Guest Post: Future Chaos: There Is No “Plan B”

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homeDARPAcontributorsnewsforumszh-tshirtstoredonaterssmanifesto Shadow Over Asia + Updated China/Japan presentation Posted by: Vitaliy Katsenelson Post date: 10/14/2010 – 09:26 Interview with Vitaliy Katsenelson on the challenges facing China and Japan and the implications to the rest of the world. Contemplations on Oil Posted by: madhedgefundtrader Post date: 10/14/2010 – 08:06 After a tumultuous 2009, oil has been one of the least volatile assets of 2010. It now appears that this crucial commodity is stretching its muscles, limbering up, and getting ready for a serious move. The net effect of the BP oil spill will be a cut of one million barrels a day of Gulf production, about 5% of US consumption. A serious run on the dollar is adding fuel to the fire. (USO), (XOM), (CVX), (OXY), (RSX) When Pigs Can Fly, the Devil Shivers in Hell, and 30% Gains in Western Stock Markets Will Mean Practically Nothing Posted by: smartknowledgeu Post date: 10/14/2010 – 05:04 Since March 6, 2009, the S&P 500 has seemingly been on a remarkable run, gaining 76.68% when priced in our favorite of monopoly currencies, the US dollar. However, when priced in gold, despite the daily rigging games of the government/banker cartel for the past two years, it has only managed to rise 21.64% over the same time span. When priced in silver, the S&P 500 has astonishingly lost 1.8% during the same investment period. To these enormous anomalies, we ask the question,”Will the real currency please stand up?” Navigation PollsDonate To Zero HedgeRecent posts Shopping cart View your shopping cart. User login Username: * Password: * Create new accountRequest new password Zero Hedge Reads Angry BearBearish NewsBoom Bust BlogChina Financial MarketsChris Martenson’s BlogContrary InvestorCoyote BlogCredit WritedownsDaily CapitalistDaneric’s Elliott WavesDealBookDealbreakerDr. Housing BubbleFalkenblogFibozachiFund My Mutal FundGains Pains & CapitalGlobal Economic AnalysisGonzalo LiraImplode-ExplodeInfectious GreedInvesting ContrarianJesse’s Café Américain Market FollyMax KeiserMinyanvilleMises InstituteNaked CapitalismOf Two MindsPension PulseShanky’s TechBlogThe Daily CruxThe Mad Hedge Fund TraderThe Market TickerThe Technical TakeThe Underground InvestorWall St. Cheat SheetWashington’s BlogWealth.netWhen Genius Prevailed Home Guest Post: Future Chaos: There Is No “Plan B” Tyler Durden's picture Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/14/2010 08:06 -0500

Guest PostOPECrecoverySaudi Arabia

Submitted by Chris Martenson

Future Chaos: There Is No “Plan B”

Note: This article builds on my recent report Prediction: Things Will Unravel Faster Than You Think.  It explores the coming energy crunch in more detail by looking at existing government planning and awareness, and the implications of what international recognition of peak oil as early as 2012 might mean.

The hard news is that there is no “Plan B”: the future is likely to be more chaotic than you probably think.  This was the primary conclusion I came to after attending the most recent Association for the Study of Peal Oil & Gas (ASPO) in Washington DC in October, 2010.

The impact of peak oil on markets, lifestyles, and even national solvency deserves our very highest attention – but, it turns out, some important players seem to be paying no attention at all.

ASPO conferences tend to start early, end late, and be packed with more data and information than should be consumed in one sitting.  Despite all this, I was riveted to my seat.  This year’s usual constellation of excellent region-by-region analyses confirmed what past participants already knew: peak conventional oil arrived a few years ago and new fields, enhanced recovery techniques, and unconventional oil plays are barely going to keep up with demand over the next few years. 

But there were two reports that really stood out for me.  The first was given by Rear Admiral Lawrence Rice who presented the findings of the 2010 Joint Operating Environment (a forward-looking document examining the trends, contexts, and implications for future joint force commanders in the US military) which spends 76 pages summarizing the key trends and threats of the world.  “Energy” occupies six of those pages and peak oil dominates the discussion.  Among the conclusions (on pg 29) we find this hidden gem which uses numbers and timing that are eerily similar to those I put forth in my April 2009 report Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch:

By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.

source: http://www.peakoil.net/files/JOE2010.pdf

While there are two “coulds” in that statement, the mere possibility that such an imminent arrival and massive shortfall could be true should give every prudent adult a few second thoughts about what the future may hold. If surplus production capacity disappears in just a couple of years, there’s an entire world of planning that should really take place beforehand at the international, national, community and personal levels. 

More on the JOE report in a minute.  Next I want to turn to a presentation given by Rick Munroe who did his best to discover where in the civilian governmental departments lie the plans for what to do in a liquid fuel-starved future. 

To cut to the chase, it turns out that virtually every department he contacted in both the US and Canada denied having any such reports.  In one humorous exchange by email Natural Resources Canada  stated two things in the same email:

“At this time the Department has no views on [peak oil]. “There is no imminent peak oil challenge….”

It will be interesting to see how NRCan words their emails once they do develop a point of view. 

The main conclusion from Rick’s presentation was that peak pil is being examined closely and taken seriously by military analysts but not civilian authorities.  What few plans that do exist on the civilian side are decades old.

The implications of this are that North America “remains highly vulnerable to a liquid fuel emergency disruption” and, since because there are only a few dusty plans lying around, there will be greater chaos than necessary.

Now back to the JOE report. 

