Bill Cara’s Blog for Oct 7, 2010 [See post-close report]

October 7, 2010 by Bill Cara Bookmark and Share

Morning Call [9:09am ET] I know these are crazy times, but my team is talking up geocosmic correlations, UFO close encounters and the ‘new normal’ where we buy stocks on a weak economy, sell on a strong economy, and speculate about Friday’s employment data where a strong number will be bearish as the market believes in QE and only a recovering economy will stop it. It’s probably a good time to go fishing.

According to my woo woo advisor:

(Oct 6) is the 3 year anniversary of the all time high, 1161 vibrates off the 666 March 2009 low, and according to Raymond Merriman: “But now our attention will begin to focus on Venus retrograde, taking place on October 8. This signature has a 78% historical correlation to primary or greater cycles within an orb of 12 trading days, as reported in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlation to Trading Cycles.” It has an 83% correlation to a 4% or greater reversal in stock indices within 4 trading days. Since the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction of September 18 and Sun-Jupiter opposition of September 21 also have a 75+% correlation to primary or greater cycles within 12 trading days, it is possible that all signatures could be fulfilled with a cycle crest during the period all these time bands overlap. Time for a reversal???

UFO’s visiting China? I can just imagine little Geithners popping up all over. How will that affect the moon cycles?

http://newsfeed.time.com/2010/10/07/chinas-latest-export-boom-ufo-close-…

With all the nonsense in the air these days, the one piece of important news will be the outcome of the Currency War meetings in Washington this week attended by the G-20, World Bank and IMF. Unfortunately, according to Tim Geithner, the issue “is not something we’re going to solve in the next three months”.

Six months would be fine.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-06/geithner-sees-a-damaging-dynami…

During the next six months I will be discussing my own Group of 20, all independent traders like myself who may wish to co-develop with me a one-of-a-kind trader’s village (condo’s for living and co-op’s for working and playing) sited in tax-free Bahamas, near the Nassau International Airport, combined with an upscale boutique hotel of about 100 rooms. If you have a minimum $1 million investable funds and are seeking to work alongside managers of hedge funds and family offices, please feel free to contact me at village@caratrading.com. I have the land plus the requisite permits and plans in place and could possibly break ground this year for occupancy and start-up within 18 months. I am aware of nothing like this for traders in the world. As soon as we close on this one, I will organize a similar one for Freeport Bahamas.

Interesting comment this morning from Credit Suisse research department:

Due to the asset allocation shift away from equities and the strong net inflows into fixed income funds in 2009, we believe positive equity market performance and tighter credit spreads in 2010 could help ignite inflows back into equities. However, we estimate that the largest population segment in the US (baby-boomers, pre-retirees) may never approach the equity allocation levels approached in the last bull market.

In this morning’s news, the Bank of England and European Central Bank both opted for no change in policy. Equity futures have popped in the past few minutes.

Have a good day.

CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report

Unless you were directly involved in the crude oil and precious metals markets today was all quiet on the western front (S&P-0.16%). An early pre-opening rally in the S&P futures attracted a multitude of sellers, as prices fell -1% from morning highs before bottoming and drifting up towards the breakeven level into the close.

After being up over +1% in early morning trade, precious metal prices reversed violently, cascading lower throughout the session, leading some to believe the rally is over. Surveying the charts the price action today should temper bullish enthusiasm, and can’t be dismissed as irrelevant by objective traders. When prices look vulnerable to a correction, prudent money management demands taking some profits and tightening up stops to preserve unrealized gains.

While there certainly could be more near-term weakness in silver (SLV-2.60%) and gold (GLD-1.03% (plenty of Johnny-come-lately Bulls), the fundamental case for much higher prices remains intact.

An anticipated correction should be a three wave affair, with wave A starting today, perhaps falling down to the 20-day exponential moving average (currently near 127 in GLD). Wave B would then commence retracing 50-62% of the sell off (130-131), before wave C takes prices back down towards the June highs (123.50ish) which also happens to be close to a 50% retracement of the 10-week rally (123ish) and the 50-day moving average (122.27).

Tomorrow the focus will be the unemployment report. Sluggish job growth will prompt QE II, while better than expected numbers means the economy is poised to track higher. So, as Mr. Tepper noted last week, it is a win/win for equities; buy, buy, buy, buy.

If only it were that easy.

An early rally up to S&P 1170 should inspire some profit taking, with bargain hunters wading in to test the water around 1130. Breaking and closing below 1130 should alert traders to a possible change in trend.

Have a good one, and good luck to us all tomorrow.

– Patrick

Login or register to post comments Bookmark and Share Comments Full Text: This Morning’s Claims Report Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 09:16 #70968

http://tinyurl.com/2eufkvy

——

Feel free to discuss this as you would any other work of fiction.

Login or register to post comments Morning Call Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 09:31 #70969

Bill,

After consulting the entrails of an unclean yak, I’ve concluded that we have somehow been mysteriously teleported to October 2007.

Regards,
BH

Login or register to post comments Re: Full Text: This Morning’s Claims Report Submitted by NYUGrad (2872 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 09:39 #70971 (in reply to #70968)

Last week number was revised up.

See you all at s&p 5k, gold 10k and slice of pizza 50 USD

Login or register to post comments Cara 100 Update Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 09:41 #70972

(continued from yesterday’s blog)

AAPL – estimates increased at Canaccord through 2011. iPad and iPhone continues to sell well. Buy rating and $366 price target.

COST – estimates, target lowered at Citigroup. COST estimates were reduced through 2012. Company has limited potential to further expand its operating margin. Hold rating and new $65 price target.

COST – estimates, target raised at Morgan Stanley. Shares of COST now seen reaching $69. Estimates also increased, given higher expected holiday sales. Overweight rating.

Login or register to post comments Selling some TZA Submitted by jet8400 (71 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 09:50 #70976

Plan on locking in some profits at S&P 1150 if we see it. Probably would be around 12:00.

Login or register to post comments Re: Inflation Expectation Noise Submitted by Grym (2586 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 09:51 #70977

Submitted by Grym (2574 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 09:44 #70974 (in reply to #70961)

Kaimu,

“I really do not care what house prices are but I do care what I have to pay for business supplies and cost of living. None of those prices reflect true “deflation in prices”.”

You may be unaffected by house prices, (and are quite possibly right) but for many this is their single most valued asset. You may be confident the American Dream is invalid — they may be believers.

“FedEx is raising shipping costs again on me. Tell MISH that … let him know that a greater majority of us would rather see this “deflation” hit cost of living and cost of business rather cost of housing!”

This is important to you, but ask yourself, “What does the average citizen care or even think about FedEx costs?” If you quit paying FedEx you’ll be out of business, but they fear that if they quit paying the mortgage they will be out on the street.

Who do you think will have the most impact on the economy or the markets — you as an individual businessman or the masses who watch American Idol and their favorite team each weekend?

