Bill Cara’s Blog for Oct 8, 2010 [See post-close report]

October 8, 2010 by Bill Cara Bookmark and Share

Morning Call [8:53am ET] If the equity market rally is over, as many traders believe after observing yesterday’s action in precious metals and to a lesser extent the oil services and banks, and that’s a big ‘if’ because of the preparedness of G-20 central banks to collectively work to stave deflation as real property debt is written down to market and to ensure a jobs-based global economic recovery, then I suspect the action will be choppy on the downside rather than a quick and dirty plunge in securities prices.

Here come the 1970’s again.

Today the market reaction to the US Jobs Report for September will control the morning’s action. Geoff will comment further, but the weak numbers may be positive for precious metals and energy. The key here is to watch the action of the Euro today and for the next week or so. The Euro is looking toppy.

What I’m thinking now is that traders will be playing the short side for the foreseeable future as prices ratchet down slowly, mostly on account of lower PE multiples being applied as a counter to broad weakening of international currencies and the ensuing trade wars, where the latter will dampen corporate gross profit margins.

On a relative basis, the next five months ought to be net positive for gold and silver, while oil prices, which also ought to lift, will need the added pump of stronger economic data to move the price significantly higher, and that may take a while.

If 4Q2010 and 1H2011 does in fact mirror the mid to late 1970’s, then we can expect to see range-bound markets with choppy action. Trend followers will need to shorten the look-back periods for their indicators. Stock selection will also come back into vogue. But the fact we are now in a currency war no matter what the G-20 leaders say, we should all turn to precious metals, buying every dip.

Have a good day.

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[10:20am ET] Today, monthly employment data was released:

– Nonfarm Payrolls came in at -94K with expectations of unchanged.

– Average work week was reported at 34.2, hitting expectations with no change from last month.

– Hourly earnings were reported at 0.0% with expectations of 0.2%.

– Unemployment rate was reported at 9.6% with expectations of 9.7%.

This data points to continued Quantitative Easing or at least no thoughts of taking it off the table.

Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke before the Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council. Here is part of what he said:

“Let me return to the issue of longer-term fiscal sustainability. As I have discussed, projections by the CBO and others show future budget deficits and debts rising indefinitely, and at increasing rates. To be sure, projections are to some degree only hypothetical exercises. Almost by definition, unsustainable trajectories of deficits and debts will never actually transpire, because creditors would never be willing to lend to a country in which the fiscal debt relative to the national income is rising without limit. Herbert Stein, a wise economist, once said, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

One way or the other, fiscal adjustments sufficient to stabilize the federal budget will certainly occur at some point. The only real question is whether these adjustments will take place through a careful and deliberative process that weighs priorities and gives people plenty of time to adjust to changes in government programs or tax policies, or whether the needed fiscal adjustments will be a rapid and painful response to a looming or actual fiscal crisis.”

A possible “rapid and painful response”? Sounds like Helicopter Ben is destined to take flight soon.

Have a great trading day!

– Geoff

CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report

Precious metals (SLV+3.45%; GLD+1.02%) quickly shrugged off yesterday’s decline as investors viewed any decline as an opportunity to build positions in the only sector that makes sense in the long term.

Is it okay to say the weather in Chicago was spectacular, highs in the 80s, and I played hooky in the afternoon, and I haven’t taken a few hours off in many, many months?

Sometimes you need to take a little time off to recharge the batteries – hope everyone can appreciate we need a pause that refreshes.

I got to spend a little quality time with my kids – hard to communicate how blessed I am, and what they mean to me.

At the end of the day Bill, Geoff, and I are trying to educate our readers, hoping we can make a difference in your lives.

Sometimes we nail it, other times we swing and miss.

Always honest, always learning.

Have a great weekend.

– Patrick

Login or register to post comments Bookmark and Share Comments What Qualifies as a Price “Dip” in PMs? Submitted by 4ever (92 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 09:06 #71057

5-10-15-20-25%??

Login or register to post comments The FALL of Recovery Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 09:26 #71060

excerpts from this mornings BLS report:

“The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose by 612,000 over the month to 9.5 million. Over the past 2 months, the number of such workers has increased by 943,000. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.”

“About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in September, up from 2.2 million a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.
They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.”

—–

“Make no mistake: we are headed in the right direction.” – Barack Obama

Login or register to post comments Cara 100 Update Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 09:29 #71062

DIS – price target boosted at Barclays. DIS price target raised to $42 from $36. Valuation call. Maintain Overweight rating.

FCX – price target higher at Barclays to $130 from $120. Despite macro uncertainty throughout the summer, we maintain confident in our long-held copper thesis.

Login or register to post comments Monetary History Submitted by MtnGntx (180 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 09:44 #71064

Another look at the banking system that got us here, cause we must first understand what the rules of the game are before we can realistically and intelligently alter them.

http://tinyurl.com/2749x2p

Happy trading.

Login or register to post comments Alcoa (AA) Submitted by BillySundance (746 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 09:49 #71066

Very nice action in Alcoa – FWIW. I see a lot of money flowing into industrial/commodity related stocks at the moment.

I think if AA can hold on to its gains today, the rest of the market may be playing catch-up for the remainder of the day. We shall see.

Login or register to post comments Rats…………Sinking Ship Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 10:19 #71067

Obama’s National Security Advisor Resigning

http://tinyurl.com/26d8ol7

Login or register to post comments Link to Marc Faber recent highlights Submitted by jack black (830 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 10:48 #71068

cheapy, you asked and the linky is here:
http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/october-…

Login or register to post comments Ag on a tear Submitted by Ross (365 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 11:12 #71069

Almost a double in DGA. Even lumber is up 4%. A rush out of assignants I suppose.

Login or register to post comments October Follow-Thru from September. Sure it Will. Submitted by 4ever (92 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 11:30 #71070

Will stealth QE continue to pump up stocks into the election or have the pumps gone silent? I seem to recall a few shocks in October pasts.

Trying to time this just right(rriigghhtt), short gold(DZZ), Pick up some down side insurance in VXX & TZA. At least until Halloween. I reserve the right to change me mind anytime.

Best of luck to everybody.

Login or register to post comments Re: Ag on a tear Submitted by jack black (830 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 11:34 #71071 (in reply to #71069)

Weird, commodities are going up vertically, yet dollar more or less flat near the multi-month low.

Login or register to post comments Assignants Submitted by westcoaster (297 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 11:37 #71072

Ross,
Took a moment to look up that one.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assignat
We think we have it tough now. We ain’t seen nuttin yet.

Login or register to post comments correction in bullion is over ? Submitted by jock (591 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 11:40 #71073

LOL – one day down hard, today SLV’s almost completely recovered, GLD right behind. Maybe Uncle BEN bought them both this morning !

Login or register to post comments Cara 100 Update (Final) Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 12:06 #71074

ADBE – Upgraded to Buy @ Standpoint.

Login or register to post comments Re: correction in bullion is over ? Submitted by jack black (830 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 12:19 #71075 (in reply to #71073)

Not so fast, it could be easily head fake. I will keep my cash, thank you.

Login or register to post comments Renmimbi = CYB Submitted by Dr. Strangelove (770 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 12:28 #71076

Well, moving my ‘cash’ in my trading accounts to CYB is working well so far: Up 2% after averaging in from June 23, 2010. Compare that to a 30-year U.S. treasury. It’s not volatile and the World Bank, ECU, IMF, UN, and all the big central bankers, the U.S. Fed in particular, Geitner, et al., are begging the Chinese to let it rise for the sake of humanity ….

