Bill Cara’s Blog for Oct 5, 2010 [See post-close report]

October 5, 2010 by Bill Cara Bookmark and Share

Morning Call [8:41am ET] Getting away from capital markets trading for five sessions was an effective mental health break. I plan to do them more frequently. Yesterday, although I didn’t blog, I returned and participated in the trading. Today I will do a bit more, slowly easing into the job. Of course today will be easier since precious metal prices are lifting, as they should.

Now that I am more relaxed, I can see the huge gap between the dullness of markets and the agitated state of investors and traders. I applaud our Patrick Veech for the terrific job he does in his wrap-up every day, communicating to you what is important so you too can stay calm.

From this point forward, except for the Week In Review report, I’ll be focused on gold and silver and the other currencies plus the miners. Others on the Cara Trading team will contribute to the blog as well.

For now, I’ll say that gold and silver remain in uptrends. Until I see specific action from central banks in the short term that would serve to reduce investment demand for precious metals, I will remain bullish.

I think there is enough price momentum in the global market to take gold about +$100/oz higher and silver another $4 to $5 in the near term before the US Dollar rallies.

The miners ought to be reporting significant increases in earnings and cash flow for the next several quarters, so except for a nasty surprise from the major central banks, and a possible collapse in precious metals prices of say more than $100 from the peak, I anticipate higher prices in the shares.

Currency futures: $USD and Euro at 78.18 and 1.3789 respectively
blog_oct_5.1.gif

Gold and Silver futures: $1328.50 (+0.94%) and $22.30 (+1.76%) respectively
blog_oct_5.2.gif

2-year chart of $USD showing it is over-sold and ready to rally within one month
blog_oct_5.3.gif

Have a good day.

CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report

Quantitative Easing was taken to a whole new level today with the Japanese heralding a new program of “Comprehensive Monetary Easing”, slashing interest rates to zero and opening the door for all sorts of asset buying including Exchange Traded Funds (ETF). While we have long suspected US monetary authorities had the green light to intervene in financial markets during times of distress, this is the first central bank to explicitly acknowledge the 2000-pound gorilla will be wading into equity markets when it suits their purpose.

Could this be a game changer?

Precious metals rocketed higher (SLV+3.67%; GLD+1.93%) knowing the central banks not only want inflation, but have abandoned all pretense about maintaining price stability and pursuing policies consistent with strong currencies. Debase all fiat currencies, lower the standard of living for all, and monetize debt to soften the blow of repaying future liabilities. Welcome to the brave new world.

It will be interesting to see how the markets react if stronger than expected employment is reported on Friday. Stronger employment growth in theory should be bullish for the equity markets, but could that prompt selling by traders anticipating QE II might not be a foregone conclusion if the economy seems to be turning the corner?

The S&P closed very near the 1160-ish measured move target, next higher resistance up near the Flash Crash recovery high of 1172. Once 1172 is conquered on a closing basis, Bulls will have their sights set on recapturing the yearly high of 1220.

The first sign of trouble will be a decline taking out the September 23 low of 1122.79, an area for cutting risk exposure if the S&P closes materially below this support level.

Homebuilders (XHB+1.28%) continue to underperform, and financials have at best begrudgingly participated in the latest upswing (XLF+2.36%). Clearly, the weaker US Dollar (DXY-0.80%) has created demand for commodity stocks, with basic materials (XLB+2.88%) and oil-related stocks (OIH+2.88%; XLE+2.32%) in high demand Tuesday.

As we approach the three-year anniversary of the all-time high in the S&P (October 7, 2007) it certainly feels as though the government will be successful in their obsession to inflate asset prices. The government has green-lighted all money managers to come together and put some lipstick on this pig and move it higher.

Who are we to argue with The Tape?

At the risk of being Debbie Downer, if the US Dollar goes into free fall the best laid plans of the central planners could unravel quickly. Those wanting to keep partying while the punch bowl remains full will want to use stops or an advanced option strategy to avoid a killer hangover when the spiked beverages run dry.