Paying attention to such noise may be very important.

Login or register to post comments tuesdays are golden Submitted by sammas (189 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 09:53 #70978

probably old news for the traders here, but interesting if you havent seen it:

http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/10/golden-tues…

Login or register to post comments Enjoyed the UFo report Submitted by NYUGrad (2872 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 10:00 #70979

Maybe the market knows that we have captured a few UFO’s and have now harnessed the power of their, light speed travel, unlimited renewable energy tech, and weapons.

Login or register to post comments dollar strength?? Submitted by davefairtex (2293 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 10:05 #70980

So the brief bit of dollar strength this morning (its up 0.30 from its low of 77.15) starting at 9am ET caused a 10 point drop in SPX, and a $15 drop in the price of gold. I’m not calling the bottom in the dollar just yet, I’m just pointing out how much of our current move up depends just on the dollar continuing to plummet.

Login or register to post comments Re: dollar strength?? Submitted by jet8400 (71 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 10:16 #70981 (in reply to #70980)

I think all of the moves are speculating an end of QE.

Login or register to post comments Re: dollar strength?? Submitted by jack black (830 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 11:24 #70982 (in reply to #70980)

Yap, that was an astonishing descend in dollar. I suspect we are overdue for a bounce and thus I unloaded most of my long positions and started small short positions with tight stops.

I just sold my SLW puts bought yesterday. Most likely money left on the table but no point of risking, this was a high leverage play.

FD: long UUP, UNG, TZA, and DZZ (small positions).

EDIT: UNG just crashed, triggered my stop. This one is very good about testing my nerves.

Login or register to post comments Faber`s October Market Outlook Submitted by jack black (830 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 10:44 #70983

“October Market Outlook (Highlights)
Here are a few highlights of Faber`s Monthly Report:

I. Equity Markets -Faber was correct last month in predicting a rally based upon extremely negative investor sentiment. He is more cautious about October because stocks are very overbought according to the % of stock above their 50 day moving average. Another reason for concern, is that after a strong September, markets often fall sharply in October and November. He is underweight equities right now.

II. Emerging Markets – Countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, etc are likely entering a price bubble thanks to worldwide money printing. Faber would not be buying these high-flying markets right now even though they could enter a final parabolic phase. He would be selling positions.

III. Dollar and Currencies – The dollar is extremely oversold and investor sentiment is very bearish. Conversely, investors are very bullish on the Euro (96% bullish according to DSI). Faber believes that a inflection point could be at hand leading to a nice move upward move in the dollar. He would not be short the dollar right now.

IV. Gold and Commodities – Because he is bullish on the dollar right now, Faber believes there could be a significant correction in gold and other commodities. This could be a rather large decline, but would represent a buying opportunity. Why? More Quantitative Easing would be on the way.

V. Bonds – If the market declines and the dollar surges, this would be a positive for treasuries. However, upside is limited to 2.08% on the ten year (Dec 2008 low). Faber does not expect yields to fall to new lows.

VI. Quantitative Easing – The decline in asset markets will provide cover for the Fed to print more money.

Source: BlackSwanInsights”

I feel he is spot on, even though I don’t see a huge pullback coming and I’m very bullish in the 3-6 months horizon.

Login or register to post comments …. Submitted by baz22 (1408 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 10:44 #70984

could be my imagination, but supply seems tight at astm…

Login or register to post comments Fast Currents/ TZA hedge Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 10:44 #70985

We need to pull back- that’s true whether we continue higher through the remainder of the month, or whether we pull back more significantaly as part of normal consolidation.

Opened a very small (small enough to carry) position in TZA as a hedge @ 24.34.

Login or register to post comments Re: Enjoyed the UFo report Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 11:11 #70986 (in reply to #70979)

Although hidden from the public, an actual EBE (Extraterrestrial Biological Entity) addressed Wall Street Insiders at a press conference held in a secret meeting room within the Goldman Sachs compound on August 31, 2010.

Here’s photographic proof:

http://tinyurl.com/27r54dn

Login or register to post comments OUTRAGEOUS what those toronto financiers get away with! Submitted by jock (591 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 11:15 #70987

2nd time Yukon gold explorer Tarsis (TCC) have done this in just a few months. Public share price is at 0.50, and Tarsis offers: 50% off retail for the financiers, and an 18 month warrant for a full share at today’s retail price. Out-f**king-rageous

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, Oct 04, 2010 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) — Tarsis Resources Ltd.(CA:TCC 0.50, -0.07, -12.28%) (“Tarsis” and “the Company”) is pleased to announce that it closed the private placement of 4,100,000 units at $0.25 per Unit to raise gross proceeds of $1,025,000 On October 1, 2010….

Each Unit issued in the private placement consists of one common share and one non-transferable common share purchase warrant exercisable for 18 months to acquire one common share at $0.50. The Units have a four month hold period ending on February 1, 2011. Insider participation amounted to 20,000 units (0.5%). In addition, Finder’s Warrants, entitling the holder to purchase up to 234,150 Units for a period of 18 months from issue at $0.25 per Unit and cash finder’s fees of $58,538 were paid to Global Market Development LLC (Mr. Jefferey D. Phillips).

These bastards are NEVER getting any of my hard-earned shekels !

Login or register to post comments Don Quixote tilts at Tarsis! Submitted by jock (591 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 11:24 #70988

I just emailed the company, cc to Ontario Securities Commission:

Tarsis, you should be tarred and feathered!

2nd time you’ve done this in one summer – offer 50% off retail to the financiers, with an 18 month full-warrant at today’s retail price. I buy your shares at retail, and you dilute me like this? It’s easier for me to simply bang my head against the wall !

Is it really SO hard to raise money on fair times in the hottest exploration jurisdiction in the world?

At least you’re showing your true colors early on. You treat your shareholders like s**t.

Login or register to post comments Betting the Move Submitted by jet8400 (71 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 11:37 #70989

I think we can all agree there is going to be large moves in the markets tomorrow and possible swings in either direction as the clear direction is determined. Today’s close should give us the outcome vs good or bad jobs data seeing that right now I think the majority forecast is bad due to unimpressive unemployment change and bad ADP number yesterday. Today I think there is still much uncertainty and I would expect the market to go down because we are a bit stretched on the long side. IMO QE is the major debate and I think you could make a good argument to stop QE for the time being with good or bad jobs data. There’s going to be some good debates across the country this weekend.

Good – The economy is on the turn upward since change in unemployment is one of the last signs you would see in a recovery and QE is not necessary and is close to destroying the dollar.

Bad – QE is not working. The economy is not getting better and adding more weights to your feet to keep your head above water is suicidal.

Trying to game a large move is risky business. Since I’m not in the business of eating sand and making diamonds, I’m going to be slightly leveraged to the downside. What do you think?