OPEC: To meet climbing global requirements, OPEC will have to increase its output from 30 MBD to at least 50 MBD. Significantly, no OPEC nation, except perhaps Saudi Arabia, is investing sufficient sums in new technologies and recovery methods to achieve such growth. Some, like Venezuela and Russia, are actually exhausting their fields to cash in on the bonanza created by rapidly rising oil prices. (pg 26)

A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity.  While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. (pg 28)

 

Well, the amounts needed from OPEC are quite, shall we say, ‘ambitious’ as they amount to an additional two Saudia Arabias coming on line in order to make up the shortfall.  A massive crunch is not otherwise avoidable.  Let’s be honest, there are no more Saudia Arabias to be found.  Perhaps we could cobble one together out of thousands of smaller, less productive fields, but the likelihood of a few massive fields 1,100 feet under the ground waiting to be found is extremely remote.  People in the business of actually producing oil know that producing from smaller wells takes more time, equipment and manpower. 

Meanwhile, I also happen to agree with their assessment that the details of the effects are difficult to predict but that the general theme will be one of reduced growth, and that’s under the best of circumstances.  More likely we’ll have to figure out how to operate on zero or even negative growth.

So I came away from the ASPO conference pondering two completely polar trends that combined to create a lasting discomfort.  On the one hand we have more and more private and military organizations coming to the conclusion that peak oil is imminent and will change everything, possibly disruptively.  On the other hand there appear to be no plans within the civilian government to deal with a liquid fuels emergency.

While we can expect that such plans will be tossed together when necessary, I would hope that Katrina taught us a few lessons about developing plans on the fly after the disaster has already arrived.  Sure, things got done, but they were certainly suboptimal and led to more confusion and more chaos than if they’d been carefully developed, practiced, and debugged.

The way that I understand the lack of planning on the part of the civilian side is that peak oil does not present any easy political wins, if any at all.  Given the 2-year planning cycle in DC, it’s never a good time to bring up such an unpleasant subject.  Politics trumps necessity. 

What can be rather easily predicted here is that when the next fuel crisis arrives there will be more chaos than necessary.  Some areas will get completely stiffed on their fuel allotments while other areas will be reasonably well supplied.  The reason that this can be easily predicted is because it more or less already happened in Europe during a protest by French fishermen inspired by high fuel prices.  They blockaded ports in late May of 2008 and by early June the action had spread across Europe.  Shelves were quickly stripped bare of essential goods, tensions mounted, and petrol stations ran dry in a hurry.   

And these were just the effects of a port blockade and tanker truck strike.  What would happen with a real and persistent shortage of fuel?  Well, if it were perceived to be due to a structural and permanent inability of the global oil market to meet demand, prices would rise stratospherically until demand was cut off.  The only problem is, letting prices determine which industries idle back may not be the best plan. 

Consider the case of agriculture.  If full ‘pass through pricing’ is the mechanism of rationing, which it currently is, then less food will be grown.  With world grain stocks at historic lows this is one area where we might not want to let Mr. Market dictate the activities of farmers based on fuel price.  To do otherwise would require a plan of some sort and none appear to be in effect.

That’s the source of my discomfort.  It’s not necessarily that large organizations are beginning to share my sense of timing and impact of peak oil, although that will hasten the tipping point of awareness – it’s that somehow I always thought that because Admiral Hyman Rickover knew well that this day would come (in the 1950’s!) that 60 years would have been sufficient lead-time to assemble some credible plans.

No plans = unnecessary chaos.

The lack of planning also betrays a very common attitude which might be summarized as “we’ll deal with that when we get there.”  I detect this attitude in a wide range of individuals and market participants so it’s not at all uncommon.  However, I think it’s a mistake to hold this view.  When (not if, but when) full awareness of peak oil arrives on the international stock, bond and commodity markets we’ll discover just how narrow the doorways really are.  Only a few will manage to preserve their wealth by squeezing through the doorway early, most will not make it through. As mentioned frequently on this site, our What Should I Do? guide for developing personal resiliency against a post-peak future offers a valuable resource for those just getting started in their preparations.

This thinking is explored in greater depth in Part 2 of this report (enrollment required) in which I discuss strategies to fill the official vacuum by developing our own plans for what we should do in response.

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by Goldenballs
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:08
#648861

Plan B does exist and is a top secret project run by NASA  the end result is a manned landing on Mars.

Login or register to post comments by Mongo
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:14
#648881

Well that solves the problem!… or at least redefines “diversifying risk”.

Login or register to post comments by SheepDog-One
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:20
#648916

You mean Operation Goldmember?

Login or register to post comments by Vergeltung
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:25
#648933

lol

Login or register to post comments by MayIMommaDogFac…
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:36
#648963

Will it be Schwarzenegger?

Login or register to post comments by Sudden Debt
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:39
#648978

Just google HAARP. There is a plan B, C, D, E, F against the global currency mess.

You just need to be willing to open your eyes.

Login or register to post comments by I am a Man I am…
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:44
#649192

Thank god for haarp, keeps those pesky hurricanes in the atlantic and away from the coast….yep.

Login or register to post comments by chopper read
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:13
#649262

HAARP is the subject of numerous conspiracy theories, with individuals ascribing various hidden motives and capabilities to the project. Journalist Sharon Weinberger called HAARP “the Moby Dick of conspiracy theories” and said the popularity of conspiracy theories often overshadows the benefits HAARP may provide to the scientific community.[15][16] Skeptic computer scientist David Naiditch called HAARP “a magnet for conspiracy theorists”, saying the project has been blamed for triggering catastrophes such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, thunderstorms, and devastating earthquakes in Pakistan and the Philippines aimed to “shake up” terrorists. Naiditch says HAARP has been blamed for diverse events including major power outages, the downing of TWA Flight 800, Gulf War syndrome, and chronic fatigue syndrome. Conspiracy theorists have also suggested links between HAARP and the work of Nikola Tesla (particularly potential combinations of HAARP energy with Tesla’s work on pneumatic small-scale earthquake generation) and physicist Bernard Eastlund. According to Naiditch, HAARP is an attractive target for conspiracy theorists because “its purpose seems deeply mysterious to the scientifically uninformed”.[17]