Have a great evening.

– Patrick Veech

Login or register to post comments Bookmark and Share Comments Re: Bill Cara’s Blog for Oct 5, 2010 Submitted by Les (3485 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 09:06 #70754

That’s pretty sad to say that – gold should be going higher. The latest sign of loose money flowing in unintended (or is it intentional?) places is the mid-term elections – record amounts:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/10/04/101589/tidal…

Login or register to post comments RUBLE UP Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 09:15 #70756

ALOHA!!

Out of all the currencies I follow the Russian Ruble is currently showing the largest percent gain(+0.96%) with the Euro in second place(+0.69%). Meanwhile gold, “the other currency” is leading the pack. For instance the SWISSIE, the fiat paper is up only 0.28% on the USD while gold in Swiss Francs is up 0.73%. Today, people who hold Swissies prefer holding gold to holding their Swiss Francs. The idea that a Swiss Franc is somehow equal to gold is so fallacious, but then huge gigantic quantities of debt based pieces of political paper “promises” have to go somewhere.

As I type the BOJ lowers its rate! Unreal … Maybe the BOJ will eventually lower rates to -1% where the BOJ pays the carry trade not to carry! HA!! The absurdity in the current global fiat monetary system is more and more exposed every day. DEBT DOES NOT EQUAL PROSPERITY and it damn sure will never EQUAL RECOVERY!

Login or register to post comments Bear Season Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 09:19 #70757

Bears probably wish they’d taken the entire year off. A 100 point shake-out followed by an 80 point gap up- that has to be the one move almost no one expected, and therefore another win for the Market.

No skin the game right now, and I’ll have to wait for a reason to trade either way.

Congratulations again to jet, who closed TZA @ 26.90 yesterday for a +5% gain- a gain which would have otherwise entirely vanished overnight.

Login or register to post comments THE FIRST DAY Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 13:05 #70758

ALOHA!!

Well, my predictive powers are so amazing! On the last day of the US Treasury’s FY 2010 I predicted that FY 2011 would be more of the same as FY 2010. In fact more of the same going back to FY 1838!

Well here it is the first day of FY 2011 and HOLY COW! We start off nearly $60BIL in the hole! Not bad for one day … The US Treasury added another $50BIL to the US PUBLIC DEBT on October 1st. The US Treasury also recorded a one day outlay of over $22BIL USD on Social Security. Also Medicare recorded a one day outlay of $15.2BIL USD. They don’t waste a single day getting into more debt!

I love the first day because you actually get to see some “$0” zeros on line items. For instance the NASA line item has “$0” … But that will be fleeting so never fear space scientists as the US Treasury always comes through! The Federal Highway Admin has $0 and so does the Transportation Security Admin. Also the Transfers to Depositories is $0.

Once again my old theme is in play … Not enough tax revenues are deposited in the US Treasury’s Federal Reserve Account to make a difference. More of the same old deficit spending in action, while I will point out its not fixable with income or capital gains tax increases. What is fixable, yet is never mentioned in these “debates”, is cutting government in half, just to start. I will never favor a tax hike on any American so long as the current government is not cut in half.

NET TAX REVENUES – $14.9BIL
TOTAL OUTLAYS – $77.3BIL

So just to cover the first day’s spending taxes would have to increase over 520%. You can tax the rich at 95% and everybody else at 85% and still not break even … the US Treasury would still be in the hole!

Inflation vs Deflation, tax the rich, ObamaCare, Iraq, Gay Marriage, Abortion, Unions, Financial Reform and any other of the myriad of “diversions” that runs through the American voters brain as they stand in the voting booth all pale in comparison to the true issues, the reality, which is government and the US FED, the two largest and most powerfully destructive monopolies operating on Planet Earth today … Both of those two monopolies need some serious and rapid DEFLATION and one needs to be seriously non-existent.