Cheers.

Login or register to post comments feels like Submitted by baz22 (1408 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 12:30 #71077

the rug will be pulled out from underneath next week.. like the eye of a hurricane, don’t want to stand up against the follow-thru… glta

Login or register to post comments Foreclosure mess might actually help non foreclosure sales Submitted by NYUGrad (2872 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 12:32 #71078

I plan to list my two rental props in Raleigh NC without an agent so I can minimize cash outlay.

And if there are now buyers who were in contract for a foreclosure and are delayed in limbo, i am thinking they might want to buy a house that is not a foreclosure/short sale. After all they need a place to live, and i am sure they already sold something else or didn’t renew their rental lease, expecting closure.

Let’s hope.

Login or register to post comments Re: feels like Submitted by goldbug58 (128 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 12:35 #71079 (in reply to #71077)

Rationale? I’m just asking. Looked like $SPX 60-minute would break lower out of tighter BB’s today, instead we reversed to the upside. Why do you anticipate this weakness next week?

Login or register to post comments Re: feels like Submitted by baz22 (1408 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 13:57 #71080 (in reply to #71079)

for those jumping on the train now…!.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkBArqISsJo&feature…

Login or register to post comments Re: correction in bullion is over ? Submitted by jack black (830 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 14:07 #71081 (in reply to #71075)

OK, I’m putting money where my mouth is. Reloaded puts on SLW again. So, far I had good luck with those puts a few times already (short term trade only).

Login or register to post comments Re: Renmimbi = CYB Submitted by Illini (449 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 14:49 #71082 (in reply to #71076)

I’m up 1.4% in just 3 weeks. Thanks for bringing it to my renewed attention last month. I had been in it before but it was going nowhere so I got out. I don’t see why Geitner keeps complaining about the Chinese. Clearly there occurred a change in their policy in early Sep. I guess he wants the pressure to stay on.

Login or register to post comments Cotton Submitted by BillySundance (746 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 14:59 #71083

I was talking to a friend of mine who owns a screen printing business. He fulfills order for t-shirts and other items from large corporate customers.

He was telling me that whereas a few years ago you could make large orders for cotton t-shirts and have pallets delivered in a couple weeks, cotton prices have been soaring and that is no longer the case. Orders must be made many months in advance now.

He says some of his large corporate customers have actually been stockpiling cotton shirts in wherehouses and sending them to him to fulfill orders (as opposed to ordering them on short notice).

Interesting to hear about the markets for non-energy commodities.

Login or register to post comments BofA Halts All Foreclosure Sales Submitted by NYUGrad (2872 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:01 #71084

Bank of America Corp. said it is placing a moratorium on all foreclosure sales across the U.S., amid political pressure on U.S. banks to examine foreclosure-documentation problems.

http://bit.ly/c1qIPg

Login or register to post comments Re: Renmimbi = CYB Submitted by Dr. Strangelove (770 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:08 #71085 (in reply to #71082)

Bernanke decribes how Quantitative Easing works with a visual aid.

http://tinyurl.com/2aakymf

Cheers.

Login or register to post comments Got stopped from TZA Submitted by jack black (830 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:16 #71086

UUP, DZZ and short SLW still hang above stops.

Login or register to post comments DZZ as smart money and GLD as dumb money? Submitted by jack black (830 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:32 #71087

I noticed that everytime DZZ volume spike, gold also spikes and forms a tradeable top. Same with GLD, LOL!

Login or register to post comments Buying some VXX Submitted by jet8400 (71 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:37 #71088

To remain long here is incredibly risky and dependant on the FOMC meeting Tuesday. I think we see at least a pause in QE. To keep going with the experiment would be down right reckless. China isn’t budging on the yen and I think we’ll see if they want to continue down that road after a little equity implosion. Let the market come down a little and the month your contracts strike, boom another rally. Probably just like from April to Sept 1st. Best of luck.

Login or register to post comments Mortgage Monster Submitted by MtnGntx (180 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:43 #71089

SEC Failure to Regulate MBS Resulted in “Interconnected Ponzi Scheme with Various Types of Concurrent Fraud”

http://tinyurl.com/2fx5lhl

FORECLOSUREGATE AND OBAMA’S ‘POCKET VETO

http://tinyurl.com/277gy5b

Login or register to post comments TZA/VXX? Actually, they look good here. Opening @ 25.53/16.43 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:48 #71090

At some point, the short squeeze ends. I have no idea if it ends here, but I think these ETFs are due for a little upside.

Login or register to post comments Re: Mortgage Monster Submitted by MtnGntx (180 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:51 #71091 (in reply to #71089)

…oops, missed this one.

Did Congress try to Legalize Foreclosure Fraud?
http://tinyurl.com/33puv3z

Can’t leave this one out…hehe….

I can feel temperatures rising.

Login or register to post comments Gold vs GLD Submitted by kim. (3 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:54 #71092

http://reflight.blogspot.com/2010/07/all-that-glit…

Login or register to post comments Re: TZA/VXX? Actually, they look good here. Opening @ … Submitted by goldbug58 (128 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 16:12 #71093 (in reply to #71090)

Think you meant 15.43 on VXX, I’m in agreement with you, and I prefer being in agreement with you. Held off on TZA though; SPXU, EUO, and UUP were others I am watching; no positions in any of them.

Login or register to post comments CBO THUGS Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 17:25 #71094

ALOHA!!

From CTA Trading Desk Morning Report by Geoff:

“Let me return to the issue of longer-term fiscal sustainability. As I have discussed, projections by the CBO and others show future budget deficits and debts rising indefinitely, and at increasing rates. To be sure, projections are to some degree only hypothetical exercises. Almost by definition, unsustainable trajectories of deficits and debts will never actually transpire, because creditors would never be willing to lend to a country in which the fiscal debt relative to the national income is rising without limit. Herbert Stein, a wise economist, once said, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

“If something cannot go on forever …” The short version is IT WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN’T!

To rely on the CBO(Congressional Budget Office) is like having Nancy Pelosi as your financial planner! The CBO is and always has been a mouthpiece for the US Congress, whereby if Congress does not like any of the numbers the CBO puts out they just call up and have them revised. I have never taken CBO numbers as gospel. I much prefer the GAO numbers.

” … because creditors would never be willing to lend to a country in which the fiscal debt relative to the national income is rising without limit.”

Hello … Earth to Ben???? What exactly is the US PUBLIC DEBT in relation to the Congressional DEBT CEILING? Obama just raised this supposed “ceiling” over $1TRIL this year. When it gets to its current limit what do you think Congress will do Ben? The DEBT CEILING has been rising since 1940 when FDR created it, 70 years of rising debt. The “debt ceiling” is laughable at best! What choice does fiat money have but to be lent, especially to the country that holds the Reserve Currency? Can debt ever truly be paid back or even idle? Someone there at that meeting should have asked Ben when the last time the US Treasury had no debt and how that was accomplished. It was accomplished without a central bank for starters. I mean what exactly does anyone expect to happen when private banks control our money? Its like going to a Harley-Davidson dealer and demanding they sell you a Toyota Prius! Its not going to happen … Banks only objective by their very nature is to promote and encourage debt and long term indebtedness, especially when they own the “money monopoly”. Don’t expect a banker to resolve long term debt issues since it is their bread and butter to make sure long term debt expands not contracts. IT WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN’T …

Login or register to post comments Re: Mortgage Monster Submitted by Luggie (228 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 16:20 #71095 (in reply to #71091)

Hi Mtn – “Assertions that somehow MERS creates a defect in the mortgage or deed of trust are not supported by the facts”. Congress dealt with this issue, but of course the regime rejects the will of Congress and decides it plays to the masses (and its buddies in the trial lawyers association) as the regime heads to its demise on 11/2. Happy Trading

Login or register to post comments Mortgage-Title Fraud: A National Catastrophe Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 16:21 #71096

““Defective documentation has created millions of blighted titles that will plague the nation for the next decade,”

“For any and every U.S. residential property which has a mortgage that has come within reach of the large U.S. banks over (at least) the last four years, it now has a title which cannot be relied upon by any potential buyer.”

http://tinyurl.com/2drgymx

——-

I highly recommend that everyone read this important article.

