Today’s Economic Data Highlights

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homeDARPAcontributorsnewsforumszh-tshirtstoredonaterssmanifesto Shadow Over Asia + Updated China/Japan presentation Posted by: Vitaliy Katsenelson Post date: 10/14/2010 – 09:26 Interview with Vitaliy Katsenelson on the challenges facing China and Japan and the implications to the rest of the world. Contemplations on Oil Posted by: madhedgefundtrader Post date: 10/14/2010 – 08:06 After a tumultuous 2009, oil has been one of the least volatile assets of 2010. It now appears that this crucial commodity is stretching its muscles, limbering up, and getting ready for a serious move. The net effect of the BP oil spill will be a cut of one million barrels a day of Gulf production, about 5% of US consumption. A serious run on the dollar is adding fuel to the fire. (USO), (XOM), (CVX), (OXY), (RSX) When Pigs Can Fly, the Devil Shivers in Hell, and 30% Gains in Western Stock Markets Will Mean Practically Nothing Posted by: smartknowledgeu Post date: 10/14/2010 – 05:04 Since March 6, 2009, the S&P 500 has seemingly been on a remarkable run, gaining 76.68% when priced in our favorite of monopoly currencies, the US dollar. However, when priced in gold, despite the daily rigging games of the government/banker cartel for the past two years, it has only managed to rise 21.64% over the same time span. When priced in silver, the S&P 500 has astonishingly lost 1.8% during the same investment period. To these enormous anomalies, we ask the question,”Will the real currency please stand up?” Navigation PollsDonate To Zero HedgeRecent posts Shopping cart View your shopping cart. User login Username: * Password: * Create new accountRequest new password Zero Hedge Reads Angry BearBearish NewsBoom Bust BlogChina Financial MarketsChris Martenson’s BlogContrary InvestorCoyote BlogCredit WritedownsDaily CapitalistDaneric’s Elliott WavesDealBookDealbreakerDr. Housing BubbleFalkenblogFibozachiFund My Mutal FundGains Pains & CapitalGlobal Economic AnalysisGonzalo LiraImplode-ExplodeInfectious GreedInvesting ContrarianJesse’s Café Américain Market FollyMax KeiserMinyanvilleMises InstituteNaked CapitalismOf Two MindsPension PulseShanky’s TechBlogThe Daily CruxThe Mad Hedge Fund TraderThe Market TickerThe Technical TakeThe Underground InvestorWall St. Cheat SheetWashington’s BlogWealth.netWhen Genius Prevailed Home Today’s Economic Data Highlights Tyler Durden's picture Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/14/2010 06:49 -0500

Continuing ClaimsFederal ReserveGoldman SachsGross Domestic ProductInitial Jobless ClaimsMonetary PolicyTrade BalanceUnemploymentUnemployment ClaimsUnemployment Insurance

The heavy flow of data begins with the trade balance and producer prices in addition to unemployment claims.  Later in the day, we hear again from the Fed….
 
8:30: The US trade balance for Aug…will it stall after last month’s sharp narrowing?  The answer to this question is important for gauging how much US real GDP grew in the third quarter.  One argument for a much larger increase than the 1.5% annualized gain we are estimating is that the trade balance will reverse a large part of the huge 3.5-point second-quarter drag.  For this to happen, this report should show another significant narrowing—e.g., to $40bn or less.  In fact, most economists expect a widening, and our best shot is that the trade balance narrowed only slightly in August.
Median forecast (of 75) -$44bn, ranging from -$40n to -$47.5bn; last -$42.8bn.
 
8:30: Producer price index for Sep…another energy-led increase? We expect energy price increases (lack of seasonal weakness) to dominate an otherwise benign report on producer prices.  Other estimates are consistent with our view on core, but they range all over the map on headline.
On headline, GS: +0.2%; median forecast (of 74): +0.1%, ranging from -0.4% to +1.0%; last +0.4%.
On core, GS: +0.1%; median forecast (of 72): +0.1%, ranging from -0.1% to +0.3%, last +0.1%.
 
8:30: Unemployment insurance claims….still range-bound?  Nobody expects much of a change in initial jobless claims as the labor market appears to be stuck in the mud.  The bias on continuing claims remains toward slightly lower numbers.  None of the figures to be released today covers the reference week for the establishment survey.
For initial claims, median forecast (of 47): 445k, ranging from 425k to 455k; last 445k.
For continuing claims, median forecast (of 13): 4.45 million, ranging from 4.4mm to 4.49mm; last 4.462mm.
 
16:30: Federal Reserve balance sheet….The size of the Fed’s balance sheet remains around $2.3 trillion as repayments of principal on agency debt and MBS is now being reinvested into US Treasuries.  This shift will show up slowly over time, as the amounts per week are in the $3-$4bn neighborhood.
 
17:00: Minneapolis Fed President Narajana Kocherlakota speaks at a payments conference…in Bloomington, MN.  The topic of the conference suggests more of a focus on systemic or regulatory issues rather than the economic outlook or monetary policy, but it’s possible Mr. Kocherlakota will find a way to weigh in about QE2.  His last comments in London, in late September, suggested that his resistance had waned in the wake of disappointments in the data.

From Goldman Sachs

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by trav7777
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 07:09
#648716

all I know is a bag of chips is now $4.

I am not seeing any manifestations of deflation

Login or register to post comments by CPL
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 07:17
#648734

Canuck buck is going for broke again on a 10-15% premium on all currency trades.

 

This is not going to end well…again.

Login or register to post comments by Jason T
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 07:12
#648719

My favorite news piece from Fed official:  The U.S. Federal Reserve has made clear it will not monetize federal budget deficits by printing money, a senior U.S. Federal Reserve official said on Thursday.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63D4NC20100415

Login or register to post comments by Dagny Taggart
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 07:15
#648730

Note the specific wording: The U.S. Federal Reserve has made clear it will not monetize federal budget deficits by printing money, a senior U.S. Federal Reserve official said on Thursday. Duh! They do it all electronically now.

Login or register to post comments by French Frog
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 07:16
#648733

for a split second i believed this was fresh news but then i realised that “anymore” was missing at the end of the first sentence

Login or register to post comments by Jason T
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 07:29
#648759

I should have included..news from April.

Login or register to post comments by dryam
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 07:18
#648737

I promise!, I will not cum.

Login or register to post comments by French Frog
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 07:13
#648722

does the data really matter when ‘bad’ data is systemically ignored?

Login or register to post comments by bada boom
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 07:16
#648732

Proof is in the pudding…

It’s all good until you find grandma’s fingernail.

Login or register to post comments by CPL
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 07:17
#648736

threw up a little in my mouth there

Login or register to post comments by Moonrajah
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 07:15
#648729

16:30: Federal Reserve balance sheet….The size of the Fed’s balance sheet remains around $2.3 trillion as repayments of principal on agency debt and MBS is now being reinvested into US Treasuries.  This shift will show up slowly over time, as the amounts per week are in the $3-$4bn neighborhood.

 

So by Thanksgiving the Fed will overtake China as the largest holder of USTs. After that the whole ‘don’t fuck with your largest creditor’ argument will suddenly become much more omnious.

Login or register to post comments by papaswamp
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 07:38
#648770

Eeeek! NSA UE number jumped by 75,000

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