Conspiracy theorists have blamed HAARP for numerous earthquakes. An opinion piece on a Venezuelan state-run television channel’s website named HAARP as a cause of the 2010 Haiti earthquake. [18][19][20]

Login or register to post comments by carbonmutant
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:14
#649267

Low income housing…

http://news.pacificnews.org/news/view_article.html?article_id=eed74d9d44c30493706fe03f4c9b3a77

 

Login or register to post comments by Mariposa de Oro
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 11:26
#649549

LOL.  I get a kick at the FEMA camp/Bush/Marital law meme of these stories.  Now, don’t get me wrong.  I’m convinced the gov is preparing a police state in the USA.  However, Bush has been gone for almost two years.  The articles about Bush/FEMA Camps/Martial law haven’t been updated to include the current regime’s progress in the police state creation.  My three favorites are the airport x-rays, x-ray vans, and Czar John Holdren’s plan in incorporate UAVs into the national airspace.  Why he wants drones patrolling the skies over America, I can only imagine, but judging by usage in the ME, and HSA’s focus on ‘right-wing extremists and domestic terrorists, I’d say its not to help out the ‘little guy’.

Login or register to post comments by scratch_and_sniff
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:11
#648872

There are lots of tiny little plan B’s, they all add up and we live happily ever after.

Login or register to post comments by Mongo
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:13
#648880

Still waiting for peak stupidity…

Login or register to post comments by bada boom
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:17
#648893

Or the parabolic rally.

Login or register to post comments by Mongo
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:18
#648905

LOL

Login or register to post comments by SheepDog-One
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:19
#648907

Sept 1st to today isnt enough of a lunatic parabolic rally for ya?

Login or register to post comments by Lux Fiat
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:14
#649099

Yep.  I like potentially promising small caps, and trade in that arena frequently.  The number of near vertical lift-offs of late is amazing.  In the past, that has usually been a pretty good warning sign.  However, if BB keeps ramping liquidity, hard to say how long it could go on.  Then of course, there is always the laggard or two that keeps tap dancing right above the stop level.

Login or register to post comments by kridkrid
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:18
#648902

I’ll introduce you to my mother-in-law at your request.

Login or register to post comments by Steak
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:17
#648897

algae bitchez!

There’s no doubt that algae-based fuel is tantalizing — unlike crops, trees, the sun and wind, algae starts out already half-comprised of hydrocarbons useable for bio-diesel, as Debora MacKenzie writes at New Scientist. That’s why Silicon Valley, the Pentagon and serious oil companies are attempting to crack the code and scale up algae into a global transportation fuel. And if you ask the chin- and chest-out Venter, his own efforts are headed for tickertape-parade-type success: “Designing and building synthetic cells will be the basis of a new industrial revolution,” he told Pollack. “The goal is to replace the entire petrochemical industry.” 

http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/09/07/craig_venters_one_man_algae_fuels_bubble_0 

Login or register to post comments by spartan117
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:56
#649042

Seaweed, bitchez.  It’s abundant, naturally occuring, and full of vitamins and nutrients.  Except for the ones floating in and around the GOM, of course.

Login or register to post comments by kurt_cagle
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:25
#649129

But the seaweed in the GOM is full of oil already!

Login or register to post comments by downrodeo
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:03
#649062

Exactly. There are alternatives. We just have to be creative enough to discover or utilize the solutions to their full potential. I think he was right about the wake up call. Although, maybe if farmers were charging more for their crops based on higher fuel prices, it would create an incentive for us to explore other ways of fueling agriculture.

 

 

Login or register to post comments by morkov
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:17
#649103

meanwhile stock-up on bicycles …

Login or register to post comments by Sneeve
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:14
#649097

Yeah, algae sounds great, but it ain’t gonna happen on this planet in a useful timeframe. Someone who knows (Robert Rapier) writes about it here:

http://tinyurl.com/373k43y

and elsewhere on his blog

 

Login or register to post comments by the rookie cynic
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 11:08
#649242

Alternatives are pie-in-the-sky pipe dreams at this point. The EIA suggest we’ll need 739 quadrillion BTUs/year by 2035. That’s a hell of a lot of “alternatives.” So much for Plan B.

Needless to say, I’m not holding my breath on that one.

From my blog a few days back:

“Not only are these critical raw material getting scarce, it’s also takes more and more energy to get them.

Nature, the ultimate lender of last resort has a balance sheet problem: depletion.

Eventually we will have a zero sum game; it will cost more to get the stuff out of the ground than it’s worth.

The powers-that-be are in denial; on a finite planet, exponential growth is an oxymoron.

Contrary to what they preach in Washington and Wall Street, our current economic system destroys the basic resources it depends on to survive.  We’re committing environmental, and by extension, economic suicide.”

http://therookiecynic.wordpress.com/2010/10/12/your-lethal-education-par…

Login or register to post comments by Rusty Shorts
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:17
#648899

California’s Plan B = Issue Marijuana Pot Bonds

http://www.businessinsider.com/california-may-back-state-debt-with-marijuana-taxes-if-its-legalized-2010-10

Login or register to post comments by Hulk
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:36
#649165

Just what Kalifornia needs, more potheads…

Login or register to post comments by chopper read
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:16
#649272

repealing the prohibition?  …what a rapid change in ‘ethics’.  ha, ha.   

Login or register to post comments by SheepDog-One
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:18
#648900

The future is a lot more chaotic than the Zerohedge permabull boner chart posters think. I myself know what chaos is coming, loaded up with guns beans and bullets for months now.

Login or register to post comments by Mercury
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:37
#648971

Plus, you may be able to fart your way to hydro-carbon independence…

Login or register to post comments by SheepDog-One
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:28
#649134

Hey it worked for Bartertown! Not shit, FUEL! Who run Bartertown? MasterBlaster! *toot*

Login or register to post comments by Sunshine n Lollipops
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:42
#648987

KAOS agents to Benny:

K: 200 billion dollars by 3pm.
Benny: 200 billion dollars by 3pm?
K: You seem a bit slow, is there someone else I can talk to?