LINK: https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDTSFiles?dir=…

Login or register to post comments OPERANTS Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 09:19 #70759

ALOHA!!

“For every complex and difficult problem, there is a simple solution . . . and it is wrong.”
– H. L. Mencken (1880-1956)

On the napkin were written the following six lines:
1) State the principles upon which actions will be based.
2) Describe the current context.
3) Define the problem specifically and objectively.
4) Target relevant, achievable goals specifically and objectively.
5) Design an explicit plan then put it into play.
6) Measure progress, preferably quantitatively.

“Operants?”

“Behaviors under the control of different consequences. The consequence of an old man’s replying to a pollster’s question? The pollster notes his verbal response. The consequence of an old man’s voting? Government gives him somebody else’s cash. Two, different behaviors under the control of two, different consequences . . . two, different operants.”

LINK: http://0308569.netsolhost.com/wordpress/?cat=34

Login or register to post comments DNA of a gold bubble Submitted by gforce (358 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 09:30 #70760

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/BubbleComparis…

Relative rankings:

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/BubbleComparis…

Login or register to post comments Deflation is dead? Submitted by Grym (2586 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 09:47 #70762

From David Rosenberg today:

“The Investor’s Business Daily runs with a front page article dismissing deflation risks because if you “strip out rent costs, which accounts for 40% of the core CPI, underlying inflation is 2%.” The question is, why exclude rents?”

I can’t remember which Chicago Mayor Daley it was who said this, “Crime is down — except for murder.”

Login or register to post comments TLT not really selling off and volume is very tepid Submitted by nebish (64 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 10:05 #70763

I don’t see money draining out of the bond market yet. Its a little peculiar that we find ourselves once again below 2.5% on the 10 year note, but the S&P rising to near 1150 at the same time.

Looks like a page straight out of the POMO playbook. Retail investors still seeking safety, hence gold and bonds are still being cautiously bought. Yet, equity market is charging ahead thanks to the Fed prop desk.

Personally, I’m hedging here. I’m bullish overall, but I think the market really needs a break here to consolidate and digest. The tape is being pushed and pulled like taffy and soon its going to tear if the Fed doesn’t take its foot of the POMO gas pedal some.

Central banks are just way too involved right now. Japan lowers rates (carry trade back on); China is buying Greek debt in a blatant attempt to goose the Euro (successful, too) and Bernanke is releasing the POMO hounds so the Dems have some shot and keeping the Senate, at least. None of these things has anything to do with fundamentals and all are talking their book. Its bad enough when Buffett and Soros do it, but when the Bank of Japan, Wen and Bernanke do it, it really makes a mess of markets.

Login or register to post comments Re: Bear Season Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1486 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 10:10 #70764 (in reply to #70757)

“that has to be the one move almost no one expected”

Hate to sound smug, but I’ll have to chalk myself up in “almost” category:

[15:35] {Threei} It’s so exceedingly obvious that we must drop from here
[15:36] {Threei} that I strongly suspect it won’t happen
[15:36] {Threei} I mean it will but not before we make one more murderous run-up
[15:37] {Threei} my working assumption:
[15:37] {Threei} any retreat we have during this or next week is a trap,
[15:37] {Threei} shorts get lured in for slaughter
[15:37] {Threei} then sharp rally will eliminate them, and only then we will drop

http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2010/09/sep-30…

Login or register to post comments Re: Bear Season Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 10:25 #70765 (in reply to #70764)

Vad- Well, let me play the role of CNBC talking head here-

‘It’s the third year of the Presidential cycle, November is coming up, and today we’re probably looking at the start of a 20-30% move up into 2011. Vad, you called this move yesterday. We can’t really broadcast the kind of sadistic reasoning you have behind your call, but we know you’re just joking- it’s the Presidential Play here, right?’

Login or register to post comments Re: Bear Season Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1486 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 10:29 #70766 (in reply to #70765)

I, to CNBC talking head: “And they invite you back for this stuff?? Sheeesh..”