Login or register to post comments baz22/ASTM Submitted by tobyt (75 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 11:46 #70990

it shd start to do real well as I finally bailed on it the other day….in the bio area I currently have ALTH, KERX & CLDX w/ the $5 calls sold against all three and have been selling the GTXI puts to get it cheaper for the past few months. What a crazy market…….I have no idea of whats coming down the road and am hesitant to get more involved w/my little miners, HL, TGB, XRA etc in front of what should be at least a short term pullback……as was said often in Vietnam, “patience my ass, I want to kill something” but patience we must have. (I think)

Login or register to post comments Re: Betting the Move Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 11:55 #70991 (in reply to #70989)

I don’t know jet8400………seeing as the market has little to do with economic reality and everything to do with currency rates/FED intervention, it’s a tough call.

While Uncle Ben has shown no regard for the little people, he probably does care about keeping his job/serving his masters and IMHO, that job is making the stock market look as rosy as possible going into the mid-term elections.

Whether he can pull it off is the question.

I’m currently near neutral with a slight bias to the upside. I’m also a founding member of DENSA.

Regards,
BH

Login or register to post comments Re: Fast Currents/ TZA hedge closed Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 11:58 #70992 (in reply to #70985)

TZA closed @ 24.65. I’m just going to stay out of the water.

Login or register to post comments Re: Betting the Move Submitted by jet8400 (71 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 12:03 #70993 (in reply to #70991)

BH,

I see your point. What about the thought that the republicans favored to do well this election is causing the rally?

Login or register to post comments Re: Enjoyed the UFo report Submitted by Grym (2586 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 12:04 #70994 (in reply to #70979)

I’m curious to know if anyone else here has encountered a UFO.

I did in the fall about 1972 while on the way home from a church trustee board meeting. At first I thought it was two or more planes about to crash into each other. It was a moonless, but clear night and all I saw was three horizontal rows of blinking red lights.

I had nothing to give a sense of scale or distance, but I pulled into a right turn lane near my house and lined the lights up with a street sign. Since relative to the with of the sign there was no change in the width of the light group, I could tell it was hovering in place.

After a short time they began to move away from me and I followed. In trying to keep pave I was soon traveling over 70 mph. I was halted due to a “T” intersection — the lights kept going straight ahead and then diminished to a pinpoint and sped out of sight in an instant. In all the encounter last about 10 or 15 minutes.

I have found four people who have had nearly identical experiences — one was a friend who flew for Eastern Airlines who told me many commercial pilots had stopped reporting these sightings which were very common but unexplainable.

Login or register to post comments Minera Andes Announces Discovery Submitted by M R Ducks (41 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 12:08 #70995

Minera Andes Announces Discovery of 5 Kilometres of New High-Grade Gold/Silver Veins at San Jose Mine.
http://tinyurl.com/235t6t7

Heavy volume..

FD: *smiling*

Login or register to post comments Re: Enjoyed the UFo report Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1486 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 12:10 #70996 (in reply to #70994)

I’m curious to know if anyone else here has encountered a UFO.

No but I am confident they exist. Nothing else but extraterrestrial influence can explain this attached image:

AttachmentSize crime_of_the_century.jpg 35.06 KB Login or register to post comments Twiggs – Is the Fed serious? Submitted by Dave M (114 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 12:14 #70997

“The dollar is falling like a stone in anticipation of further quantitative easing (QE) by the US Federal Reserve. A number of Fed officials have recently stated their support for further accommodation. I agree with Joseph Stiglitz, however, that the $1.5 trillion the Fed has injected into the economy so far has done little to boost domestic investment. The money is instead being channeled into Treasurys, government-backed MBS and interest-bearing deposits with the Fed, or is leaking offshore in search of higher returns.

Given that QE has so far been ineffective, why should the Fed believe that a second tranche would be any different? Or is this merely posturing to ratchet up pressure on China ahead of the upcoming G20 meeting on exchange rates?

Login or register to post comments Re: Enjoyed the UFo report Submitted by jet8400 (71 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 12:18 #70998 (in reply to #70994)

While I was in the Navy I saw quite a bit of fighter activity and they can do some crazy manuevers. I’m not saying that’s what you saw but I have seen fighters take off straight up (no runway) and get out of sight in a matter of seconds. I don’t believe or refute ET but it has never had an effect on me nor am I concerned about it. The engineering behind such a craft would be mind blowing.

Login or register to post comments Gold hedgers compared to the price of gold Submitted by Telestar3d (422 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 12:31 #70999

Following up on DaveV and BillySundance’s gold disscussion from yesterday.

FWIW

http://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders…

The chart shows the net short
position of gold hedgers compared to the price of gold.
The “red” line is the price of gold; the blue line is the
net short position held by “commercial” hedgers. The
hedgers are always short, so it is their relative net
shortness that is important. The last time the hedgers
were this short was back in mid-summer before gold
fell $100/ounce. They were also this net short last November and December,
before gold fell $160/ounce.
Do with this information as you wish, but if the past is
prologue to the future… if the child is the father to the
man… gold’s future for the next several weeks is
tenuous at best.
courtesy:Gartman

Login or register to post comments Re: Betting the Move Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 12:40 #71000

“What about the thought that the republicans favored to do well this election is causing the rally?

No doubt the prospect of gridlock or better has some influence on the current rally. The Republican establishment has always been aligned with the bankers and oil men.

Read Kevin Phillips book, “American Dynasty”. An enlightening look at power and politics.

Login or register to post comments Re: Enjoyed the UFo report Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 12:46 #71001 (in reply to #70996)

LOL, Vad. That’s the spirit.

Reminds me of this one:

http://tinyurl.com/2d7qr24

Login or register to post comments Re: OUTRAGEOUS what those toronto financiers get away with! Submitted by Johnny (836 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 13:23 #71002 (in reply to #70987)

This sort of “business” puts the whole junior miner sector in a bad light. TCC management should just get out of mining and buy into a traveling circus.
J

Login or register to post comments coxe on Brazil and speculation Submitted by jock (591 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 12:53 #71003

When I first went to work in Brazil in 1989, a taxi driver angrily told me the sum he had paid for his cab would now buy only THIS – he held up a pencil! Inflation for him was a personal affront.

THEN, Brazil was a basket case, with 50% per month inflation. NOW, by contrast, the Brazilian currency is rising hard as the US$ tanks! Amazing!

Coxe talks about Brazil, and other amazing changes in the global financial system. You’ll have to listen today or tonight, because tomorrow this audio will be replaced with this week’s:

http://www.bellwebcasting.ca/audience/auditorium/i…

Login or register to post comments Re: Enjoyed the UFo report Submitted by Ross (365 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 13:29 #71005 (in reply to #71001)

BH,
As I type, Cliff Payne at Horizon Car Care is dropping the oil pan on my Daughter’s Honda!