Login or register to post comments by BobPaulson
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:25
#648934

Peak oil is already hitting us. It won’t land like a tonne of bricks IMO, it will look like a tonne of bricks in retrospect, but the pain it creates will be attributed to other economic issues. If there is more gas and coal for the medium term, it just makes driving more expensive, which will be good. Not sure how the effect on prices will be felt in a backdrop of rapid currency devaluation…

Login or register to post comments by doolittlegeorge
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:36
#648965

think the Saudi’s are out?  Dubai collapsed less than one year ago.  Seem longer than that, doesn’t it?

Login or register to post comments by BobPaulson
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:42
#649189

The 2nd and 3rd majors Cantrell and Burgan (sp?) are both past peak. They must pretend Ghewar is not peak to reduce panic – of course even past peak it continues to produce. After that our good friends in Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Russia have good sized conventional reserves. I think the fact that prices have been so stable is evidence of how weak the U.S. economy is.

Login or register to post comments by 101 years and c…
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:29
#648944

Is peak oil really a threat as the global depression takes it grip and demand drops 20-30% from current levels?

you folks can talk about peak oil….i’ll talk about peak demand (already hit).

 

Login or register to post comments by Mako
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:35
#648962

I agree.

We’re always at oil peak. 

Login or register to post comments by Hulk
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:06
#649070

Don’t forget that demand in Asia is increasing…

Login or register to post comments by espirit
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:29
#648947

Looking forward to the continuation of your series. During the past rash of hurricanes impacting the east coast of Florida, it was interesting to know that employees / contractors of fuel oil importers of port servicable areas were not able to obtain available gasoline or diesel to fuel their trucks. So… I am inclined to believe there are contingency plans in place, but perhaps not available to the average joe.

Dig deep into the Homeland Security Plans and you will find what you seek. 

Login or register to post comments by TradingJoe
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:33
#648957

Everyones Plan B is different, based on their personal situation. I think food, shelter and security are the main ingredients! Rest can be accomplished as we go!

Login or register to post comments by Mako
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:44
#648958

“The hard news is that there is no “Plan B”: the future is likely to be more chaotic than you probably think.”

I always word it like this… there is no backup financial system.  There is no backup generator to be turned on. 

Login or register to post comments by Gully Foyle
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:42
#649184

Mako

Of course there is a plan B, and C and Z.

Every possible action effecting the US/World/TPTB has already been modeled.

Every conceivable scenario has been planned for with acceptable amount of loss due to death and destruction.

What the fuck do “Think Tanks” due?

 

Login or register to post comments by ATM
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:36
#648964

Plan B is to own a donkey and expect to never travel beyond 20 miles from home unless you have some wealth. Maybe the Amish were right afterall?

Login or register to post comments by duo
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:36
#648966

peak stupidity = ethanol

irreplaceable oil, water, and farmland used to create subsidies for agribusiness and kickbacks for a few senators.

Login or register to post comments by system failure
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:37
#648969

WTH is going on? Why is the market not green green green!!! Are (BEN) they losing control is the last acts of desparation?

Login or register to post comments by cnbcsucks
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:45
#648998

Not to worry.  Just the usual “get the token selling out of the way” in the first 10 minutes and then we rocket higher on abysmal economic news and a crashing dollar. 

Login or register to post comments by B9K9
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:41
#648983

The impact of peak oil on markets, lifestyles, and even national solvency … some important players seem to be paying no attention

I don’t understand why some people continue to promote the concept that only a few, the prescient and astute, have a correct handle on future economic drivers. This attitude is arrogance and hubris defined, rolled into one annoying manifestation of pride going before the fall.

Memo to CM: the power-elite get it. Not only do they get it, they are way, way ahead of the rest of us in terms of advance preparation. This act being foisted on the gullible about seemingly not paying attention is merely a rear-guard action designed to prevent the competition – um, you – from cluing in and confusing their efforts.

Login or register to post comments by Andrew G
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:03
#649246

Of course they do know what’s going on. That’s reason #6 they’re trying (and succeeding) in reverting us back to feudalism – how the hell will they be able to afford the fuel for their Ferraris and tanks if the average Joe, Kumar and Boon all use it.

Login or register to post comments by Mercury
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:41
#648985

Remind me again why we are tilting at windmills and solar panels and not exploiting the crap out of this country’s massive and recently accessible shale (and other) natural gas resources?

Power plants and many types of diesel type machinery run just fine on the stuff.

Login or register to post comments by Mako
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:47
#649000

There will be plenty of energy not being used in the future.

Just like back in the 30s they started dumping crops out at sea for the lack of demand, yet people were starving onshore.

Not only will they not be putting new power plants online they will taking existing ones offline. 

Login or register to post comments by Cvillian
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:50
#649009

Perhaps because they’re not sustainable resources? The ole phrase “kicking the can down the road” apply here?

Login or register to post comments by nmewn
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:33
#649153

The atom is quite sustainable.

If we had not gotten side tracked by chicken littles running through the crowd with their hair on fire screaming the sky is falling most of our electric power generation would be nuclear by now. But no…we were treated to endless magazine articles and movies on Three Mile Island.

The public was effectively brainwashed into paying more for less.

And here we are…well done greenies.

So the Plan A now…is US tax payer subsidized solar power assembled with Mexican labor & bird killing wind farms where the cost of energy does not go down but up for said taxpayer…excellent.

What do they do for an encore…mail you a free tire gauge…oh, wait, I feel a campaign slogan coming on 😉

Login or register to post comments by BobPaulson
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:50
#649210

Agree that nuclear will come back big time, but don’t cite the oil lobby BS about wind turbines being “bird killing”, it’s a red herring (and I work in the fossil fuel industry).