🙂

Login or register to post comments Re: Bear Season Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 10:29 #70767 (in reply to #70757)

Yesterday, Art Cashin, IMO, one of the few roses in the thorn bush that is Bubble Vision, said the market is at a critical juncture and the next time they test the 1150-1160 level, if they fail to push thru, we could see some serious downward movement.

Today might be that day. Right or wrong, I do respect Art’s opinions. He doesn’t read from the daily script they give the other clowns.

Login or register to post comments CSCO @ 21.80 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 10:29 #70768

It seemed to show relative strength during yesterday’s sell-off, and I like the pricing here. Or maybe it’s my first play of the third year of the Presidential cycle…

Login or register to post comments Re: Bear Season Submitted by BillySundance (746 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 10:30 #70769 (in reply to #70764)

The chart patterns for S&P and R2K yesterday were amazing. The sharp morning drop and unimpressive consolidation/rebound in the afternoon was incredibly reminiscent of the chart action we saw day-after-day from about May ’08 thru the bottom falling out in Q4 ’08. Yesterday definetly gave the impression of a swift psychological change in the market, only to fool the bears again. A few years ago I would definetly have taken the bait and gotten wrung on a day like today.

Login or register to post comments RBY- Let the fun begin! Submitted by papadynamite (190 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 10:33 #70770

RBY is on the verge of a breakout. Target $6-$7, possibly to $10. depending upon Goldcorp’s appetite. Other suitors mentioned include ABX, Newmont, etc. Current price $4.17
Disclosure-A very large position in shares and Dec. $2.50 calls (cost $1.55).
Mentioned by Bill Cara a few weeks ago when Rob M. decided to cash in his shares.

Login or register to post comments Adding XLF @ 14.55 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 10:39 #70771

Why? I just think the banks will be joining in the ‘murderous run-up.’

Login or register to post comments Why not make it 1 trillion dollars! Submitted by bobbyo (583 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 10:40 #70772

http://tiny.cc/i6e2f
One of the most absurd article I have read in a while. Some excerpts.

“Ex-French trader must pay $6.7 billion for fraud.”
So he is no longer French?

“a punishment he would almost certainly be unable to pay.”
Almost? Well if currencys keep devaluing who knows.

“The damages are also suspended pending any appeal, so Kerviel wouldn’t be ordered to pay right away.”
Good thing since he might have to pay a penalty for cashing in his 5.6 billion dollar IRA early.

Bob

Login or register to post comments Spiking the punch with BAC @ 13.29 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 10:46 #70773

If I’m drinking the Koolaid, it may as well be spiked.

Login or register to post comments Who turned on all the green lights? Submitted by Les (3485 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 10:51 #70774

check out the futures board lighting up like its St Patricks day.
Free money from Japan and the Fed getting all the little boy and girl traders excited? It’s like Christmas has come early this year. Oops I notice Rudolph the red nose $ has the shiny colour of blood in the corner. Wonder how far they squeeze the bears…

AttachmentSize futures 123.53 KB Login or register to post comments INTC Vintage 1921 (19.21) Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 10:52 #70775

If they pull me over for a DUI, it’s going to be for the good stuff.

Login or register to post comments A Ton of Supply this morning Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 10:55 #70776

I noticed large volume figures on the asks over the last 30 minutes. Question is, was that the smart money?

Login or register to post comments Re: RBY- Let the fun begin! Submitted by Bill Cara (1810 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 11:25 #70777 (in reply to #70770)

papadynamite,

You made a good decision. In previous blogs and the WIR I stated flat-out that I believed there was huge value in these shares. For the record, I have a significant 25% portfolio weighted position in RBY.

Today Rob McEwen collects his C$190 million for his shares. That was an easy secondary offering to broker.

Login or register to post comments Today’s POMO Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 11:30 #70778

$5.19 billion

http://tinyurl.com/28gozpk

Login or register to post comments Reaching for 11k Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 11:43 #70779

I think they take it up to DJIA 11000 and keep it there.