The boys there have a biting sense of humor!!! Next time anyone is in Rockwall Texas, stop in and get a free nitrogen replacement for the air in your tires! It works…

Login or register to post comments Re: Inflation Expectation Noise Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 13:44 #71007 (in reply to #70977)

ALOHA!!

Grym … If people stop paying their mortgages then they will not be out in the street, they will be renting. It depends on what you can afford and if you bought a home with a liar loan or no money down or any of the other con jobs that got you into a house you knew you could never afford then who’s fault is that? If you ran up debt thinking house prices would rise forever and your job would last forever then you failed to be fiscally responsible. just as the US Congress and the US Treasury fail to be fiscally responsible each and every day. The AMERICAN DREAM was built on “liabilities” of debt.

Here is what I said to Dave yesterday(today) …

ALOHA!!

to say that something is not important in general just because it isn’t important to YOU – well that’s just silly.

Please Dave … do you think I am that self-absorbed?

I am a business owner and I am a human being that lives in the USA. Are you either of those?

I am simply stating the obvious, not only from my perspective, but from everyone I know and do business with. None of us see costs to do business or to live going down. You may want to debate money supply and debt levels but in the end none of that matters to the masses. If you doubt me then take your debate out to your local club or bar or to the produce section at your local grocery store or maybe to the voting booth and see just how relevant your debate is. I wish I could say different, but when I speak of these monetary issues in public I feel as if I were speaking Martian. It goes over about as well as telling people at a party you work for the IRS! HA!! Which I did …

Why do I need to debate debt levels or inflation and deflation when all my monetary investments are based on one single thesis … the destruction of the USD. Debating the “supply and demand” of paper debt that is nothing more than political paper backed by insolvent liabilities is akin to debating religion. Who cares which one you belong to because in the end you’re dead any way!

This is THE END … beautiful friend THE END …
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDN9y2vTdUs

Let me add to that post that when I voted for RON PAUL I was voting against debt, the US FED and the US Treasury, which is essentially the monetary issues of inflation that has ruled our lives for many, many decades. Three years of shaky real estate prices that are still higher than 1970 prices does not make a Great Depression in my book. While I voted for a path to fiscal responsibility and the elimination of the US FED everyone else was voting IRAQ and FETUS RIGHTS and GAY MARRIAGE mixed in with HOPE and CHANGE. None of those issues matter when America defaults.

Login or register to post comments Re: Enjoyed the UFo report Submitted by Grym (2586 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 13:50 #71008 (in reply to #70998)

jet4800,

There was absolutely no sound. They hovered, but I was in the army and choppers were not quiet.

I don’t know it was, but only what I saw what I saw. I called the local airport the next day and there were no flight plans filed for the area or time. No NG exercises. I declined to leave my name for obvious reasons 😉

Login or register to post comments Re: Enjoyed the UFo report Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 13:57 #71009 (in reply to #71005)

Ross,

Sounds like the kind of people I like to do business with.

How’s the economy down there? Any more talk of seceding from the Union?

——

Note to Grym:

There are some men dressed in black here to see you.

Login or register to post comments toby Submitted by baz22 (1408 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 13:57 #71010

yeah, patience is a virtue, or a vice ( can’t decide which ).. anyhow, like orch… dna test requirements on federal mandates ain’t a bad thing ( if one is not a crook ).. of course, like the saying goes, paranoia is oftentimes nothing more than heightened awareness !!

Login or register to post comments Re: Inflation Expectation Noise Submitted by Grym (2586 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 14:05 #71011 (in reply to #71007)

Duplicate

Login or register to post comments Re: Inflation Expectation Noise Submitted by Grym (2586 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 14:03 #71012 (in reply to #71007)

“Grym … If people stop paying their mortgages then they will not be out in the street, they will be renting. It depends on what you can afford and if you bought a home with a liar loan or no money down or any of the other con jobs that got you into a house you knew you could never afford then who’s fault is that? If you ran up debt thinking house prices would rise forever and your job would last forever then you failed to be fiscally responsible. just as the US Congress and the US Treasury fail to be fiscally responsible each and every day. The AMERICAN DREAM was built on “liabilities” of debt.”

You can blame people for foolish investment, for believing in the American Dream or whatever, but believing yours is the only valid approach is unreal.

People react according to perception. This is what sells products. This is what determines trends. This is what allows scams like the toxic mortgages.

Not everyone who is in default was lying — many have faithfully paid for years as did their parents (whose jobs did last forever). If people believe they will be out — THAT is what matters. They won’t know or care what you believe or whether you are right.

The tech bubble, mortgage bubble and all wacky mass behavior is based on fallible human thinking.

Login or register to post comments Re: Faber`s October Market Outlook Submitted by cheapy (382 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 14:06 #71013 (in reply to #70983)

Jack, thanks for posting the Faber comments, but I went to blackswaninsights blog and couldn’t find anything on it there. Could you post a link, please?

Login or register to post comments Re: Inflation Expectation Noise Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 14:16 #71014 (in reply to #71012)

ALOHA!!

You can blame people for foolish investment, for believing in the American Dream or whatever, but believing yours is the only valid approach is unreal.

I don’t have a patent on “valid approaches” or conducting ones life of living within one’s means. There are plenty of diverse approaches to investing and living in the World as we can all attest here. We all know there are no guarantees, but I would say most Americans spend their money as if they had one. I would also say the US Treasury acts as if they have a guarantee … Perhaps we can call that the hubris of Empire.

Login or register to post comments Re: Enjoyed the UFo report Submitted by NYUGrad (2872 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 14:20 #71015 (in reply to #70994)

for humans to think we are the only intelligent beings in this entire universe would be the height of hubris.

Login or register to post comments Re: Gold hedgers compared to the price of gold Submitted by BillySundance (746 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 14:39 #71016 (in reply to #70999)

Telestar – seems like another case of selective historical evaluation. What about right at the beginning of the chart where the short position was high but the gold price ran from $1035 to $1200? Why is that excluded from discussion? I don’t see anything in this chart that suggests a repeatable pattern. And why is it only showing 2 years? If Gartman is trying to make the case that this is a reliable indicator, where are the other examples of reliable data points? I want 20 years or more of this being a repeatably useful indicator.

I for one have completely expunged all Gartman opinions as part of my information diet. In mid-2009, the guy called Warren Buffet an idiot and shorted a 10% portfolio weighting of Berkshire Hathaway in his fund. That is all I need to know to determine this guy is just a buffoon and not worth my time.

Why not concentrate info intake on a few tried and true money managers that have track records and don’t feel the need to spew opinions constantly?

Login or register to post comments Re: Gold hedgers compared to the price of gold Submitted by Telestar3d (422 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 15:10 #71017 (in reply to #71016)

BillyS said, “Why not concentrate info intake on a few tried and true money managers that have track records and don’t feel the need to spew opinions constantly?”