Login or register to post comments by nmewn
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:40
#649367

I admit I have no idea of the extent of the problem and it must be low because windmill use is small…but to my knowledge the Peregrine Fund is not part of big oil (looks like Turner’s kid is a Director) but there will necessarily have to be an “acceptable level” of death to birds for this technology…there is no other way around large blades slicing through the air.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2005-01-04-windmills-usat_x.htm

My point of course, was the state sanctioned fascism of subsidizing companies to make them viable on my dime, along with the unintended consequences of every action taken (past & present) pursuing a coherent energy policy.

Login or register to post comments by BobPaulson
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 11:04
#649470

Windows kill more birds but as you say, there are more of them. Point taken though. 

As for fascism, it’s usually state sanctioned, no?

Login or register to post comments by RockyRacoon
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:41
#649372

Geothermal…. and I’ll not add the requisite “bitchez” expletive.

Login or register to post comments by doolittlegeorge
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:44
#648996

There was no plan A.  That’s why I find what going on as “the ultimate boner.”  It’s funny, but it’s not.  Like the infantry guy laughing while he pulls the trigger.  It’s not funny, actually or in actuality (obviously.)  When dealing with the government “boners like this can last a while.” 

Login or register to post comments by Species8472
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:46
#649005

“The only problem is, letting prices determine which industries idle back may not be the best plan. “

Yes it is the best plan. Less food might be produced but you assume that is bad. It’s not if the mix changes, less meat, more grain etc.

 

Login or register to post comments by ILikeBoats
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:48
#649011

“Peak oil” is a myth. Easily proved to be false, if you do the research.  Example: find out how many wells have been drilled in Texas, and how many drilled in Iraq (where we know they have almost as much oil as Saudia Arabia and the lifting costs are less).

What is not, is “Peak Refinery Capacity” – even if we could pump 50% more per day out of the ground, it still has to be refined.  From what I can see, that is currently the bottleneck – and it can take years to bring a refinery online.

Login or register to post comments by low_frequency_trader
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:10
#649084

Ummm, here’s a slightly more detailed analysis . . .

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5969

Login or register to post comments by ILikeBoats
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:59
#649231

There is a lot wrong and even stupid in that analysis, but I am not going to bother refuting it – it should be obvious if you ask yourself, “what are the charts posted NOT saying”?

I gave you a simple example, one you could research on google in less than five minutes.

Here, let me do the work for you:

Texas – approximately 100,000 oil wells in operation.

Iraq – approximately 3,000 oil wells in operation. Very underdeveloped, due to the previous embargo most of their tech is 30 years old (1979 era).

Oil, natural gas, and newer sources like gas hydrates are not the problem – especially any time oil stays above $55 per gallon for any length of time.  The issue is refinery capacity – refineries cost a lot to build, take a while to build, and operate on slim margins, so the demand absolutely has to be there for years in order to make it worthwhile to build it.

The easier way to go, is to do what refineries are doing – tighten up the market by a bit and get better margins on what they do refine.

Login or register to post comments by BobPaulson
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:00
#649235

One figure is all you need to see it’s not a myth (speaking for conventional crude):

http://www.durangobill.com/RolloverPics/RolloverGap.jpg (this is just one place that has the figure posted, not advocating this site).

They have been exploring like mad this past decade, especially when prices went to the moon. There are no more massive reservoirs “hiding” out there kids, sorry for the bad news. If there were, why would they not disclose them? A conspiracy to push green energy? Come on. The more recent, so-called, big conventional finds are puny compared to the low hanging fruit from the middle east.  It’s heavy oil, coal and nukes from here on in (and a bit of a gas glut we’re currently enjoying in North America right now which we get at the expense of fresh water).

Login or register to post comments by low_frequency_trader
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:48
#649015

The forecast from Leonard Cohen . . .

Login or register to post comments by kaiserhoff
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:53
#649022

We haven’t thought about conservation yet.  Biggest restaurant in town just replaced a flat, black, tar paper roof, with a new flat, black tar paper roof.  What they did not do is use a white sealant, or at least a couple of gallons of white paint, while they had the men and the ladders up there.  Could easily have cut their air conditioning bill for the next 20 years.

OK they are rednecks, but they are not unusual.  When power gets expensive, even the sheeple will make adjustments.   

Login or register to post comments by tip e. canoe
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:29
#649144

don’t got a be a redneck to be stupid kaiser.   just watched a nice new 20,000 s.f. black tar roof get laid up north this summer.   of course, the landlord still worships the altar of extend & pretend.    la la la la la

Login or register to post comments by SheepDog-One
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:31
#649147

LOL, good one! I remember those idiots talking about all white cars, roofs, and pavement. No wonder this country is so screwed its run by retards who make themselves feel better by calling everyone ‘rednecks’.

Login or register to post comments by chopper read
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 11:04
#649472

+1

Login or register to post comments by MountainMan
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:50
#649023

Peak Oil will be looked back in 50 years as another scam perpetrated on the world population. Vast regions of the planet have not even been touched!

Login or register to post comments by Sneeve
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:19
#649109

But vast areas of the planet have been touched already and the result is a lot of yuck. You wanting more of that? Wonderful.

Login or register to post comments by Gully Foyle
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:28
#649142

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_percentage_of_land_on_earth_is_dominated_…

29% of Earth is land mass. Of that 29% humans occupy less than 1% of that area. Of the remaining 28% about 40% is pure wilderness. 14% is true desert and 15% has desert like characteristics. 9% is Antarctica. Most of the remaining 22% are agricultural areas. There may be other areas with a human footprint of some kind but it is insignificant in any relation to global warming.

 

Login or register to post comments by Gully Foyle
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:34
#649162

MountainMan

Peak oil is another scam to manipulate the genpop.