Login or register to post comments Gartman’s Sermon on the Gold Mountain Submitted by Bill Cara (1810 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 11:51 #70780

Quote:

“. . .we shall urge the greatest of caution upon everyone, everywhere regarding gold. It is not just over-extended to the upside; it is hyper-extended. It is not just overbought; it is hyper-overbought. We cannot strongly enough urge everyone to avoid buying gold here and we shall go so far as to suggest that those who are long begin the process of quietly heading for the exits and to reduce their positions to the most minimal ‘insurance’ positions possible. Everyone should have perhaps 5% of their liquid assets in gold, but at this point anything beyond that level is excessive.”

–Dennis Gartman, September 29 2010

Obviously, Dennis and I don’t see eye to eye. But, really, I found this “extreme alert” humorous.

Login or register to post comments Re: Reaching for 11k Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 12:01 #70781 (in reply to #70779)

On the S&P it looks like they’re desperately trying to breach 1160 but are getting beaten back.

Maybe the next push gets it?

Or more POMO tomorrow.

Login or register to post comments Re: Bear Season Submitted by teamonfuego (2192 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 12:06 #70782 (in reply to #70767)

Art Cashin seems like a good guy but he’s a little to kooky for me. He brings up moon cycles and random stuff that has no bearing on the markets too often for me to give his comments much thought. I do, however, pay attention to guys like Jeff Saut.

Login or register to post comments Re: Bear Season Submitted by Learner2 (42 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 12:07 #70783 (in reply to #70769)

Observations
1. After the Japanese intervened to weaken the Yen, it is right back at 83.125. The tables that Bill posted showed that when it dipped below 84, that was a rare level that Japan always defended.

2. Europe needs a lower Euro to salvage the PIIGS. The Euro at 1.38 is going to reek havoc on those economies and quickly.

3. QE2 is going to have a lot of unintended consequences. As the dollar weaken, commodities go up. Gasoline in the Dallas area has risen from $2.38/gal to $2.65 in a quick easy 6 days. So we are going to have $3 gasoline and a Dow 12,000 for the election? As the US imports so much energy, how is this not going to defeat/overwhelm QE2? Another thought is the US$ will become the favorite for the carry trade and export inflation to all the Asian economies.

4. How does punishing the people who made many of the right decisions (lived below their means, saved for retirement) not come back to haunt us? A boomer that wants to retire sees that $1mil in savings brings in a cool $500/year income.

I don’t think this is going to end well.

Login or register to post comments Re: Gartman’s Sermon on the Gold Mountain Submitted by Milesquare (99 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 12:25 #70784 (in reply to #70780)

Bill

Todd Harrison at Minyanville provided this chart today

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/buzzbanter/cha…

Gold got a long way to go to catch prior bubbles….but it does have the potential to do it (like it did 1973-1980)

AttachmentSize bubble_chart.doc 121.5 KB bubble_chart.doc 121.5 KB Login or register to post comments H.R.2378 and the coming trade war – an overview Submitted by Les (3485 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 12:41 #70785

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,7…

Login or register to post comments Re: CSCO @ 21.80/ Closed @ 22 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 12:51 #70786 (in reply to #70768)

Login or register to post comments Re: Adding XLF @ 14.55/Closed @ 14.70 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 12:56 #70787 (in reply to #70771)

Login or register to post comments everything up Submitted by davefairtex (2293 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 12:56 #70788

Well today’s everything up is mostly about the US dollar going down. I think with continued low volume (and with much of the volume coming from market-neutral HFT) the big shops can push the S&P 500 around, and they probably took the opportunity of the non-ISM report being modestly above expectations to do that – gunning the stops of all the bears who shorted recently and had a stop above friday’s high.