Login or register to post comments ‘Hyperinflation’ vs. Just Plain ‘Bad’ Inflation Submitted by normzyx (67 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 16:23 #71097

If we think that hyperinflation is simply inflation on steroids— inflation-plus— inflation with balls— then it would seem to be the case that, in our current deflationary economic environment, hyperinflation is not simply a long way off, but flat-out ridiculous. But hyperinflation is not an extension or amplification of inflation. Inflation and hyperinflation are two very distinct animals. They look the same— because in both cases, the currency loses its purchasing power— but they are not the same.

Inflation is when the economy overheats: It’s when an economy’s consumables (labor and commodities) are so in-demand because of economic growth, coupled with an expansionist credit environment, that the consumables rise in price (because of ‘excessive’ demand and readily available— easy— ‘money’). This forces all goods and services to rise in price as well, so that producers can keep up with costs. It is essentially a demand-driven phenomena.

Hyperinflation is the loss of faith in the currency. Prices rise in a hyperinflationary environment just as in an inflationary environment, but they rise not because people want more “stuff”, but because people are trying to get rid of the currency— they just want less of the currency: So they will pay anything for a lasting good which is not the currency.

We can see from this definition, that the transition to hyperinflation can be very abrupt— and can easily follow on the heels of a deflation as the monetary authorities flood the economy with a seemingly endless stream of ‘money’ in a vain attempt to end the deflation.

[ Normxxx Here:  With a tip of the hat for this explanation to Gonzalo Lira .  ] Login or register to post comments How is it wrong to stop the Submitted by ebelog (51 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 16:35 #71098

How is it wrong to stop the illegal foreclosure of homes when the banks are unable to produce a title? Its good Obama vetoed this piece of crap bill and look now all the foreclosures by BAC are being stopped. That is exactly the right call. The Banksters are scared. That is good right, stop with the regime change crap, you guys are courting republicans who got us into this friggin disaster (admittedly with the help of some corpratist Dems but If you think the repubs are going to do jack to their masters you are seriously deluded.

Login or register to post comments The BULL S—T RALLY! Submitted by bobbyo (583 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 20:06 #71099

While the markets keep going up. You are going to be saying this is Bull s—. The trend is up. Don’t fight the tape!
Bob

Login or register to post comments Re: How is it wrong to stop the Submitted by davefairtex (2293 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 16:48 #71100 (in reply to #71098)

ebelog – totally agree with your comment about the Obama veto.

My guess is, once the banks see they cannot make their illegal operations (perjury factories) into legal ones, they’ll start looking at other options. Those options include actually talking with delinquent homeowners, encouraging short sales with potential relief on deficiency judgements, offering re-financing with principal writedowns, more flexibility on forgiving penalties, and other incentives to avoid the foreclosure path altogether. If a homeowner voluntarily relinquishes title to the servicer, presumably this problem goes away. Yes?

I don’t think this is a bad thing, ESPECIALLY since these SAME BANKS were egregiously complicit in perpetrating this whole fraud in the first place.

Login or register to post comments Re: How is it wrong to stop the Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 16:49 #71101 (in reply to #71098)

ebelog,

I’m also pleased that Obama vetoed this bill. I rarely agree with him, but he’s right in this case.

Republicrats and Demopublicans are both worthless scum. They should be tried and punished for their crimes against We The People.

Login or register to post comments Re: Mortgage Monster Submitted by MtnGntx (180 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 16:49 #71102 (in reply to #71095)

..hehe… someone needs a refresher on 1000 years of contract law…hehe.

And when was the last time that “congress dealt with (any) issue.”

Are there any disclosures you want to make in this assertion?

..hehe…

Login or register to post comments Question About RUSSELL 2000 INDEX Submitted by analyst65 (215 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 16:57 #71103

If TNA and TZA should be performing 3X times the performance of the RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (^RUT) then why do we see the performance of the index for the day only 1.41% which is (0.47% times 3 = 1.41%) while both TNA and TZA were both up 3.80% for TNA and donw 3.90% for TZA ???

Thanks in advance..

Login or register to post comments What is going on now is the Submitted by ebelog (51 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 16:54 #71104

What is going on now is the banks and their buddies in Saudi Arabia, China, UAE (think Hedge funds) are spending 100 million dollars this month alone via the chamber of commerce to influece our elections via the ridiculous citizens united Ruling. These countries now see the opening to push the people they want (republicans are the only beneficiaries of this largess) in order to get things they want. Its one thing to has scumbag lobbyists advocate for AMERICANS who happen to have a different opinion but since the ruling FOREIGNERS who are none to friendly to us will be dictating the terms of our countries surrender without ever firing a shot. Think about that when you vote for teabaggers and assorted republicans. Rant off

Login or register to post comments From The COTS Timer Submitted by normzyx (67 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 16:59 #71105

From The COTS Timer

Gold Gone, S&P 500 Smart Money Slams on Brakes

The “smart money” commercial traders continue their sixth consecutive week of reducing their net position in S&P 500 futures and options, according to today’s Commitments of Traders report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Their net positioning is now in its third week of being more than two standard deviations below average – an indicator of super-bearishness on their part.

My signal for the S&P 500 went to bearish last week, based on the commercial positioning and the contrarian bullishness of the wrong-way small trader crowd. The signal was wrong last week, but the COT data shows no signs of turning around for either group of traders. The setup will remain bearish for at least the next three weeks.

See my latest signals table for an update based on today’s COT data for this and other markets. Some other highlights:

– U.S. financials: Fourth week in cash this week.

– Crude oil: Also in cash, with a bearish signal kicking in on the open the week of Oct. 18.

– Gold: This setup goes to cash on the coming week’s open of trading after six weeks bullish. Nice run, but the wrong-way large speculators have gotten excessively bullish.

– Nikkei: A fifth week bearish this week, with a one-week bullish signal to kick in Nov. 15, followed by cash on Nov. 22.

– Natural gas: Both groups of traders have gone bullish, but their trade delays mean the setup remains in cash. We’ll see what happens next week.

– 30-year Treasury bond: This setup goes bullish on the coming week’s open of trading (meaning it expects the yield to fall).

Login or register to post comments MnGnTx how does not producing Submitted by ebelog (51 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 17:00 #71106

MnGnTx how does not producing the title (showing that you have an enforceable Lien)make what the banks wanted right (ie. Having someone give an affidavit that the lien and Title exist). You are trampling on the rights of the owner of the property and adversely possesing something that you have no proof is yours? This has happened countless times already where banks possesed a home that was NOT THEIRS. I said nothing about the congress, I said it was good the Obama vetoed this crap bill. You want to fix this country, get the friggin money out of elections, cap everyone at a set amount and let the IDEAS win the debate, Not who can yell louder and Lie more furiously.