 

Imagine a future where everyone has x amount of Carbon credits to purchase food, transportation and utilities. Only rich and corporations may purchase more credits. Poor people can’t.

Every item, from Tomatoes to bus rides, is designated by the amount of Carbon credits it takes to produce.

Todays society is designed to be more efficient because people find it hard to move from one side of the nation to the other. It makes for Demographic stability. ( One of the issues with prisons is they force family to relocate closer to the prisons, thus breaking up various voting blocks).

In a Carbon Credit based society it becoms even harder for single entities to relocate.

 

Login or register to post comments by samsara
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:59
#649230

It must be nice arriving at conclusions without being encumbered by any knowledge of Geology or Thermodynamics.

Riddle me this;

Name the top 3 producing fields in the world and their current flow rate?

Would For-Profit oil companies be drilling thru 5000+ feet of water and another 2000 feet of rock at extreme cost if there were other easier “Untouched” regions to plunder?

 

Login or register to post comments by malek
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 11:37
#649584

Does “easier” include overthrowing or invading other countries to get access to untouched regions?

Login or register to post comments by wafflehead
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:50
#649024

electric cars will take care of peak oil little by little. This is nothing but some doom and gloom

Login or register to post comments by Gully Foyle
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:43
#649190

wafflehead

Jevons Paradox creates more problems.

Login or register to post comments by cossack55
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 08:51
#649028

“They” don’t need a Plan B.  “They” know we ain’t gettin’ to 2012, much less 2015.  Hope ya got a few tubes of SPF 4000.

Login or register to post comments by DarkMath
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:08
#649080

Velvet weekend. It will allow an orderly collapse of the dollar. Panic is so chaotic.

Login or register to post comments by Caviar Emptor
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:12
#649092

No plan B = One Trick Pony. The Fed only knows to print. Only ever a question of how much and when. 

America has undergone “PLanned Obsolescence” at the hands of an elite that don’t care. 

 

Login or register to post comments by Jason T
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:13
#649095

Math says exponential growth is not natural.  

 

Unlimited oil not natural and debt based money with interest is not natural.

 

Both will implode.

Login or register to post comments by malek
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 11:39
#649598

Hmm?
Exponential growth happens in nature all the time, until limiting factors come into play.

Login or register to post comments by Kina
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:20
#649111

Must remember to set aside some cash for Austrlaian energy stocks, for after the next market crash.

Login or register to post comments by Gully Foyle
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:25
#649128

Peak this, Peak that.

This is a REAL problem.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/10/11/think_again_global_agin…

Think Again: Global Aging A gray tsunami is sweeping the planet — and not just in the places you expect. How did the world get so old, so fast?

It’s true that the world’s population overall will increase by roughly one-third over the next 40 years, from 6.9 to 9.1 billion, according to the U.N. Population Division. But this will be a very different kind of population growth than ever before — driven not by birth rates, which have plummeted around the world, but primarily by an increase in the number of elderly people. Indeed, the global population of children under 5 is expected to fall by 49 million as of midcentury, while the number of people over 60 will grow by 1.2 billion. How did the world grow so gray, so quickly.

Eventually, the last echoes of the global baby boomers will fade away. Then, because of the continuing fall in birth rates, humans will face the very real prospect that our numbers will fall as fast — if not faster — than the rate at which they once grew. Russia’s population is already 7 million below what it was in 1991. As for Japan, one expert has calculated that the very last Japanese baby will be born in the year 2959, assuming the country’s low fertility rate of 1.25 children per woman continues unchanged. Young Austrian women now tell pollsters their ideal family size is less than two children, enough to replace themselves but not their partners. Worldwide, there is a 50 percent chance that the population will be falling by 2070, according to a recent study published in Nature. By 2150, according to one U.N. projection, the global population could be half what it is today.

Today, however, we see that birth rates are dipping below replacement levels even in countries hardly known for luxury. Emerging first in Scandinavia in the 1970s, what the experts call “subreplacement fertility” quickly spread to the rest of Europe, Russia, most of Asia, much of South America, the Caribbean, Southern India, and even Middle Eastern countries like Lebanon, Morocco, and Iran. Of the 59 countries now producing fewer children than needed to sustain their populations, 18 are characterized by the United Nations as “developing,” i.e., not rich.

Indeed, most developing countries are experiencing population aging at unprecedented rates. Consider Iran. As recently as the late 1970s, the average Iranian woman had nearly seven children. Today, for reasons not well understood, she has just 1.74, far below the average 2.1 children needed to sustain a population over time. Accordingly, between 2010 and 2050, the share of Iran’s population 60 and older is expected to increase from 7.1 to 28.1 percent. This is well above the share of 60-plus people found in Western Europe today and about the same percentage that is expected for most Northern European countries in 2050. But unlike Western Europe, Iran and many other developing regions experiencing the same hyper-aging — from Cuba to Croatia, Lebanon to the Wallis and Futuna Islands — will not necessarily have a chance to get rich before they get old.

Asia will also be plagued by a chronic shortage of women in the coming decades, which could leave the most populous region on Earth with the same skewed sex ratios as the early American West. Due to selective abortion, China has about 16 percent more boys than girls, which many predict will lead to instability as tens of millions of “unmarriageable” men find other outlets for their excess libido. India has nearly the same sex-ratio imbalance and also a substantial difference in birth rates between its southern (mostly Hindu) states and its northern (more heavily Muslim) states, which could contribute to ethnic tension. …

“Old People Will Just Work Longer.”

But only if older workers are healthy. And that’s a big if. You might have noticed a lot more middle-age Americans using canes, walkers, and wheelchairs these days. So many of Walmart’s customers are now physically impaired that the giant retailer has replaced many of its shopping carts with electric scooters that allow shoppers to remain seated as they cruise the aisles. Such sights are reflected in statistics showing that, for the first time since such record-keeping began, disability rates are no longer improving among middle-age Americans, but getting worse.