Now that the euro has breached its old high, I have to wonder how much longer this can go. I guess right now the speculative bad dollar news in the offing (“we’re really about to print money”) trumps the actual bad news in euro land (“PIGS spreads are 400 basis points above German bonds and climbing”). One wonders how long that will last. I’m watching the euro MACD on the daily chart for clues. The euro MACD is gradually heading down, but as long as that euro keeps climbing, it seems like SPX will do so as well – although percentage-wise, gold, silver, and oil are leading the way.

Bernanke will get the CPI to remain positive for sure – but the prices that go up won’t be in the asset classes he’s hoping for. Isn’t that just how life is?

Gold and silver’s spike up today seem absurd. Are they going vertical? How long does that kind of move last? (FD: long PM and watching with amazement)

Login or register to post comments Re: Spiking the punch with BAC @ 13.29/ Closed @ 13.50 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 12:57 #70789 (in reply to #70773)

Login or register to post comments Re: CSCO @ 21.80/ Closed @ 22 Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 12:59 #70790 (in reply to #70786)

ALOHA!!

HUmmmm …

Login or register to post comments Re: H.R.2378 and the coming trade war – an overview Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 12:59 #70791 (in reply to #70785)

ALOHA!!

A closer look at the fine print also reveals that the draft legislation is far from harmless. The bill calls for the US Department of Commerce to start imposing — even without approval by US President Barack Obama — punitive tariffs on certain countries. The initiative specifically targets countries that have “a fundamentally undervalued currency,” “persistent global current account surpluses” and very large currency reserves — in other words, China.

Hummmmm … we get what we vote for …

If you tell your biggest creditor “to go to hell” then they will make sure you get there! It is amazing to me that anyone over at the US Congress can accuse foreigners who buy our Treasuries and Agency debt of “currency manipulation”. EYES WIDE SHUT! I wonder why gold and SILVER is up so much?

Login or register to post comments Re: H.R.2378 and the coming trade war – an overview Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 13:01 #70792 (in reply to #70785)

ALOHA!!

Oops ..

Login or register to post comments Re: Gartman’s Sermon on the Gold Mountain Submitted by Telestar3d (422 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 13:08 #70793 (in reply to #70784)

Gold/Silver vs 50 Historical Bubbles

http://content.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/fol…

Login or register to post comments Re: Reaching for 11k Submitted by goldbug58 (128 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 13:08 #70794 (in reply to #70781)

Is there more POMO tomorrow? I was under the impression, possibly mistaken, that this afternoon’s action was it for a while, like for 5 days?

Login or register to post comments “Is there more POMO Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 13:18 #70795

“Is there more POMO tomorrow?”

One good POMO deserves another:

http://tinyurl.com/2wpacf6

—–

“You can fool some of the people all the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on.” – George “Dubya” Bush

Login or register to post comments Re: “Is there more POMO Submitted by goldbug58 (128 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 13:20 #70796 (in reply to #70795)

Got it, thanks. Still holdin’ ye VXX?

Login or register to post comments The War Of 1160 Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 13:22 #70797

Looks like the bears are losing the battle but rumor has it they’ve coaxed Saint Patrick Roy out of retirement to defend the goal. Does he still have it?

Bernanke shoots……….

Login or register to post comments Re: “Is there more POMO Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 13:25 #70798 (in reply to #70796)

Indeed I am.

Tucked away for the next crisis. If it drops to 15, I’ll add.

Login or register to post comments POMO Submitted by Hammer1 (55 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 13:32 #70799

Another POMO tomorrow should get rid of most of the shorts…will probably shoot up another 100-200 to 11,000. Holding some short etfs wondering if I should take some more pain but I think POMO will pummel me…

Login or register to post comments Re: POMO Submitted by davefairtex (2293 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 13:35 #70800 (in reply to #70799)

Rather than focus on POMO I’d look at the Euro. If it continues up, to my mind, so will the SPX.