Agree completely with your statement, he talks way to much and is a bit of a wind talker. In fairness the chart was provide by a Mr. Slavin and Gart just past it on with his take.

What I was really just trying to point out was the “net short position” concept by commercial hedgers.

I cleared out of a few gold stocks yesterday, but based on today’s price action have hedged out a third of my gold core trying to let go on a rhino horn. Usually my hedges just cost me money, time will tell.

Appreciate your comments and input as well as those of others. Cheers.

Login or register to post comments ADBE explosion Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1486 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 15:15 #71018

15:00:42
Adobe Systems Inc Strength attributed to positive comments from NYT technology section
– Speculates about topics of conversation at recent meeting between top execs at Adobe and Microsoft. Discussed strategies for teaming to combat Apple’s dominance in the mobile device market. Speculates a merger may have been discussed as one option at the meeting that lasted over one hour.

Login or register to post comments Re: Inflation Expectation Noise Submitted by davefairtex (2293 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 15:51 #71019 (in reply to #71007)

Kaimu – “Please Dave … do you think I am that self-absorbed?”

Wow. You said it, not me.

Losses to middle class wealth from losses in home equity, often the savings of multiple generations put into housing down payments and then completely wiped out due to the crash, in total dollar terms completely dwarf the extra money we have to pay for daily expenses such as gas, fed ex packages, and bread. Many homeowners are still in fantasy-land about how much their home is “worth”, and when that value will become apparent again. Ask some guy who bought his place in 2005 and put in granite countertops, and he’ll no doubt quote something above what he paid for it, and he’s holding out for the market to come back – which is always does. He’s the guy who doesn’t see deflation. But his “sense” isn’t the same as a real “mark to market”, is it? Try actually selling that home, and you’ll find out fast its actually underwater, and your equity is just gone.

Thing is, I largely agree with your trade, and the actions you’ve taken personally, and your sense about debt, and money, and all of it. But I differ about the path we will take to get there. There may well be a collapse of the dollar, then again, maybe not. My bet is, there’s an even money chance we will go through some ferocious deflation instead.

My main point about deflation is that – understanding it is a useful thing. Once you understand what deflation is, and what it does to our current monetary system, everything the Fed has done, and is doing, makes complete sense. The Fed’s actions are entirely reasonable, within their own world view. I may not agree with the system we operate under, but once I grasped what was really going on and its implications, it all came together.

However, the reasons the Fed gives for their actions – its just a cover story for popular consumption. Supposedly they’re dead set on buying treasuries and MBS in order to stop the country from going into a recession? Have they ever done this before? So what is different now?

Answer: deflation! It explains everything, it really does. But deflation does NOT mean the price of everything is going down, and that is what can be confusing.

The big, big question is, can they keep executing QE after QE to continue to fight deflation. If not, if the bond or currency market wakes up in a big way, we WILL see deflation, and it will NOT be pretty.

Login or register to post comments US Astronauts Comment on UFOs Submitted by MtnGntx (180 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 15:31 #71020

http://tinyurl.com/2e7p22t

Login or register to post comments Fed help for pm’s today? Submitted by Bill Cara (1810 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 15:41 #71021

http://tinyurl.com/2efvobg

Login or register to post comments Re: Inflation Expectation Noise Submitted by Grym (2586 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 15:41 #71022 (in reply to #71014)

“We all know there are no guarantees, but I would say most Americans spend their money as if they had one. I would also say the US Treasury acts as if they have a guarantee … Perhaps we can call that the hubris of Empire.”

Agreed.

My only point was markets (because of people) will not likely act the way they “should”. They will be highly determined by irrational and emotional forces. These forces are largely influenced by individual experiences and fears.

Login or register to post comments Re: ADBE explosion Submitted by baz22 (1408 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 15:45 #71023 (in reply to #71018)

would not it be odd, if the old $ 30.00 – $ 32.00 area ( yahoo ) get toyed with again !

Login or register to post comments Are they saying I need a new broker? Submitted by bobbyo (583 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 15:53 #71024

TO IB:
“I am using web trader and thought a sell stop order 1833792962 should be activated on UCO that actually went well below the stop and is a very liquid stock. Is there something wrong with the way I set up the order so it did not trigger? Or did it trigger and not show up on the Web trader screen? Or did it just not trigger which would concern me greatly.
Thank You,
Bob”
From IB:
“Mr. Bobbyo,
The stop order was triggered however the order we sent was not acknowledged by exchange at this time. This order is not working at this time. The detail of the order is being reviewed. Please manage your risk accordingly.”

I thought I was managing risk by placing a stop loss order.
Bob

Login or register to post comments whew Submitted by baz22 (1408 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 16:02 #71025

watched 3 blocks totaling almost 700,000 shares, within 10 seconds, at the ask just, before the bell on ‘ adbe ‘..

Login or register to post comments Catch of the day Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1486 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 16:09 #71026

Somewhat unusual call today, mostly based on gut feel instead of firm setup.

http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2010/10/oct-07…

Login or register to post comments ADBE – what FUN ! Submitted by jock (591 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 16:11 #71027

I had noticed ADBE’s fall from grace, bounce, and return to the bottom, and bought a bag of cheap out of the money calls. Then there were days of agony as the stock drifted lower, lifeless.

One visit from Steve Ballmer, a bit of “speculation” over an MSFT takeover, and my “speculation” lit up like a rocket …

When cheap calls work, they’re so fun you can’t believe they’re not illegal.

AttachmentSize adbe_october_27_calls_10.10.png 33.25 KB Login or register to post comments Re: ADBE – what FUN ! Submitted by bobbyo (583 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 16:27 #71028 (in reply to #71027)

Jock Awesome. Drinks are on you. Congratulations.
Bob

Login or register to post comments ADBE chart weirdness … Submitted by jock (591 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 16:42 #71029

Charts from tradestation and Schwab show a high for the day of 28.90.

I called Schwab to ask whether ADBE had closed very near the high, or rather far from it. Schwab said there had been a 100 share trade of ADBE on AMEX at 3PM at $30 – which trade did NOT show up on Schwab’s charts!

Bigcharts and Stockcharts show 30 as the high of the day.

So, don’t necessarily trust a single chart when deciding whether to stay in a position overnight. Cover the waterfront.

We don’t need a “flash crash” to make your chart unreliable, just a guy willing to buy 100 shares at a craxy price.

Login or register to post comments Re: Inflation Expectation Noise Submitted by normzyx (67 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 17:41 #71030 (in reply to #71022)

Check out A Mammoth One in Five Borrowers Will Default

That’s more money/credit destruction (=deflation) than even the Fed can handle and is a tip sheet for why the Fed is desperately trying to inflate.

Login or register to post comments UFO’s Submitted by c3wands (4 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 18:02 #71031

I saw something strange crossing the Pacific in an old LST in 1968.