According to a recent Rand Corp. study published in Health Affairs, more than 40 percent of Americans ages 50 to 64 already have difficulties performing ordinary activities of daily life, such as walking a quarter mile or climbing 10 steps without resting — a substantial rise from just 10 years ago. Because of this declining physical fitness among the middle-aged, we can expect the next generation of senior citizens to be much more impaired than the current one.

It isn’t just Americans. Obesity and sedentary lifestyles are spreading globally. Between 1995 and 2000, the number of obese adults increased worldwide from 200 million to 300 million — with 115 million of these living in developing countries. From Chile to China, McDonald’s and KFC are opening franchises every day, even as people everywhere spend more and more of their time in automobiles and in front of flat-screen TVs and computer monitors. More than a billion people worldwide are now estimated to be overweight, creating a global pandemic of chronic conditions from heart disease to diabetes.

Login or register to post comments by Mariposa de Oro
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 11:50
#649649

The dropping fertility rates around the world may not be so unexplained.  Bill Gates, the UN, and assorted friends, have this little vaccination program, as well as a few other programs, who’s objective is to reduce the global human population.  If you really want to be horrified, start looking into what the crowd of enviro-MENTALS (and I do emphasize mental) have planned for humanity.  (Big Green=Population Control) Give a bit of thought to the ‘soft-kill’ methods of population reduction, and then look around.  I did.  I then got a horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach.  I feel sorry for my 22 yo daughter and those of her generation and after.

Login or register to post comments by cbaba
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:25
#649131

This was expected since last 50 years.

If there is no plan B then we have to face the reality …

One day scientists will find other energy sources to replace oil. Then we will have a better world.

Then there will be no Saudis, Iranians as nations sitting on oil and doing nothing, just spreading their way of Sharia Islam.

One this good out of this is There will be less War in the world.

Most military equipment works with gas( ships,planes,tanks,trucks etc..), they will all be obsolete when we use  another energy sources.

 

Login or register to post comments by Henry Chinaski
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:40
#649174

Most military equipment works with gas( ships,planes,tanks,trucks etc..), they will all be obsolete when we use  another energy sources.

STUXNET!

One of the smartest people I know once said “information is the highest form of energy.”  STUXNET would be an example of this. 

 

Login or register to post comments by samseau
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:25
#649132

peak oil is over-hyped.  no one here can predict the future course of technology, so the speculation over peak oil is mostly hysteria.

 

this peak oil reminds me of paul elrich

Login or register to post comments by Mariposa de Oro
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 11:54
#649661

Could it actually be Man-Made Peak Oil?

Never let a crisis go to waste, even if you have to create it yourself.

Login or register to post comments by Scaramanga
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:33
#649155

I prefer this plan B http://www.planb-club.com/

Login or register to post comments by Henry Chinaski
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:33
#649156

Just this morning, I was thinking that Plan B may already be underway.  I don’t believe it will work, but the following actions may be intented to mitigate the effects of peak oil.

Mandate ethanol in gasoline to mechanically destroy older incompatible ICE’s, then people will have to buy whatever rollerskate cars that are mandated that much sooner. 

Crush the economy to conserve resources and lower expectations.

Get more people dependent on the government for sustenance to make them more compliant.

Erect a smart grid under he control of central planning to shut users down as needed.

Outlaw incandescent lights and require CFL to force everyone to live in a cold dreary light that sucks the life out them leading to depression and apathy in order to have as many people as possible sitting around in the cold dark and not doing much.   

perhaps you can think of others….

Login or register to post comments by Mariposa de Oro
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 11:58
#649675

Soft Kill Population Reduction via ObamaCare and health care rationing.

So much cleaner than those nasty death camps.  No muss-no fuss!  Yeah, about 30 million ‘Capitalists’ should do it….

Login or register to post comments by Dagny Taggart
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:40
#649175

But,I thought “they” had masonic treasure chests full of CFR Philosopher-Kings? Like the ones out at the Bohemian Grove? No? Bilderberg, my ass.

Seriously, do you think the Pentagon top brass would agree there is no plan B?

Login or register to post comments by doomandbloom
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:46
#649198

Out of chaos comes order.

– Illuminati

 

( or we could populate another planet as suggested by WWF.. http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2010/10/wwf-second-earth-needed/1 )

Login or register to post comments by DavosSherman
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:51
#649211

Time to invest in horses, horse carriages & horse plows…

Login or register to post comments by Dagny Taggart
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:03
#649248

Ya’ better make sure you can get your hands on an ongoing supply of non-engineered seeds first.

Login or register to post comments by TheDriver
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 11:31
#649565

Amish, bitches. (couldn’t resist).

Login or register to post comments by CrashisOptimistic
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 09:57
#649225

Let’s take this all one at a time:

1) Oil isn’t everywhere.  Japan has not a drop, which is why they are willing to go to extremes about China grabbing the Senkaku Islands south of Okinawa.  The Phillipines have no oil.  Zero oil production there.  Zero from Portugal.  Zero from Spain.  Oil isn’t everywhere.  It IS Finite, and there’s nothing anyone can do about that.

2) The places where it was, are becoming relentlessly past tense.  As in Oklahoma.  As in Texas.  Oklahoma oil production hit 750,000 barrels per day in 1928.  From there, relentlessly down and today it is 150,000 bpd, with 2010 technology.  You will see in all articles a cry for “more investment and development” as The Answer, but all that can do is make the downslope more gradual.  You cannot create oil underground with money.