Login or register to post comments Re: Question About RUSSELL 2000 INDEX Submitted by BillySundance (746 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 17:03 #71107 (in reply to #71103)

The question is why did IWM go up 1.28% when the index it tracks ^RUT went up only 0.47% ? Quite a discrepancy in the daily performance. I am not sure what the reason is……weird. The 3x products must be tracking performance of the ETF ticker IWM, not ^RUT.

Login or register to post comments Re: Question About RUSSELL 2000 INDEX Submitted by analyst65 (215 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 17:16 #71108 (in reply to #71107)

OK, OK, That’s funny, ha ha ha. Sometime ago someone told me that these ETF’s track the daily performance of Russell 2000 ^RUT, not IWM and perform 3x, but I guess I was wrong, anyway, thanks for the clarification Mr. Funny Man !! 🙂

Login or register to post comments Re: Question About RUSSELL 2000 INDEX Submitted by BillySundance (746 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 17:35 #71110 (in reply to #71108)

Sorry, not trying to be funny – I am not exactly sure why IWM is so far detached from the ^RUT but it looks like for some reason the ^RUT opened this morning with a gap up but IWM didn’t. By the end of the day I think they had about the same performance (+1.27%)but the change %s on yahoo finance are different because of the weird morning gap up that only occured in ^RUT. Maybe it has something to do with different trading hours of the index futures vs. exchange? Or maybe it was just some brief market anomaly.

Login or register to post comments Re: How is it wrong to stop the Submitted by bluesky (60 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 18:25 #71111 (in reply to #71098)

I wonder who has the most leverage on the other?
– the banks who need Obama’s support
– or Obama who needs the banks’ $upport

Login or register to post comments Re: From The COTS Timer Submitted by jack black (830 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 18:35 #71112 (in reply to #71105)

I used to follow him, but his calls are difficult to trade. Bunch of hits and misses. However, my sentiments mirror his exactly.

Login or register to post comments Re: MnGnTx how does not producing Submitted by MtnGntx (180 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 19:03 #71113 (in reply to #71106)

Ebelog, we are in agreement… not sure what was misconstrued, but I did not intend to imply that what Obama did was inappropriate. I am behind him entirely on this one.

First off, let me reiterate that I really do appreciate this blog and each and everyone of you guys. We are all in this together. All of us… no one left behind. And this is a great venue (thanks Bill) for a diverse, intelligent, capable, concerned group individuals to come together to discuss what is going on in the world… most specifically concerning the economy and trading. I don’t even trade, so i dont have much to offer in this regard. I sat for the series C a few lifetimes ago, but I have never had enough money to trade personally (my life decisions and I own them). I don’t even own a house, so have no mortgage either. I come to learn about what is going on in the hearts and minds of my brothers and sisters around the world. I come to interact with you guys.

When I reference 1000 years of contract law I am referring to the fact that there exists a small handful of components to any contract in common law. These include an exchange of value and full disclosure.

First, exchange of value: How can any bank, which by statute/code cannot loan their own credit, offer a home buyer value? All of the value has always been in the hands of the home buyer. It is explicitly the home buyer’s signature that creates the “money” that the bank then “loans” back to him/her. The banks need the buyer to provide the funds, not the other way around. There has not been an exchange of value between the bank and loan recipient. Arguably, the loan recipient receives value for the promissory note… they get a house. The home seller receives value too… they get cash for turning over the house. But the bank is and remains a third party interloper for the exchange. They have no sweat in the game, so to speak. They may facilitate the transaction, but isn’t this what all those origination and broker’s fees are supposed to address. Since it is the signature on the promissory note that creates credit from nothing, the bank has offered nothing of intrinsic value in the exchange. So there is NO viable lawful contract to be had here at all between the bank and they buyer.

The banks own books will validate this assertion. If the homeowner were to demand an affidavit from the bank demonstrating exactly where the bank inserted its own credit… its own monies, if you will… they couldn’t produce such proof. Not only could they not produce this because it didnt happen, but they couldnt produce evidence to this effect because banks are prohibited from doing so by legal dictates. Should a claim be made in the event of buyer default, to be in compliance with 1000 years of common law contract practice, the banks books must not only prove that they have given something of their own relative value in the transaction but that they also have never received compensation for their part in the exchange. The banks hypothecate the promissory note for at least 10 times its nominal value immediately upon receiving your signature. How can this possibly ever, ever, show up as a loss on their books. Buyers could default on their loans, and then rob the bank for an additional amount of 9 times the nominal value of the original promissory note and the banks could still not show a “loss” on their books… THEY NEVER HAD ANY SKIN IN THE GAME.

Now it gets really fun… cause now-a-days the banks usually sell the buyers promissory note to a third party within 3 to 5 days of its origination… How can you show a loss for something that you have just sold for face value to someone else? There are other issues too, like the fact that corporations can only contract with corporations… human beings cannot legally contract with corporations. Human beings can only contract with human beings. “You” were turned into a corporation through your birth certificate bond… yes it is a bond and it is traded for value as a bond in international commerce and it is worth millions if not billions of digital money… And, yes it represents the establishment of a corporate trust for reasons of esoteric commerce… No, it is not technically or in actuality, “YOU” at all, even though you will be held liable as surety for it in our equity courts. This, by the way, brings up the full disclosure component of a lawful contract… Did the banks tell you that the only way they could legally do business with you was if you agreed to be surety for your “corporate token?” Did the banks disclose that your signature originated all of the funds involved in your home purchase? Did they tell you they were going to hypothecate the promissory note attached to your loan agreement for a boatload more than its nominal value? Were you party to this business arrangement? Did the banks tell you they were going to sell your note when you bought your house and therefore would not be holding it at all during the 30 years they would hammer you for principal and interest? I don’t care what the fine print says, if the party to a contract is NOT FULLY INFORMED OF all pertinent aspects of the contractural agreement into which he/she is entering… if this system was not clearly explained to him by legal representatives of the bank… and it wasn’t, cause most of the button pushers at the bank have no clue about any of this either… then the disclosure clause required in any common law contract was not fulfilled… period….

So what is the bank doing charging the buyer principal plus interest on something it never had to loan in the first place? The value exchanged was the home buyers signature for the house. The bank is an interloper. And no, there is no intrinsic value in their magic ability to turn your signature into all of this money. The home buyer could just as easily accomplish this slight of hand without the hassle and complications of dealing with the bank and without the complications and hassles of paying interest, except for the fact that our government has been so kind as abdicate its constitutionally enumerated and mandated monetary responsibilities in order to set up this wonderful arrangement with the banks on our behalf… so nice of the gubmint to do this….

Oh, wait a minute…. WE ARE THE GOVERNMENT. The government derives ALL of its authority… every single iota…. from we the people. We breath life into this institution by any and all standards of measurement. That when WE get wise and tired of this game, then WE will change it.

I am not the most eloquent, or the most articulate, or the most educated in these matters… but I hope the above dissertation provides a little clarity and perspective to my comments.

Sincerely

Login or register to post comments Re: Link to Marc Faber recent highlights Submitted by cheapy (382 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 20:24 #71114 (in reply to #71068)

thanks for the link, Jack 🙂

Login or register to post comments So there is NO viable lawful contract Submitted by Luggie (228 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 20:40 #71115

Hi MTN – Do you think MTN will do well now with winter coming on? I have owned it and done well there over the years – even skied at some of the areas a time or two. Bye the bye – title never vests to a bank, the borrower gets that part under the rule of LAW, with the originator or its assignee of record secured by a deed of trust recorded in the county/parish/borrough/town courthouse. Fannie with other parties (read government minions) developed MERS to avoid the sort of nonsense that will now take place. The originator or assignee (read a delegated lawyer (who WE will end up renumerating) for Slice & Dice,Inc.(c)) will have to go to the assignment of record for the deed of trust with extensive billed lawyer hours and deal with the fact some people don’t make mortgage payments. OH – and another bye the bye thing – the government asked them to forestall these actions agreed to under the rule of LAW for how many months now? I suppose this is all in the political calculus of the powers that be. All this reminds me of my investment in KRY. Happy Trading

Login or register to post comments Looking For A Correction In Gold? Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 20:53 #71116

“I’ve got news for you, when gold and silver go up, that IS the correction!”