Login or register to post comments Soros says eurozone deflationary spiral Submitted by Bill Cara (1810 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 13:36 #70801

Obviously Soros thinks the Euro will soar as Germany forces other countries in the region to tighten their belts and that, at the same time the Fed’s Evans is calling for massive loosening in the US, is causing gold and silver to soar.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-05/soros-say…

Login or register to post comments Re: POMO Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 13:40 #70803 (in reply to #70799)

“I think POMO will pummel me…”

Then again, maybe that’s what they want you to believe. I’m holding 2X long ETF’s UXI & UYM. They’re both up over 5% today…..trying to decide whether to sell or hold.

Login or register to post comments Gold not a record highs in all currencies Submitted by SiO2 (467 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 13:49 #70804

It is quite interesting that gold is still not at new highs in other currencies, for example in Brazilian Reais (live tracking: http://nexalogic.com/gold.html)

After nearly 2 years, it is still in negative territory (-3.4%, 22 months later). The Financial entertainment media will not say this of course.

It’ all relative, a game of which major currency is devalued more.

Brazil BTW, just announced doubling of the income tax for fixed income for foreigners.

Login or register to post comments taking profits, selling all Submitted by baz22 (1408 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 13:50 #70805

keeping a few core bio’s…

Login or register to post comments The “Fall” Of Recovery Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 13:55 #70806

Seeing as the Summer of Recovery was such a big success, we now have the Fall of Recovery.

Saks to Close Two More Fifth Avenue Stores:
http://tinyurl.com/2wkchty

Ford To Cut 175 Lincoln Dealers:
http://tinyurl.com/248s6wy

——

“Make No Mistake: We Are Headed In The Right Direction” – Barack Obama

Login or register to post comments Re: The “Fall” Of Recovery Submitted by Learner2 (42 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 14:01 #70807 (in reply to #70806)

Talbots reaffirmed its third-quarter profit forecast in the range of 22 cents to 28 cents a share, in-line with analysts’ estimates.

Management also outlined its three-year business plan, which includes shuttering up to 100 stores, turning its focus to its outlet business.
—–
“Make No Mistake: We Are Headed In The Right Direction” – Barack Obama

Login or register to post comments Re: INTC Vintage 1921 (19.21)/ Closed @ 19.14 Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 14:05 #70808 (in reply to #70775)

Good example of why it pays to diversify…

Login or register to post comments Re: The “Fall” Of Recovery Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1486 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 14:11 #70809 (in reply to #70806)

Let me guess: to be followed by The Winter of Recovery?

I dare not look farther in the future…

Login or register to post comments Not everything is up? Submitted by gforce (358 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 14:19 #70810

POT FEED SEED CAGC

Login or register to post comments Re: Bear Season Submitted by Grym (2586 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 14:22 #70811 (in reply to #70782)

TOF,

I have always taken Art’s comments like “moon cycles” as tongue in cheek. He has a very dry sense of humor, I believe. I take his years of experience as a good sense sort of thing.

Login or register to post comments Buying TZA Submitted by jet8400 (71 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 14:46 #70812

The last Pomo day with the same maturity length of today’s POMO was Sept 20th and the S&P closed up 17 points, 2 points off the high. The last POMO day of tomorrow’s maturity lenth was Sept 22nd, S&P down 5 points at the close. Buying more at 24 and cutting losses at 23.70. Last weeks insider trading activity and no POMO days next week keeps me leaning toward lower. Have to think jobs data will be the deciding factor for the next couple weeks.

**Correction- No POMO for at least a week after tomorrow.

Login or register to post comments Re: make it 1 trillion dollars! – can you spell “scapegoat”? Submitted by jock (591 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 14:30 #70813 (in reply to #70772)

Obvious, Kervell operated on his own. The bank’s bosses didn’t MIND the bonuses the flowed upstream, but they also didn’t DO the dirty deed. So, they’re scott free!

The French media calculated that, at his current salary it would take him 177,000 years to pay his new debt. LOL

Login or register to post comments Re: make it 1 trillion dollars! – can you spell “scapegoat”? Submitted by jock (591 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 14:31 #70814 (in reply to #70772)

Obvious, Kervell operated on his own. The bank’s bosses didn’t MIND the bonuses that flowed upstream, but they also didn’t DO the dirty deed. So, they’re scott free!

