to post comments Latest from Rosenberg … It’s a Mad World Submitted by Dave M (123 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 14:13 #71334

“Page 14 of the weekend Financial Times ran with this headline: Weak Jobs Data Help Propel Dow Above 11,000 points.

Think of how crazy that is. Jobs create income. Income creates spending. U.S. consumer spending drives 70% of U.S. GDP and 17% global GDP. GDP must equal GDI (Gross Domestic Income) of which 11% is comprised of corporate profits. And, equity investors supposedly are buying a profit stream?

This was not, by the way, the only article to cite the awful employment report as the primary reason for the stock market advance on Friday. I have to admit that this is totally surreal. At the same time, a mea culpa of sorts is necessary because Dave Tepper was actually bang on the money with his assertion on CNBC that soft data was actually a good thing because it would mean a more aggressive attempt by the Fed to prime the pump in the looming QE2 assault on deflation risks.

I still have difficulty with that logic, but no doubt there are enough investors who are buying into it. Someone was investing in the market last week in the face of not only a sick employment report but a very soft ISM release as well, which pretty well told everyone that the plug is being pulled on the inventory cycle, which was responsible for about two-thirds of the rebound in real GDP off the mid-2009 bottom.

And, page B1 of the Saturday New York Times ran with this: Faith in Fed Pushes Dow Past 11,000.

Page 15 of the weekend FT had this title in big bold letters too — Equities Fired Up for Fed Easing and on the front page, you can see this — Jobs Data Point to Fresh Stimulus.

This is a market completely based on hope. Throw fundamental investment principles out the window. It’s now all about how the Fed can manage to inflate asset prices now that fiscal policy has tested its limits with the voting public. But where does this renewed faith in the Fed come from? Is this not the same Fed that took the funds rate from 5.5% to near- zero? The same Fed that tripled the size of its balance sheet in QE1? The same Fed that thought the housing and mortgage crisis would stay “contained” back in 2007? The same Fed that confused a credit contraction with a liquidity squeeze? The same Fed that believed, in the summer of 2007 when the crisis first broke that we would see 2.5-3.0% real GDP growth in 2008? The same Fed that was contemplating its exit strategy just a short six-months ago and believed it could start to shrink its balance sheet last spring? The same Fed that investors have so much faith in, and is the same Fed that passively tightened poli! cy with a 25 basis point hike in the discount rate to 0.75% back on February 19th. The same Fed that just trimmed its forecast three times in the past four months, and is this not the same Fed that investors now have “faith” in? The question is, the “faith” to do what?”

Login or register to post comments Re: FOMC minutes Submitted by NYUGrad (2887 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 14:18 #71335 (in reply to #71333)

not fighting the trend. at this pace we’ll see 12k soon.

Login or register to post comments Re: FOMC minutes Submitted by Dave M (123 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 14:24 #71336 (in reply to #71335)

I don’t know – the rally lasted 15 minutes. I am going to side with Rosenberg and stay on the sidelines – this is a rally based on hope.

Login or register to post comments Re: FOMC minutes Submitted by NYUGrad (2887 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 14:27 #71337 (in reply to #71336)

I agree. My strategy now is wait.

monthly charts for indices tell me “there might be some more upside but turn is likely.”

weekly charts are telling me “it can go either way”

daily charts are telling me “consolidating to go higher”

intraday charts are telling me “we want QE2”

Login or register to post comments Re: FOMC minutes Submitted by Dave M (123 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 14:33 #71338 (in reply to #71337)

More from Rosenberg:

“The Fed seems to have boxed itself in; however, at this point, it could be argued that a trillion of more Fed buying is priced in; survey evidence suggests over $500 billion in any event. So anything short of that could spark some damage to the overtly positive sentiment in the market right now — sentiment that seems purely predicated on the Fed aggressively pulling long-term rates even lower.