Daniel lays it out for the masses in his new NIA video:

http://tinyurl.com/c2m34v

Login or register to post comments tobyt Submitted by baz22 (1408 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 21:04 #71117

hope things are going well… today, I started ‘ clsn ‘ as a buy and add. Sold imgn and mvis into first moments strength ( may be kicking myself over the ‘ imgn ‘ sell, but made very good % profit, and can always buy again ).. increased stake in ‘ astm ‘ by another 20 %.. good trades to you, baz.

Login or register to post comments Happy Canadian Thanksgiving to… Submitted by Jack Senett (61 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 21:32 #71118

… everyone reading this blog, anywhere in the world. It’s a time to count blessings, eat well, enjoy family, and savour life. Warm Thanksgiving greetings to all from “The True North Strong and Free”.

Login or register to post comments Re: Happy Canadian Thanksgiving to… Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 21:50 #71119 (in reply to #71118)

You’ve been a blessing to us, Jack. Warm greetings back atcha.

Regards,
BH

Login or register to post comments Re: Happy Canadian Thanksgiving to… Submitted by BOB 47 (90 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 22:15 #71120 (in reply to #71118)

Jack , Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family . Thank You for all you do for us . Bob .

Login or register to post comments Patrick at the Close Submitted by Dr. Strangelove (770 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 22:16 #71121

I for one have found your post-close reports to be spot on and informative, especially this week. You bring focus to the blur of daily happenings. Thank you.

Cheers.

Login or register to post comments Re: Mortgage-Title Fraud: A National Catastrophe Submitted by BOB 47 (90 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 22:52 #71122 (in reply to #71096)

Bill , I read Mortgage-Title Fraud: A National Catastrophe http://seekingalpha.com/article/229048-mortgage-ti… http://tinyurl.com/25zwy2l . This INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL FAILURE , is an onion with so far endless skins to be unpeeled . What with MERS and the Federal Reserve , two private companies that seem to have a lot to do with the construction of THE ONION . Apparently to undo this layer of the onion , MERS must be dismantled and then we have to wait ten years , during which we clean up the housing debacle. This would indicate a Depression of more than ten years in length . This should have serious implications on stocks . Building PRISONS TO CONTAIN ALL THE PEOPLE WHO SO RIGHTLY EARNED ADMISSION , could stimulate the economy . The problem and the solution MADE IN AMERICA . Bob

Login or register to post comments More than MERS…Whalen Submitted by gforce (358 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 22:57 #71123

http://www.businessinsider.com/chris-whalens-forec…

Login or register to post comments Employment in pictures Submitted by gforce (358 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 23:04 #71124

http://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-charts…

Login or register to post comments Nice to know Submitted by gforce (358 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 23:21 #71125

http://www.paulvaneeden.com/Actual.Money.Supply

Login or register to post comments I just call them pimps Submitted by gforce (358 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 23:25 #71126

http://goldchat.blogspot.com/2010/10/prof-keen-com…

Login or register to post comments Mish on Todays Job # s Submitted by gforce (358 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 23:38 #71127

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/10…

Login or register to post comments How about helping to bring awareness! Submitted by gforce (358 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 00:19 #71128

Register here; it is worth the effort:

http://changethis.com/proposal/show/101

You will have to register, its free, sign in and vote to have people contribute to the manifesto. This is an interesting forum newly discovered by me and has potential. I want to add positive and not negative to the life force and hope you do also…thanks in advance if you do.

Login or register to post comments Re: How about helping to bring awareness! Submitted by Ross (365 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 00:59 #71129 (in reply to #71128)

A sign of the times. Sugared kakaschka with a cherry on top.

Login or register to post comments the muni crisis coming? Submitted by DavidV (32 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 01:42 #71130

Here is a good article by Brian Pretti from Financial Sense Online:

http://tinyurl.com/2d5g229

where he suggests that investor’s response to QE will not be that positive if QE is done for some unexpected reason, such as bailing out failing municipalities. He is mentioning a couple of municipal bond funds and is suggesting that a decline in their prices will be an early warning of the muni problem becoming a big issue. Both of those funds have peaked over the past month and one of them started making a clear series of lower highs.

Brian is also suggesting that a pretty big QE will be needed this time around, bigger than QE1. So if we don’t get such a high QE in November, the market may sell off. Or it may sell off in October, so as to make it easier for Bernanke to do a large round of QE.

Login or register to post comments consumer credit Submitted by davefairtex (2293 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 03:21 #71131

This from Thursday:

Consumer Credit – M/M change
* Prior = $-3.6 B
* Consensus = $-4.0 B
* Consensus Range = $-7.5 B to $-2.5 B
* Actual = $-3.3 B

Annually, revolving credit is down 7.2%. Non-revolving credit is up 1.2%. Taken together, these are deflationary; shrinking credit means less money flowing into the consumer sector. Given that consumer credit generally grows from 5-15% per year, a growth in credit of 1.2% is unfortunate, and shrinkage by 7.2% annually is dreadful. Worst year for consumer credit prior to 2009 was 1991, when consumer credit shrank by -1.1%.

The continued shrinkage in consumer credit says there is no recovery – at least not one sponsored by the consumer. If left to their own devices, consumers would still be deflating the supply of money and credit.

Login or register to post comments THE PRIZE Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 06:49 #71132

ALOHA!!

Many times here on the blog we refer to China as an “investment” or a “trade” and we link to “charts” but the reality seems to be something different than what we see and hear on CNN.

From a HK website I follow:

The Prize for China
9th October 2010

From one activist to another, we cannot resist commenting on yesterday’s award of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize to Chinese democracy and human rights campaigner Liu Xiaobo, who is currently serving an 11-year jail term imposed on 25-Dec-2009 for “agitation aimed at subverting state power”. His crime was to be one of the authors of Charter 08, a petition signed by over 350 intellectuals and activists demanding the right to free speech, democracy and an independent judiciary.

China predictably reacted to the award with its usual bellicose rhetoric and censored internet coverage and discussion of the event. Mobile text messages with Liu’s name were reportedly blocked. Such is the success of the Great Firewall of China that many of the 1.3 billion citizens have no idea who Liu Xiaobo is.

In the same week, Premier Wen Jiabao gave an interview to CNN in which he said:

“I believe freedom of speech is indispensable, for any country, a country in the course of development and a country that has become strong. Freedom of speech has been incorporated into the Chinese constitution [Article 35].

I don’t think you know all about China on this point. In China, there are about 400 million Internet users and 800 million mobile phone subscribers. They can access the Internet to express their views, including critical views…

I believe I and all the Chinese people have such a conviction that China will make continuous progress, and the people’s wishes for and needs for democracy and freedom are irresistible. I hope that you will be able to gradually see the continuous progress of China.”

Strong stuff – and spoken for an overseas audience. In mainland China, the interview was blocked by censors, so citizens don’t get to hear their Premier using his constitutional freedom of speech to advocate, well, freedom of speech.