I had the midwatch and all of us on the bridge saw a pair of lights cross in front of the ship very fast and make a sharp right turn and dissssapear. No noise at all.

Login or register to post comments Re: Inflation Expectation Noise Submitted by davefairtex (2293 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 18:10 #71032 (in reply to #71030)

normzyx – that’s exactly what I mean by deflation waiting to happen. Each pending default = shadow deflation! Enough deflation, that causes bank failures, loss of confidence by big depositors, and pretty soon your whole monetary system locks up because nobody trusts anyone else’s solvency. Deflation means trouble.

Now, the Fed can handle “any amount” of deflation simply by printing money and buying assets. Of course that money may not go to the “right place” (i.e it goes into commodities, not housing) but at least the whole system won’t lock up from not enough money floating around.

However, the bond market or the currency market may well impose high costs on the money printing at some point. If the buck falls too far, that will impose huge new costs on the domestic economy from higher commodity prices, and the Fed may well decide it cannot continue printing. At that point, their fight against deflation is lost, and so then the only option is to actually deal with the banking issues. Bank holidays, debt to equity conversions, more money is lost.

And then everyone will see and experience deflation, because it will have come out from the shadows and into the light of day.

Login or register to post comments Re: ADBE chart weirdness … Submitted by MarkW (1235 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 18:58 #71033 (in reply to #71029)

Jock- Do you have Streetsmart pro from Schwab? I’m showing a high of 30.00 at 15.54 on a 3min bar. GL.

Login or register to post comments Hussman’s prediction Submitted by DavidV (32 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 19:05 #71034

On August 23, John Hussman titled his weekly commentary as follows: “Why Quantitative Easing is Likely to Trigger a Collapse of the U.S. Dollar.” So those who listened to him back then and immediately invested a lot of money in gold/silver got rewarded handsomely.

Here is an excerpt from that commentary:

“In short, quantitative easing is likely to induce what the late MIT economist Rudiger Dornbusch described as “exchange rate overshooting” – a large and abrupt shift in the spot exchange rate that occurs in order to align long-term equilibrium in the market for goods and services with short-term equilibrium in the capital markets.”

This suggests that the collapse of the $USD we are witnessing now will stop at some point and will turn into a gradual appreciation of $USD, until the next round of QE is announced. The recent rally in PMs will have a very violent reversal at that point, when people realize that $USD will not keep falling forever but in fact will start *appreciating* over the short-to-medium term.

Login or register to post comments Re: Fed help for pm’s today? Submitted by Johnny (836 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 19:22 #71035 (in reply to #71021)

Thank you for the post Bill. Simply publishing the topic has to have a positive effect on PM’s, not so much for bond’s, unless the idea is for Treasury to purchase them at lower prices, assuming most bond buyers are not so “backward looking” as was mentioned.

I google’d Price Level targeting:
Here is the link: http://tinyurl.com/2fgvezh

What Does Price Level Targeting Mean?
A monetary policy goal of keeping overall price levels stable, or meeting a pre-determined price level target. The price level used as a barometer is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), or some similarly broad measure of cost inputs. A central bank or monetary authority operating under a price level targeting system raises or lowers interest rates in order to keep the index level consistent from year to year.

Investopedia explains Price Level Targeting
Price level targeting is similar to inflation targeting in that both establish targets for a price index like the CPI. However, where inflation targeting only looks forward (i.e., a 2% inflation target per year), price level targeting actually takes past years into account when conducting open market operations. So, if the price level rose by 2% in the previous year (from a theoretical base of 100 to 102), the price level would have to drop the next year in order to bring the price level back down to the 100 target level. This could mean more forceful action needs to be taken than would be required if inflation targeting were used.

Price level targeting is generally considered a risky policy stance, and one not used by any of the world’s advanced economies. It is believed to bring more variability in inflation and employment in the short run compared to inflation targeting Most economies feel that a small amount of annual inflation is actually a good thing, up to about 2% per year.

Login or register to post comments Re: ADBE – what FUN ! Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 20:12 #71036 (in reply to #71027)

Way to go, jock- enjoy the high.

Login or register to post comments Downhill Racer- HNU.to v TZA Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 20:14 #71037

http://tinyurl.com/24ld8o9

It’s been pretty close.

http://tinyurl.com/27csujf

Login or register to post comments film that cost over $20,000,000,000,000 to make. “Inside Job” Submitted by NYUGrad (2872 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 20:48 #71038

Comes out early tomorrow Oct 8 in NY and Los Angeles.

Trailer: http://bit.ly/9wx9e1

SYNOPSIS
From Academy Award® nominated filmmaker, Charles Ferguson, comes INSIDE JOB, the first film to expose the shocking truth behind the economic crisis of 2008. The global financial meltdown, at a cost of over $20 trillion, resulted in millions of people losing their homes and jobs. Through extensive research and interviews with major financial insiders, politicians and journalists, INSIDE JOB traces the rise of a rogue industry and unveils the corrosive relationships which have corrupted politics, regulation and academia. Narrated by Academy Award® winner Matt Damon, INSIDE JOB was made on location in the United States, Iceland, England, France, Singapore, and China.

Charles FERGUSON – Director
Charles FERGUSON – Screenplay
Kalyanee MAM – Cinematography
Svetlana CVETKO – Cinematography
Alex HEFFES – Music
Chad BECK – Film Editor
Adam BOLT – Film Editor
Matt DAMON – Voice

EDIT: this is entertainment. and i understand everyone has a motive. But hey, if the majority of the Americans actually learned 1/3 the truth mixed with half truths, it would be better than being in deep sleep apathy, allowing politicians and their masters to do whatever they want.

Login or register to post comments …. Submitted by baz22 (1408 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 21:15 #71039

tobyt… ya’ gotta do what ya gotta do.. Its been a good year with plenty of rushes… When I personally have any doubts, any that outweight the risk-reward ratio, I sell, with no regrets … Can always buy back in.. I do hold core positions, because ( for now ) they were purchased, at what I consider, throw out the baby with the bath-water-prices ( thanks to a quant or two ).. Nobody Really knows what will happen in the Bio-World, but history plays a great part, along with the possibility ( odds ) of a drug getting approval.. sorry to hear you left ‘ astm ‘. This is one I have waited on for well over 5 years ( for clinical phase II and post split ),, since I use to actively trade it. I could be dead wrong, but if the upcoming results are what I believe them to be, the stage will be set for a new direction of healing. Bits and pieces of information pop up around the globe, and astm is certainly not, by any means, the only company out there in this field ( ie: celg ). But, the low float could fuel a rocket ride. In the bio-area, I currently hold: imgn, astm, immu, orch. The others ( celg, onxx, dndn, hgsi, sgen, itmn etc, etc,) I trade in and out of on a daily basis. Caught adbe at $ 27.70 & $ 27.58 today. keeping an eye on clsn and aria.. cort, jazz, and some others… best to ya…

Login or register to post comments Re: film that cost over $20,000,000,000,000 to make. … Submitted by Ross (365 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 21:15 #71040 (in reply to #71038)

This sucker can’t be that accurate. It isn’t R rated…

Login or register to post comments Re: film that cost over $20,000,000,000,000 to make. … Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 21:26 #71041 (in reply to #71040)

Stanley Kubrick directed the R-rated prequel in 1999 when he filmed ‘Eyes Wide Shut.’