From our vantage point, what, at the margin, are lower yields going to do considering that the 5-year note is already microscopic at 1.1% and the 10-year at 2.8%. At the margin, it hardly seems likely that another 25 or 50 basis points are going to accomplish very much. It can hardly be argued that Fed liquidity and interest rate levels are an impediment to anything. The dilemma is that they are not cure-alls for all the structural (balance sheet) impediments to a sustained economic revival.”

Login or register to post comments Re: FOMC minutes Submitted by davefairtex (2315 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 14:41 #71339 (in reply to #71338)

To my mind, this isn’t about stimulating the economy, its about keeping the debt bubble growing, the equity market moving up, and the dollar low. Throwing new money into the market does all of that, and more. (The “more” is an increase in commodity prices across the board)

One important point. Last time the printing effect was a surprise to the equity market. This time, it’s already being discounted. I have said it before, that the market may well sell off when QE 2 is announced, surprising everyone. Maybe even for gold and the buck too.

These no-brainer trades – will everyone really make money that easily?

Login or register to post comments The Pause that Refreshes Submitted by teamonfuego (2201 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 14:44 #71340

On a volatile day like today I’m getting the sense that this thing is pausing before going higher and closing above the post Flash Crash high…either way it should probably be a big move at the end of the day.

Login or register to post comments Re: The Pause that Refreshes Submitted by davefairtex (2315 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 14:45 #71341 (in reply to #71340)

TOF, if the buck falls through its 77 support overnight in asia, I think that’s exactly what will happen. A big gap-up-and-stall tomorrow. My opinion it all depends on how the dollar reacts tomorrow. I think we’re largely done for today.

Login or register to post comments Re: The Pause that Refreshes/ Earnings will drive the indexes Submitted by 2nd_ave (4732 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 14:49 #71342 (in reply to #71340)

It’s no longer QE2- I really believe that was in fact pretty much priced in. Now it’s earnings. I think we power higher on Q4 guidance from INTC/LLTC/JPM/GOOG/INFY/GE.

Login or register to post comments USD continues its march into the abyss Submitted by NYUGrad (2887 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 14:49 #71343

http://bit.ly/d57Ddy

Login or register to post comments Re: Latest from Rosenberg … It’s a Mad World Submitted by teamonfuego (2201 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 14:50 #71344 (in reply to #71334)

Speaking of “faith” it sounds like this guy is placing a lot of “faith” that what the headlines are saying are actually true and 100% reflect the meanings behind moves in the markets.

Login or register to post comments Re: The Pause that Refreshes/ Earnings will drive the indexes Submitted by teamonfuego (2201 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 14:55 #71345 (in reply to #71342)

I agree 2nd…if we run higher into the close and we get strong reports from INTC and JPM then I suspect the bears will be hurt once again. I highly doubt they will drop the ball given how well corp earnings have been over the past several quarters. The reaction to the news tomorrow will be interesting to watch.

FD: I’ve been bullish for a while so I’m clearly biased.

Login or register to post comments 11400/1225 might even attract retail buyers Submitted by 2nd_ave (4732 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:02 #71346 (in reply to #71345)

Those levels would clearly indicate the trend has not changed, and would probably compel sidelined investors back into the market. Throw in a few comments on CNBC about the ‘Next Roaring Twenties,’ and we’re good until 12500/1300.

Login or register to post comments Re: The Pause that Refreshes/ Earnings will drive the indexes Submitted by teamonfuego (2201 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:06 #71347 (in reply to #71345)

by the way, i’d like to go on record as saying that INTC means less and less nowadays. the ipad and iphone are crushing them as far as future growth goes.

Login or register to post comments Re: Latest from Rosenberg … It’s a Mad World Submitted by Dave M (123 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:10 #71348 (in reply to #71344)

I acknowledge Rosenberg is noted as being a perma-bear, but he is Chief Economist & Strategist for Gluskin Sheff, an independent Canadian investment firm that manages portfolios of five million dollars or more for high net worth investors. He was ranked 4th out of 104 economists in the 2009 Thomson-Extel survey of global portfolio managers.