Liu Xiaobo joins an elite of activists among previous Nobel Peace laureates including Nelson Mandela (1993), who went on to be President of South Africa, Lech Walesa (1983), who went on to be President of Poland, and Aung San Suu Kyi (1991), still under house arrest in Burma, who would otherwise have been Prime Minister after the 1990 election which her party won.

Liu’s prize is a wake-up call to the Chinese leadership. China’s huge economic progress since 1979 has not been accompanied by liberalization of human rights, particularly freedoms of speech, the media, debate and information, nor the establishment of an independent judiciary. In our view, these freedoms are a necessary condition for the sustainable future prosperity of China and its citizens. You can only go so far with just lifting people out of poverty. The low-hanging fruit has been picked. After satisfying basic needs and providing modern conveniences, a more affluent society has the luxury of time to wonder why their municipal, provincial and state authorities are so unaccountable and corruptible, and why the state still intervenes so much in their affairs.

In Hong Kong, at least until 2047, we are privileged with all of these freedoms except the right to elect our own leadership. We can debate public policies freely, we can rely on the courts for a fair hearing, and any rare corruption of officials is quickly rooted out. It is only policy-making itself which remains beyond the reach of HK citizens who are denied a ballot box. That in itself leads to social discontent and sub-optimal policy choices, but imagine how much worse it would be without the ability to publicly criticise and debate the policies.

We have a sneaking suspicion that beneath the party-line exterior of Wen Jiabao, there is a reformist in him seeking to break out. His time as a leader expires in Mar-2013, possibly too soon to overcome the hardliners in the politburo, but one of his successors may put his words into action, and bring China into an open-society era. Don’t forget, the Nobel Peace Prize has not always gone to dissidents. In 1993, Nelson Mandela was not the only recipient – he was joined by reformist South African President F.W. de Klerk, who paved the road to the abolition of apartheid, and in 1990, the prize went to reformist Mikhail Gorbachev, President of the Soviet Union, for his role in ending the Cold War and opening up the Soviet Union and the Eastern bloc. The next time a Nobel Peace Prize is awarded to a Chinese citizen, it may go to a leader, not a dissident.END

LINK: http://webb-site.com/articles/nobel2010.asp

Maybe there are some Chinese Caraistas here who can elaborate or add to this report. In our zeal for a more global free market we sometimes forget that China is still Communist in terms of government and military and certain “rights” of the People …

Login or register to post comments Re: consumer credit Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 07:13 #71133 (in reply to #71131)

ALOHA!!

Dave, just for perspective the US Treasury on Thursday, October 7th, just one of the many Thursday’s we have every year, one of 52, created and issued $115.4BIL USD of debt. In fact the US Treasury deposited $1.97BIL USD in tax revenues yet they paid out $4.9BIL in refunds on Thursday. Where did that nearly $3BIL deficit come from? It came from the creation of more debt, more FRN’s added to the money supply, something inflationary not deflationary. So the drop in consumer credit of $3.3BIL is nearly covered just in tax refunds issued to Corporations on Thursday. Lets look at spending here in a minute.

This is why I say the US Treasury is PRICE FIXING 101. They create more debt in one day than consumers can destroy in a month! The US Treasury operates on debt issues in the trillions per year while consumers can only add billions. Just in Unemployment Benefits(one line item) the US Treasury handed out $157BIL USD to US citizens in FY 2010 to spend as they see fit. That is $157BIL USD added to the money supply along with the other $8.4TRIL in marketable US Debt issues for FY 2010.

On Thursday, October 7th, the US Treasury reported net outlays(spending) for that day of over $16BIL USD. If only $1.97BIL came from tax revenues then where did the other $14.BIL+ deficit come from on that day? The US Treasury is highly inflationary, more so than US Consumers and their credit appetite.

When you are standing there in the voting booth in November think about the “representative” you are voting for, because they will be “representing” you and your kid’s future in so many more ways than just healthcare or Iraq. They will be representing your monetary future. They(the US Congress) hold the power to literally render any of your trading profits worthless and they have been exercising that power of currency destruction and taxation without representation for as long as I have been alive.

Now the difference between what you report on US Consumer Credit and what I report on US Treasury Debt is in the issuance and how that credit/debt is dispersed. The US Consumer Credit is used to buy a wide variety of goods and services from food to TVs to cars to guns and vacations. The US Treasury debt in turn is spent on “promises” that go to select crony capitalists like Defense Vendors and Medicare providers like Big Pharma and to select unions that will promote government agendas in such areas as Education and Employment. Much of the expenditure of Big Government is to preserve the power of the US Congress and in turn the ruling class of the banking elite. Where would the banks be without US Treasury bailing them out in 2008 or the Deposit Insurance Fund(FDIC) line item on the US Treasury Statement that amounted to over $40BIL on the last day of FY 2010? The individuals and the corporations who feed directly in the US Treasury debt trough benefit much sooner than the average law abiding US citizen who has played by the fiscal rules of responsibility his or her entire life and never took handouts from GSMs(Government Sponsored Monopoly). You and I who do not take food stamps or unemployment benefits or who are not on any government payroll will not see a dime of this “monopoly money” until we qualify for what is left of Social Security and Medicare in our old age. We are the OPM(pronounce opium) the rest of the World lives off(smokes) … So TRICKLE DOWN ECONOMICS is very much still alive and well. It never did die when Reagan left office and in fact “TRICKLE DOWN” has been in full swing since 1913, way before Reagan was even governor of California, even before BONZO.

Login or register to post comments what is going on now.ebelong Submitted by tobyt (75 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 06:46 #71134

interesting thesis but since 75% of hedge fund $$$ in 2008 went demo and there is a large body of evidence that china pushed lots of $$$ at the clinton admin do not get where the $$$$ you refer to go automatically to republicans???????

Login or register to post comments Tavakoli & The Fraud Submitted by Johnny (836 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 07:55 #71135

http://tinyurl.com/2anmgkk
If we are ‘The Choir” this article is singing to us.

excerpt from Barron’s on original Washington Post article by Ezra Klein:
Janet Tavakoli: Resolution Trust Needed to Clean Up Mortgage Mess
Tavakoli: “This is the biggest fraud in the history of the capital markets. And it’s not something that happened last week. It happened when these loans were originated, in some cases years ago.”

Lots of mortgages can’t be saved, Tavakoli believes, and the solution for the financial markets, and the economy, is to put together something like the Resolution Trust Corporation, which cleaned up the S&Ls in the late ’80s. That will write the final chapter in the recovery from the financial crisis, she suggests.
J

Login or register to post comments Re: THE PRIZE Submitted by caonima (1 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 08:14 #71136 (in reply to #71132)

Hmmm…

if you have experience as a mainlander of talking to HongKongers, you will get the sense that they always look down on mainlanders. Ironically or Pathetically, all of profitable businesses in HongKong have been monopolized by those wealthy families. This situation happened even before HongKong is handled over to China.
I always want to ask Hongkongers at this date if without mainland China tourists, HongKong is a dead city.

Why don’t they point the fingers to mainland at the same time looking at themselves. no matter Communism or capitalism or Socialism, they are the same, as long as human nature exists.

otherwise who can answer me this question, why US has developed into current situation? Is that supposedly a check-balance?

Login or register to post comments Re: Looking For A Correction In Gold? Submitted by Grym (2586 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 08:26 #71137 (in reply to #71116)

BH,

I agree. Recently I tried to explain to a friend who has “no interest in gold” and to whom just because he “can still get a dollars worth of whatever he needs” that the value of gold is still a benchmark against which currencies are measured. I got nowhere.