Login or register to post comments Re: film that cost over $20,000,000,000,000 to make. … Submitted by Ross (365 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 23:16 #71042 (in reply to #71041)

Kubrick was a wannabe decadent parvenue who actually had more talent than his budgets allowed. His last film was in the end a mediocre adaptation of a splendid Novella.

RIP Stan. He was in no way a pedant which is a good but rare compliment during these days of mediocrity so extravagantly rewarded.

Login or register to post comments Re: ADBE chart weirdness … Submitted by jock (591 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 – 23:27 #71043 (in reply to #71033)

Mark –

My Streetsmart pro had a high of 28.90 on the 1 min, 3 min, 5 min, 15 min, BUT a high of 30 on the daily chart.

Bigcharts has a high of 30 on all timeframes including intra-day.

Tradestation had a high of 30 only on the daily chart, but on all the intra-day charts the high was 28.90.

Stockcharts.com had a high of 30 on the daily. (I can’t see intra-day on this one).

TC-2000 had a high of 28.90 on the daily …

Strange …

Login or register to post comments Re: Downhill Racer- HNU.to v TZA Submitted by westcoaster (297 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 00:57 #71044 (in reply to #71037)

Talk about mowing down the house! I couldn’t resist reloading a little for spec when I saw the price today

Login or register to post comments Re: ADBE chart weirdness … Submitted by Dave M (114 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 01:00 #71045 (in reply to #71043)

Stockcharts shows the sale on the 1 minute chart at about 3:08 pm. Looks like an isolated spike as other sales were about 26.80 at that time.

Login or register to post comments Re: Inflation Expectation Noise Submitted by loannetter (809 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 01:43 #71046 (in reply to #71014)

Kaimu, Grym,

The ‘Hubris of Empire’ is personified by how Wall Street dictates the price of consumption.

Like a canary in the coalmine, the existence of any species that competes with HB&B (like me) is a good sign. Once we are gone, (fait 70% accompli) then Peter Schiff and his ilk will be delighted by a correspondingly uninhibited rise of interest rates. Goody. Foreign investors will return. Our currency supremacy will be restored. All’s well that ends well.

While the American Dream for all is a crock, so is feifdom. Who will own the houses we rent? At this pace, Fannie and Freddie. That means a bigger goverment to collect our rents, Kaimu! When all our goods come from the company store, indentured servitude ad infinitum is not far behind.

Login or register to post comments Re: Inflation Expectation Noise Submitted by davefairtex (2293 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 02:02 #71047 (in reply to #71046)

loannetter – the funny part of your story is, we’re already renting our houses from the loan servicers. We just imagine we’re owners. Who pays off the loan these days? Once it gets close, refinance, do a MEW, and spend that money on a trip, and the servitude continues.

And the old folks, want some cash? Do a negative equity mortgage – your house is now your Social Security. Instead of leaving it to the kids, leave it to Chase instead!

Login or register to post comments Re: Inflation Expectation Noise Submitted by loannetter (809 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 02:33 #71048 (in reply to #71047)

davefairtex,

Contrary to the news headlines many people have built up equity or own their homes outright (roughly 30%). Becoming mortgage free is an acheivable goal. Financial vehicles are just that. Vehicles. You have to get a license for a dog. Perhaps a license for a mortgage should be required (and one for having kids) I’m all for that!

Login or register to post comments futures 4am – Asia flat Submitted by Les (3485 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 04:37 #71049

Dow10900.00-12.00-0.11%
S&P 5001155.50-1.00-0.09%
Nasdaq 1002011.75-2.25-0.11%

China reopens for business with a solid bid. Europe opens flat/slightly negative. French banks and euro autos red.

No sign of a global pullback yet. EWZ finally retracing. A short below 77 could be worth a couple of points, if it is potentially leading a pullback in the US markets which we have yet to see. POT continues to drop nicely from repeat 145 entry opportunities. Below 139 and its a decent gap to fill, especially in a broad based market pullback. No position.

IB was quick to reopen my account following a telephone exchange. I look forward to funding it this month and putting my money where my mouth is in a longer than intraday timeframe.

Login or register to post comments PONZI SCHEME UPDATE………frm zero hege lst eve Submitted by tobyt (75 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 06:58 #71050

Last week, during our regular scheduled Fed balance sheet update, we said “We believe that within one week the Fed will surpass Japan as the second largest holder of Treasurys, and China, the current top holder, in just over a month.” Ww were right: as of Wednesday, the Fed disclosed it held $819.1 billion in US Treasurys. That excludes yesterday’s $2.1 billion POMO which settled today, which does in fact bring the total to above the $821 billion held by Japan as of the end of July. With only $25 billion to go, and a rate of monetization of about $8 billion per week (and likely faster now that prepays are accelerating), we believe the Fed will be #1 by the mid-terms, just in time for the QE2 party to really blast things off. Aside from this there was little notable in the weekly balance sheet update: bank reserves increased by $16 billion in the past week, as Primary Dealers added to their purchasing capacity post the end of quarter window dressing…………and a thanks to baz22 for his updates on current holdings……..PS/baz22 i checked and do hold IMMU, ANDS and will re-buy the ASTM later today/ thanks for the update..OREX still looks interesting as its the only survivor so far of the weight wars.

Login or register to post comments China Market Strength? Submitted by Mackinaw (798 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 08:01 #71051

Oil’s tumbled since yesterday noon, giving back all the gains of the week (another $2 and it will be a 50% retracement of the $12 move since Aug. 24). US$ free-fall’s stopped (paused?). CAN$ getting hammered with oil. Apparently this is all good news in China as overnight Shenzen and Shanghai are both up between 5%-6% whereas the rest of Asia and Europe are solidly red. Shakeout? Pullback? Or major topping action? I wish I knew…

Login or register to post comments Cara 100 Ratings Changes For Friday Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 08:30 #71052

Good morning.

NO POMO Scheduled For Today.

8:30 – Nonfarm Payrolls/Unemployment Rate etc. -95000
10:00 – Wholesale Inventories

——-

AAPL – PT Lifted from $330 to $345 @ Oppenheimer. Outperform

AMZN – Amazon.com downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman
Goldman removed Amazon.com from its Conviction Buy List citing out performance. Share remain Buy rated with a new price target of $195, up from $150.