I like his ability to put things into perspective. For example, all the talk about September being the best stock market performance since 1939 is a complete money illusion, as the rally occurred on the back of devalued U.S. dollars. In euro terms, the S&P 500 was up 1½% last month, and still down 10% from where it was last spring.

Login or register to post comments Re: The Pause that Refreshes/ Earnings will drive the indexes Submitted by 2nd_ave (4732 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:10 #71349 (in reply to #71347)

That’s why INTC and AAPL are priced the way they are. And why INTC needs new sources of growth/revenue.

Login or register to post comments Re: The Pause that Refreshes/ Earnings will drive the indexes Submitted by teamonfuego (2201 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:15 #71350 (in reply to #71349)

yeah i have no desire to invest in INTC anymore. AAPL is just too big for them. my friend that works in the industry said that Apple is going to replace all of their Intel chips within two years and will be ramping up their facilities for their own A4 processors.

Whoever the big players are in the materials etc for the A4 processors are going to do well.

Login or register to post comments Volatility anyone? Submitted by speculation101 (5 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:20 #71351

There is no volatility. Been waiting for an entry point into VXX but the VIX keeps going down. Is this the result of high frequency trading, black boxes, algorithms and quants? As soon as they make a 1 cent gain they sell so the prices never go anywhere.

Login or register to post comments Re: Latest from Rosenberg … It’s a Mad World Submitted by davefairtex (2315 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:21 #71352 (in reply to #71348)

Thanks for the Rosenberg comments DaveM. I agree with the observation that the September rally was completely a shrinking dollar phenomenon. Its a fundamental move all right – fundamentally currency driven. The money made still spends however, it just isn’t worth quite as much when you travel.

Login or register to post comments Re: The Pause that Refreshes/ Earnings will drive the indexes Submitted by 2nd_ave (4732 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:23 #71353 (in reply to #71350)

Neither INTC nor AAPL are investments. They’re trades, right?

Login or register to post comments Re: FOMC minutes Submitted by Les (3499 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:32 #71354 (in reply to #71339)

I have to wonder if QE2 is about asset inflation. Ben the Chopper must understand the negative implications of mortgage title fraud and increasing regulation keeping business investment sidelined.

Punishing China for its role in the present status quo seems just as likely as attempting asset inflation. Maybe its beyond asset inflation now and about playing its hand in a restructured global economic and monetary policy. Out with the old economy, in with the new. Gotta punish the people in the process, so be it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambrose…

Reading a deliciously wicked book on Stalin written by Edvard Radzinsky (great suggestion made by Vad). Annotated in one of the Georgian’s books written by Lenin or Trotsky is the observation that Communism is the same as terrorism. It makes me wonder what liberal-democratic elites make of democracies.

A man prepared to wage war against his own population for an ideology, change his opinion on a dime for his party or his own maneuvering and always several steps ahead of his opponents.

I can’t believe that Ben et al. are only thinking asset inflation.

Login or register to post comments Re: Latest from Rosenberg … It’s a Mad World Submitted by teamonfuego (2201 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:36 #71355 (in reply to #71352)

I still don’t understand why people place so much emphasis on correlations that occur over the span of a few months or even a few years. I read so many people posting on some of these blogs that well X is at the top of its range so therefore when it goes back down then Y will begin moving up. Well, why not point out that up until a few years ago that correlation didn’t even exist and that Y moved up and down in lock step with X? Or that maybe X won’t go back down because maybe it isn’t in the same range anymore?

A lot of people point out that the bankers failed to incorporate falling home prices into their models when it came to subprime lending. Well, in some ways isn’t this the same thing that people are doing today when they are making the above assumptions? I mean, I’ve read articles/posts by some people that completely rely upon these assumptions as to why they’re bullish/bearish.

Login or register to post comments More Fed easing likely won’t help economy: Hoenig Submitted by Dave M (123 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:38 #71356

Kansas City Federal Reserve President Thomas Hoenig fleshed out his stance against further easing on Tuesday, saying it would do little to aid recovery and could spark inflation.

http://tinyurl.com/37g4cvx

Login or register to post comments Re: sold my SLW puts Submitted by jack black (842 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:40 #71357 (in reply to #71329)

I got stopped out from most of my long UUP and short PM positions. The positions were fortunately small and with tight stops. It was a logical thing to do given the oversold dollar. I need to pause now and reevaluate. I guess 2nd could be right with his bullish intuition after all?