People who have not been hit by job loss, have no need to sell their home, who are still receiving a pension monthly along with Social Security see this recession as little different than any other.

I can’t remember a time when so many variables — currency fluctuation, POMO, regulation and accounting practices, info overload — all on a global scale were in play and constantly shifting. And at warp speed. We seem to need to limit our thinking to “either/or” in defense of our sanity while the world is going crazy all around us.

Perception is everything. This is why government diversion and spin are so dangerous.

Still, like everything else, that doesn’t mean the price in dollars cannot pull back after a long run-up.

Login or register to post comments Re: Looking For A Correction In Gold? Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 09:05 #71138 (in reply to #71137)

Grym,

I hope we do see a pullback in gold prices. I’d love to buy more.

IMHO, these guys at the NIA are true Patriots. They never ask for money or donations, yet continue to spread the truth, as they see it, in an effort to help the average joe. Kind of like Bill Cara at a different level.

Their videos may seem elementary compared with the level of financial banter on sites like this one, but the average joe doesn’t read Bill Cara or John Hussman and has probably never heard of the the Consumer Metrics Institute.

I’m looking forward to the NIA’s next feature length video on US Societal Collapse, due out in a few weeks.

Have a great weekend, my friend.

Regards,
BH

Login or register to post comments Saturday Morning Coffee: The Other Side of the Trade Submitted by Ron Sen (575 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 09:32 #71139

http://tinyurl.com/2w2we8n

Salesforce.com
Secular interest rate trends.
Guys really worth reading.

Login or register to post comments Re: So there is NO viable lawful contract Submitted by MtnGntx (180 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 09:42 #71140 (in reply to #71115)

Hey luggie,

Again, this is not my forte, and I would much prefer a legal expert address your questions and concerns, but I don’t have one in my pocket. So, I see it as my duty to try as best I can to muddle through.

We have both legal and lawful contracts that are “LAW-FULL.” And we can “LAW-FULLY” have lawful contracts that are not necessarily legal. But a contract that is legal and unlawful, cannot “LAW-FULLY” exist. “LAW-FULL” supercedes legal when there is a conflict…. Lawful pertains to MAXIMS of law… the gravity, apple thing… as well as to the over-riding unalienable rights bestowed upon, and fundamental actions demanded of a sovereign being (in this case a human-being) by his CREATOR; rights bestowed including the right not to be killed, and actions demanded such as thou shalt not kill.

Legal grows forth from the “LAW-FULL” sovereign. Legal has no motion in this world without that motion bestowed upon it by the WILL of the sovereign. Legal is the creation of the sovereign within the context of a society within which that sovereign has freely consented to live. Legal is a social construct, not a physical law in our perceived reality like gravity, but rather something that grows from the IDEATION of the sovereign. How could anything legal survive without the motion bestowed upon it by the minds and wills of those whom created it? It is, by definition, an entirely public construct. Unlike a MAXIM of law that does not depend upon a sovereign’s own ideation, the legal construct continues or discontinues at the whim of social consent.

So, in reply to what I suppose is your statement: there is NO viable lawful contract, (i.e. “LAW-FULL”), I will have to politely disagree and suggest that you misunderstand my interpretation.

I googled legal vs lawful and the following link was at the top. It does a pretty good job at comparing and contrasting the differences between the two, as well as providing legal references for findings, based on actual court cases, which help define these distinctions:

http://tinyurl.com/2cnhv3p

For those budding neuro-linquistic programmers out there, I would like to note that if Luggie was a NLP practitioner hired by, say the pentagon or maybe the state of Israel… (both entities are on record as hiring and training thousands of bloggers and charging them to go forth into the virtual diaspora for the purpose of infiltrating and influencing blogspace opinion on sensitive public matters)… he might have artfully done a couple of things in responding to me in hopes of diminishing the message within my comments.

First, he might have chosen not to respond to me directly, like by starting a new thread of his own creation rather than linking to my original comment. This, in a very real way, would psychically disassociate himself from any inconvenient truths that I may have stated with which he and his associates would rather not be connected.

He might then title this new thread with something that seems, to the casual and untrained observer, patently ridiculous. In the body of his comment, he could then point out the obvious flaw in his title, and in this manner attempt to garner authoritative credibility from the reader for his position.

Next, in addressing me, he would do everything he could to diminish, change, or exert superseding authority over my virtual person. I mentioned that he might start his own thread to address me so as not to appear subservient in any way. But he could also change my moniker in some small way as a subtle means of exerting “control” or authority over my identity. He may even bolster this attempt by redirecting my moniker to symbolize something that is entirely of his own identity. Or he might associate the moniker with some symbol that the reader could “own” to further diminish my personal sovereignty in their eyes. In this way, anybody can “own” me. He might even specifically imply that he has “owned” me in the past and flippantly or dismissively “moved beyond” this ownership in a “been there, done that” sort of way.

He would have a purpose in responding to me, of course. And he may even feel some desperation in his contractural compulsion to respond, but he would begin his comments in a manner so as to misdirect or disguise this over-riding mandate… He must not seem emotionally involved or personally invested in the response. To achieve this, he could relate a casual anecdote about himself. This would down-play the importance or relevance of his compelled response. It would also leave the impression of general disinterest or boredom over the salient point, as if it were so obvious as to be a waste of his time to mention it at all, and certainly not worthy of mentioning right off the bat.

His point itself would be contextually accurate and might point out some perceived flaw in my comments, but which would not address the jurisdiction of that context. This would be kinda like throwing out the entire Constitution because of a misspelled word somewhere in the document. He wouldn’t address the over-riding message, but find some superfluous flaw within it in order to discredit my knowledge or expertise.

Additionally, he would utilize subtle terms throughout that serve all of the esoteric or covert purposes and intents I have enumerated. For instance, he might incorporate a term like bye-bye as a subtle means of dismissing me or dismissing what I have presented. He could even repeat this term to high-light this dismissive intention or tone.

I could continue, and I know all of this stuff is juvenile, but it does represent a rudimentary form of “sorcery” that has been recognized as effective. Not only recognized, but developed, refined, and implemented pervasively within our society. So much so, that most of us utilize and are influence by these techniques in our daily interactions without conscious awareness… just as Luggie has demonstrated.

Thanks for the demonstration Luggie.

Sincerely

Login or register to post comments Jim Grant Talks QE Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 09:55 #71141

James Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, and Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc., talk about the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, the labor market and the dollar in a video from Bloomberg TV:

http://finance.yahoo.com/video#video=22349616

Login or register to post comments Re: THE PRIZE Submitted by gforce (358 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 14:07 #71142 (in reply to #71132)

I admire your(Kaimu) zeal for the truth in all its poetry and angst.

Also the free flowing ideas(blog) and interpretations of such presented daily.

Login or register to post comments Re: So there is NO viable lawful contract Submitted by davefairtex (2293 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 13:09 #71143 (in reply to #71140)

So, MtnGntx, I appreciate your position on loan-making and contract law and value exchanged, and it makes some amount of sense. And creating money from nothing and collecting interest on it, sure its the banker’s scam, and one I’m not a fan of. But at the risk of being called an unwitting dupe of the Israelis – or the Pentagon I might suggest you lost me with your response.

Luggie is most probably a mortgage guy. He closely watches interest rates, has investments in the market, would prefer to be a buy and hold investor, and is generally a conservative republican/business guy. Of course he won’t like what you have to say. Suggesting (coyly) that he’s a trained infiltrator smacks of McCarthy-ism. Surely someone can disagree with you without having to be trained by The Organization. Can’t they? Must disagreement be ridiculed by the use of insinuations like the ones you laid out?