3) Oil isn’t energy.  Expecting 30 horsepower engines powered by batteries to plow the fields that require 450 horsepower tractors is just silly.  No, don’t wave your hand and say the electric tractor will just take longer.  Planting and harvesting seasons are only so long.  There are 10,000 acre farms now.  They have to be plowed.  Electric won’t do it.  Ever.  Oil isn’t energy.  There is no energy crisis.  There is an oil crisis, and there is nothing anyone can do about it.  

4) You can make oil last a very long time — by not producing and using it.  This is the foundation of quotes you hear about Bakken of how it will last 200 years.  Of course it will, if you never extract more than 400K barrels/day, and odds are it, like all shale, will never produce any faster than that.

5) Expect international sharing?  The US has 300 million people out of the planet’s 7 billion.  That’s 4%.  We use 25% of the oil.  When it comes time to share, do you think America is going to endure a reduction of oil use (and 1:1 mapping of GDP) by a factor of 5?  GDP tracks oil consumption precisely.  Can any administration tolerate a 5:1 reduction of oil use/GDP growth?  No.  Of course not.  The US would never agree.  War is then inevitable.

Login or register to post comments by Gimp
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:05
#649252

No oil could be the end of globalization.

Stay local and thrive…food, work, social network etcetra.

Login or register to post comments by 84Hog
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:20
#649287

That sounds fine, except that if there is no oil, there’s likely to be no work or food either.  Your social network is going to be stressed too.  The “adjustment phase” is going to be a bitch…  Long Glock, canned food and water filters.

Login or register to post comments by SipOnSodapop
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:14
#649266

Anyone notice how when the dollar goes down, market goes up?

Login or register to post comments by peak experience
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:18
#649277

peak experience

Login or register to post comments by bankonzhongguo
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:18
#649279

Well I just got through walking through my vegetable fields this morning.  I had enough food on the ground just to feed a small town, never mind the ongoing yields.  If there is not enough gas to get to market – I don’t care. I’m organic good and so are my neighbors.

Sweet potatos bitchez!

Login or register to post comments by tip e. canoe
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:24
#649312

bankon, mad props to you for such a bountiful harvest.

how big are your fields?

how long did it take you work the soil up to generate such yields?

do you till or no-till?

how many hours you spend a week farming?

curious to learn more if you care to share…thx

Login or register to post comments by TDoS
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:24
#649314

Some people won’t be happy until the last forest is clear cut, the last mountain is leveled, and the last ocean is an acidic, oily soup — all to chase some mirage of progress.

Peak oil is very real, and only really requires that you concede to the fact that the Earth is finite to understand. Get that? The Earth is finite. It only has so much to give, and that includes oil. We have used up over half of what it had to offer, and all that is left is in smaller fields, deeper underground, and often far out to sea.

There can never be economic recovery without spurring the price of oil upwards, which will result in kicking the economy in the teeth, dragging it back into recession or depression. This will be the whimper of our demise.

Either accept it, and prepare yourself, or keep believing in the fairly tales about alternative sources that don’t come close to providing the EROI that oil does, and that cannot be made into the over 500,000 products oil is used as a base for. If you only think about liquid fuel for cars, then you’re missing the majority of the picture.

Login or register to post comments by Bartanist
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:27
#649318

There are many alternatives and can be many plan Bs. The question is not the availability of the technoligy. It is all available. The question is how a country such as the US transitions 300 million people from the current plan to plan B.

My guess is that one plan B involves the missing $2.3 trillion of missing Pentagon funds that not surprisingly stopped being investigated on 9/11 when the accountants were blown up in the 9/11 Sunstein conspiracy attack on the Pentagon.

So, what exactly was built underneath Stapleton airport and other Rocky Mountain bases?

 

Login or register to post comments by tip e. canoe
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 11:38
#649586

always wondered why Don Donny chose 9/10 to hold a news conference on that.   must have been just another co-inki-dink.

Login or register to post comments by Anton LaVey
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 10:35
#649344

Ahem.

Regarding this sentence:

The reason that this can be easily predicted is because it more or less already happened in Europe during a protest by French fishermen inspired by high fuel prices.  They blockaded ports in late May of 2008 and by early June the action had spread across Europe.  Shelves were quickly stripped bare of essential goods, tensions mounted, and petrol stations ran dry in a hurry.  

I don’t know which Europe the author is referring to, but it certainly is not the Europe I have been living in for 40+ years. While they certainly were tensions in France around that time, and some regions of France (NOT the whole of Europe, juste SOME parts of France) did have some petrol shortages, that was far from the chaos and shortages the author is implying.

While Peak Oil is certainly a challenge, and a very important one for the coming years, I strongly suspect it will much less of a problem in Europe, where people commute less and use public transportations a lot more than in the USA or Canada, for instance.

I, for one, is looking forward to a future with a lot less gas guzzlers on the road…

Make of that what you will.

Login or register to post comments by WALLST8MY8BALL
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 11:22
#649538

Plan B. It walks on 4 legs,it chews grass, and is served in a bun at McDonalds in France.

 

Login or register to post comments by CrashisOptimistic
on Thu, 10/14/2010 – 12:01
#649680

You guys are not embracing the ramifications and extrapolations.

GDP requires oil consumption.  Repeat that.  GDP requires oil consumption.

In a world of decreasing oil production, SO DOES GDP.  For everyone.  It’s all downhill.

It is that . . . that specific reality . . . which is crushing.  The future is not bright and never will be again.  You guys who think you will organically farm and live locally and swagger about at how YOUR children will be okay are delusional.  Hungry fathers and mothers will rationalize ANYTHING.  10,000 of them streaming out of just a smallish city will overrun you and your Glock, take your food, and then look for more.  Somewhere.  They will do so with no problems sleeping afterwards, because they have to feed their children.

Btw, before you worry about organic farming, make sure you live somewhere that has a water supply that does not arrive in pressurized pipes, because the guys who make those work are going to starve, and then the pipes won’t work.

7 billion people on the planet.  It will never work without easy oil, and that’s gone forever.

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