Login or register to post comments Re: The Pause that Refreshes/ Earnings will drive the indexes Submitted by Learner2 (45 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:45 #71358 (in reply to #71353)

They are ramping up INTC into the close. I suspect their earnings will be on expectations but I am inclined to believe their guidance for Q4 will be disappointing.

QE2 may begin in Nov but higher gasoline prices are biting now. For those without increased salaries, that has to come out of other spending.

Having looked at Senior Living places lateley, my awareness of the retired set is a lot higher. They announced that there will be no Social Security increases in 2011, as the CPI is flat. They were doing a bit on the national news and they talked about how drug prices are up 8.3% on average. They asked their “advisor” how to deal with this. Her comments were to increase the use of generics. What do you do when you take 9 drugs daily and 6 are generic? The Seniors then complained of lowered interest rates. The “advisor” told them they should consider taking in a boarded for one of their bedrooms, as there are a lot of new graduates looking to cut costs. This was the first time I have ever heard of this advise. This is what is happening on the front lines.

When I asked the Senior Living Salesperson about whether another person could come and stay in the apartment with me for a while she asked how long. She went on to say they had a real problem with Seniors coming to the home and their adult kids weren’t leaving after months of stay.

Login or register to post comments Re: Volatility anyone? Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1489 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:49 #71359 (in reply to #71351)

Take a look at WYNN’s chart today (or yesterday for that matter) and say again here is no volatility. There are quite a few examples of such, but you will miss them all if the VXX is the only thing you are looking at.

PS. How come WYNN moved 10 dollars in two days if those pesky “high frequency trading, black boxes, algorithms and quants sell as soon as they make a 1 cent gain so the prices never go anywhere…” GS 4 dollars and counting today only. BIDU 2.5 (and this is after the split which diminished its volatility greatly).

Login or register to post comments Re: Latest from Rosenberg … It’s a Mad World Submitted by Dave M (123 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:51 #71360 (in reply to #71352)

One last one and then I’ll stop.

“The Fed has indeed been successful in generating asset bubbles in the recent past, such as the tech bubble in the late 1990s and the housing bubble in the last cycle. But we know from experience that bubbles never end well, and yet here we are being suckered into another one and everyone seems to think they will know how to time this liquidity-infused rally and get out at the peak.”

Login or register to post comments This Excursion May Be Ending Submitted by Kyle (22 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 15:59 #71361

Just For What It’s Worth…

2010-10-12_SPX_(796-1085-1174-1263-1552)

Login or register to post comments Re: sold my SLW puts Submitted by davefairtex (2315 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 16:02 #71362 (in reply to #71357)

Could 2nd be right with his bullish intuition after all? Of course he could! One might argue, the “bullish intuition” is really just a call for the trend to continue – a tried and true trading methodology. Solid and respectable.

However, he could be wrong also. That pretty much covers the two possibilities. 🙂

Right now, with the buck at a potential turning point, the possibility of some serious volatility goes up, in my opinion. If the buck falls below its previous low at 77.05 after market hours, things will take off. If the buck rises overnight in asia, the equity market will probably tank – regardless of INTC’s earnings.

Login or register to post comments INTC earnings report Submitted by davefairtex (2315 comments) on Tue, 10/12/2010 – 16:27 #71363

SANTA CLARA, Calif., Oct. 12, 2010 – Intel Corporation today reported that third-quarter revenue exceeded $11 billion for the first time, up 18 percent year-over-year to $11.1 billion. The company reported operating income of $4.1 billion, net income of $3.0 billion and EPS of 52 cents.

http://newsroom.intel.com/community/intel_newsroom…

/ES futures are unchanged on the news. INTC has bounced around AH, is now up currently +0.18 from its closing price of 19.77.

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