Rather than suggesting (indirectly) that some person is a member of some organization, perhaps if you engaged in a debate on the merits, that would be more compelling to an educated audience? Can’t your ideas stand criticism? From where I sit, you have really done an injustice to your thoughts and ideas.

And I swear, if you call me a dupe…well I don’t know what I’ll do, but it won’t be pretty. Lots of capital letters may be involved, and it will probably end in “it all works until it doesn’t.”

Login or register to post comments Re: THE PRIZE Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 13:14 #71144 (in reply to #71136)

ALOHA!!

cannima- Thank you for your observations. Yep, thanks for throwing in that reminder about “human nature”, which is so often tossed to the wind with regard to economics and monetary issues. Almost to the point where humanity is completely ignored in the complexity of the pseudo-scientific formulas that pervade grad schools across America.

Yes, also to your point with regards to China mainlanders. Where the heck would the US Treasury be without China buying our, oh so safe, US Debt. By the way, I do see more increasing numbers of Chinese tourists here in Hawaii as well, although I have a hard time telling whether they are from HK or mainland China.

otherwise who can answer me this question, why US has developed into current situation? Is that supposedly a check-balance?

I for one believe America would look very different without World Reserve Currency status and the US FED, which is to say I believe our monetary monopoly has gotten America to the “current situation”. Hand anyone a blank check and they will fill it with as many 99999 as they can(human nature prevails), so you are correct, in my book, as there can be no “check-balance” as long as our money is based on and backed by nothing but “debt”. Debt balances nothing … debt corrupts, especially an unlimited supply.

Without those mainland China workers and savers Americans would have to pay a lot more for goods and services, and have a lot less “benefits” and “entitlements”. Much of the Western Nations live off cheap Chinese labor. Once again … IT ALL WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN’T!

Login or register to post comments Re: THE PRIZE Submitted by davefairtex (2293 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 13:35 #71145 (in reply to #71136)

I can believe that HK folk look down on people from the mainland. The people who live on HK island look down on those who live in Mong Kok. I’m sure the rich people on the mainland look down on the un-educated farmers from the countryside too.

Still, this is aside from the central point – that of freedom to criticize. For example, this blog and others are freely available in America. If we were to start repeatedly criticizing the government of China, would it be freely available in China? My sense is, no. Do you feel otherwise? Is specific, constant, harsh criticism of the central government permitted on the mainland?

I consider what you can say freely without being silenced is one metric of real freedom. With all the … crap that has happened in America lately, we still retain that essential freedom – to criticize our own government, for whatever good it does.

Last point. I am intrigued about this being your first post. After just taking MtnGntx to task about his accusations of shills coming onto blogs and criticizing posts, I can’t help but wonder if … nah. It can’t be. 🙂

Login or register to post comments Re: Mortgage-Title Fraud: A National Catastrophe Submitted by loannetter (809 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 14:08 #71146 (in reply to #71122)

BOB47,

So did you see the WP article about the little known 2 page bill relating to electornic notary tansactions? Apparently few in Congress realized this could legitimaize and further complicate such things as who really owns title to something secured by a lien.

http://tinyurl.com/3a7fymn

“We are afraid that people’s pensions and retirement savings are being impacted,” Katopis said in an interview Thursday. “Investors are deeply concerned about possible documentation inconsistencies related to mortgages. It is vital that trustees promptly address these matters.”

What if your teacher’s pension was heavily invested in California real estate illegally seized or in question? The mind boggles.

Login or register to post comments Re: Foreclosure mess might actually help non foreclosure sales Submitted by loannetter (809 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 14:15 #71147 (in reply to #71078)

NYUGrad,

FSBO gives some buyers the willies. Those who go for it are often not your most viable buyers. You immediatly slap on the ‘cheap seller avoiding fees’ lable. As a seller, you have no agent to verify the validity of your buyer or be the gobetween. You can expect real estate agents to steer people away from your street to avoid losing their captive buyer. Just sayin!

I know several people whose homes have sat empty for over a year trying to avoid the commission while sales popped on either side. You are missing out marketing visibility and sheer numbers of people seeing that listing or being driven past if you have a legitmate MLS listing. Of course there are seller sites but agents don’t like presenting offers to an owner. It’s a cultural thing I guess. Depends on the town. Raleigh is pretty conservative.

Login or register to post comments Re: So there is NO viable lawful contract Submitted by MtnGntx (180 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 14:29 #71148 (in reply to #71143)

Im laughing Dave,

I would not call you a dupe. And I havent called Luggie a dupe either, at least not to the best of my intentions. You hit the nail on the head though, because by a spurious demonstrative association alone, I have left you with the impression that I have called Luggie a dupe. That is EXACTLY how propaganda and unfortuneately our current legal system works… subtle association, inuendo, and a cloaking of intent and truth behind obfuscation.

I did indicate that he was both consciously and unconsciously using techniques to diminish my comments in favor of his own viewpoint. I also indicated that this sort of communication was ubiquitous, effective, and employed by social engineers to influence public opinion. I said most of us do the same thing… obfuscation and spin has replaced clear and direct communication and debate in the public arena…. and most of us are unconsciously influenced by it as well. I pointed these things out because I really had a difficult time understanding Luggies point as it was buried in such distractions. Im not sure I understand it now and I apologized for any misunderstanding my inexpert characterization of the system may have left behind. Finally, I made the comparisons because one of my recent posts in response Grym included a link to a pertinent analysis of these same techniques utilized very consciously and very unfairly to denigrate an individuals credibility.

The only way we will get out of this mess is through the clear and thoughtful communication of intent and purpose. This is indeed what makes Blogs like this so valuable. I enjoy having my viewpoints challenged, and I enjoy debate. Obfuscation, inuendo, disrespect…. these things I don’t like so much.

Know thyself and take responsibility for ones actions and intentions.

Login or register to post comments Re: Looking For A Correction In Gold? Submitted by Grym (2586 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 15:14 #71149 (in reply to #71138)

Bull Hunter,

I read Bill’s comments very day, Hussman every week and NIA. I was slow getting into gold, but mine is up 41.4% (so far) and while I’d like to see a pull back I plan on continuing to average into it each quarter.

The only point in the latest NIA video I find fault with is his perception that people are not talking about a bond bubble. Since I am heavily into bonds I have noticed a lot bond bubble talk.

Although I am not “married” to bonds they are doing just fine with 10 yr zeros up over 16% this year and my Treasuries mutual fund is up 7.97%. I have also done well trading both TLT and LQD and like the ability to set stops on them.

To each his own, but IMO most of those talking bubble-talk simply want to sell us something else.

I think societal collapse is already happening, but in slow motion. Much of the TV talk and gov blather is designed to hide what those in the worst areas of the country already are experiencing.

I appreciate your comments and good wishes, thanks.

Grym

Login or register to post comments Re: Looking For A Correction In Gold? Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 15:49 #71150

Grym,

As I approach retirement age, I’m becoming more interested in bonds. I’m toying with the idea of turning my ROTH IRA into a “Permanent Portfolio” ala Harry Browne – 25% stocks, 25% bonds, 25% gold and 25% cash equivalents.

I’d still have my speculative account for swing trading various things.

I’m glad to read that you check out the NIA. I don’t see them mentioned around here very often. I’ve been watching Daniel’s videos for years.

Regards,
BH

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