JNPR – PT Lifted from $30 to $35 @ RBC. Outperform

KO – Coca-Cola reinstated with a Buy at Goldman. Target $68

PG – BMO Capital upgraded Procter & Gamble to Outperform from Market Perform. The analyst views Procter & Gamble’s valuation as attractive and expects growth to pick up in the March quarter. Target $74.

VALE – Vale downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.

——

“A bank is a place that will lend you money if you can prove that you don’t need it.” ~Bob Hope

Login or register to post comments Re: ADBE chart weirdness … Submitted by Olaf (88 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 08:28 #71053 (in reply to #71045)

Apparently such things happen sometimes when orders
are routed to very illiquid electronic exchanges.

Tick data:

newer
07.10.2010 21:08:02 26.8300 200
07.10.2010 21:08:02 26.8300 100
07.10.2010 21:08:02 26.8300 100
07.10.2010 21:08:02 26.8300 400
07.10.2010 21:08:02 30.0000 100
07.10.2010 21:08:02 28.9300 300
07.10.2010 21:08:02 28.8300 400
07.10.2010 21:08:02 28.7300 400
07.10.2010 21:08:02 28.6300 300
07.10.2010 21:08:02 28.5300 300
07.10.2010 21:08:02 28.4300 200
07.10.2010 21:08:02 28.3300 200
07.10.2010 21:08:02 28.2300 200
07.10.2010 21:08:02 28.1300 100
07.10.2010 21:08:02 28.0300 100
07.10.2010 21:08:02 27,2500 500
07.10.2010 21:08:02 27,1500 500
07.10.2010 21:08:02 26,8200 200
07.10.2010 21:08:02 26,8200 100
older

AttachmentSize adbe-times-sales-2010-10-07-21-08-02.png 36.61 KB Login or register to post comments employment situation Submitted by davefairtex (2293 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 08:34 #71054

Caused a momentary dip in SPX of 6 points, only to rebound and now up +4 from its starting point at 830. Lots of excitement.

8:30 AM ET Employment Situation
Nonfarm Payrolls – M/M change
Prior = -54,000
Consensus = -8,000
Consensus Range = -75,000 to 25,000
Actual = -95,000
Private Payrolls – M/M change
Prior = 67,000
Consensus = 85,000
Consensus Range = 0 to 100,000
Actual = 64,000
Unemployment Rate – Level
Prior = 9.6 %
Consensus = 9.7 %
Consensus Range = 9.6 % to 9.8 %
Actual = 9.6 %
Average Hourly Earnings – M/M change
Prior = 0.3 %
Consensus = 0.1 %
Consensus Range = 0.0 % to 0.2 %
Actual = 0.0 %
Av Workweek – All Employees
Prior = 34.2 hrs
Consensus = 34.2 hrs
Consensus Range = 34.2 hrs to 34.3 hrs
Actual =

Login or register to post comments Re: employment situation Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 08:36 #71055 (in reply to #71054)

Thanks, Dave.

Full Text BLS Report (PDF):
http://tinyurl.com/dje47

Login or register to post comments Taking an October Breather in PMs Submitted by 4ever (92 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 09:00 #71056

Anticipating a pullback for the remainder of this month in gold price. It’s definitely in short term overbought condition. We’ve had a good ride up the last two months and when prices turn south, they tend to drop much faster than on the way up! Interestingly, a 20% pullback still results in >$1K price. Price isn’t the same as value, so I’ll be back. Attempting to get the timing right. It’s tough to close it all out because we never know when some extraordinary global event will occur that will shoot prices higher. Gold and mining shares are such a small percent of the total market, when the tide does turn, it could be a tidal wave as everyone tries to squeeze through the funnel together.

Time will tell.

Login or register to post comments Re: Inflation Expectation Noise Submitted by Grym (2586 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 09:21 #71058 (in reply to #71019)

“However, the reasons the Fed gives for their actions – its just a cover story for popular consumption. Supposedly they’re dead set on buying treasuries and MBS in order to stop the country from going into a recession? Have they ever done this before? So what is different now?

Answer: deflation! It explains everything, it really does. But deflation does NOT mean the price of everything is going down, and that is what can be confusing.

The big, big question is, can they keep executing QE after QE to continue to fight deflation. If not, if the bond or currency market wakes up in a big way, we WILL see deflation, and it will NOT be pretty.”

——-

Dave, As usual we’re on the same track here. The government (Fed included) is always playing to the broadest audience with the pronouncements. W said, “Go out and spend or they will have won.” (immediately following 9/11)

Avoid panic, use crises as an excuse, claim TARP being paid back — all pablum for the populace.

The 24/7 info overload with little reliable data only serves to confuse.

The wild card in the Fed plan is the human factor under conditions never quite what either side perceives as total reality.

I am still in the “deflation first” camp, but watching carefully for real change of the trend.

My goal is to make enough to cover what I must spend and so far have been able to do a little better than that. I don’t think my kids will be as well off as my wife and I — this is a first in our family. Until now every generation has progressed educationally and economically. I think “street smarts” (Wall St.) are what counts today.

Login or register to post comments QE II, QEIII, QE IV, QE V all are coming Submitted by NYUGrad (2872 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 09:24 #71059

Substance abuse: “When an individual persists in use of alcohol or other drugs despite problems related to use of the substance, substance dependence may be diagnosed. Compulsive and repetitive use may result in tolerance to the effect of the drug and withdrawal symptoms when use is reduced or stopped. This, along with Substance Abuse are considered Substance Use Disorders…

http://bit.ly/9fGF3S

Login or register to post comments Re: UFO’s Submitted by Grym (2586 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 09:28 #71061 (in reply to #71031)

c3wands,

Thanks for your input. I am signed on to a class next month at our local Jr college Center for Learning in Retirement where the subject will be addressed. If I get any more examples I’ll report them here.

What I saw has been bugging me for half my life. Wish I could have caught up with it. (Maybe not;)

Login or register to post comments Re: Inflation Expectation Noise Submitted by Grym (2586 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 09:44 #71063 (in reply to #71047)

“loannetter – the funny part of your story is, we’re already renting our houses from the loan servicers. We just imagine we’re owners. Who pays off the loan these days? Once it gets close, refinance, do a MEW, and spend that money on a trip, and the servitude continues.”

My home mortgage was paid off 40 years ago. The government collected “rent” is now increasing though real estate taxes rising as the asset value falls.

The services provided by the taxes are falling as the city jobs get cut — library, police and fire — and pensions go unfunded and costs rise.

Once again the deflation—inflation conundrum.

Login or register to post comments Alcoa – AA Submitted by BillySundance (746 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 09:47 #71065

Very nice action in Alcoa – FWIW. I see a lot of money flowing into industrial/commodity related stocks at the moment.

I think if AA can hold on to its gains today, the rest of the market may be playing catch-up for the remainder of the day. We shall see.

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