The French media calculated that, at his current salary it would take him 177,000 years to pay his new debt. LOL

Login or register to post comments Yay SEC, you found the cause of troubles Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1486 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 15:06 #70815

Get out those pitchforks, tar and feathers. Make our marketplace healthy (sarcasm mode off)

14:57:38

SEC’s Schapiro: regulator looking closely at high frequency trading; waiting upon a report from an advisory panel – TV interview (related XLF)

Login or register to post comments Rob McEwen on BNN Submitted by KillBear (19 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 15:07 #70816

I’m stunned no one on this board has mentioned Rob McEwen’s appearance on Canada’s BNN today.

http://tinyurl.com/2927nsa

Login or register to post comments Canadian dollar heading to $1.15 US? Submitted by Dave M (114 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 15:10 #70817

According to RBC chief economist, it will next year. Guess I’ll be going down to do some shopping.

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/870761–is-our-do…

Login or register to post comments Re: Rob McEwen on BNN Submitted by Dave M (114 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 15:12 #70818 (in reply to #70816)

Let me guess – he’s calling for $5000 gold. Or is it up to 10,000 now?

Login or register to post comments Yesterday ADBE after close? Submitted by jet8400 (71 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 15:34 #70819

Does anyone know what caused the sell off in the extended hours? There were ask and bid prices close to 25.

Login or register to post comments Re: Bear Season Submitted by Bill Cara (1810 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 15:38 #70820 (in reply to #70811)

Why does nobody here believe in moon cycles? I do.

Ask any medical professional who works in an emerg dept what happens during a full moon. Full house!

Login or register to post comments Re: Bear Season Submitted by jet8400 (71 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 15:44 #70821 (in reply to #70820)

Can’t rule it out. Even if it’s nothing spiritual, it could be due to the brightness of the night having an affect on behavior. I don’t use it but if someone can and make money off it. Well done sir.

Login or register to post comments Re: Rob McEwen on BNN Submitted by Bill Cara (1810 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 15:45 #70822 (in reply to #70818)

Dave M,

I told everybody earlier today. Rob is collecting his C$190 million bank draft from the brokers today for selling his RBY shares. Maybe he’ll invest some more in VG Gold (VG.TO) — it’s already up 20% today. I have a 5% portfolio weighted position. I also have a 16% weighting in UXG and a 25% weighting in GDXJ and 25% position in RBY. RBY will be ok. Rob likes it a lot — just couldn’t buy control.

About his enthusiasm for much higher gold prices, I think everybody today can (or should be able to) see the basis for that in what central banks are doing.

Login or register to post comments USD Submitted by NYUGrad (2872 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 16:04 #70823

http://bit.ly/cZFLKu

At today’s % loss, this race will only last 55 trading sessions from $77 to reach $45, if the race to devalue continues uninterrupted.

Login or register to post comments Re: Yay SEC, you found the cause of troubles Submitted by davefairtex (2293 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 16:09 #70824 (in reply to #70815)

Vad, even paranoids have enemies. The allegations I’ve read of “someone” firing off huge numbers of bids in a short period of time that just happen to slow down the exchange servers that provide quotes for a particular market – well, those sorts of things do seem bad to me. If true the SEC should come down on them hard.

That sort of firm could be considered a “very high frequency” trading firm. Too high frequency, in that sense.

Basically attacking an exchange server using a denial of service “bid” packet flood seems wrong to me. While I’m not expecting someone to put a bid into the market so as to lose money, I do expect them to operate as reasonable members of the community and from what I’ve read, some firms are not doing so.

I think there are some bad things going on. I’m in favor of investigating.

Login or register to post comments Re: Yay SEC, you found the cause of troubles Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1486 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 16:17 #70825 (in reply to #70824)

I am yet to read any single explanation why would they want to slow down the exchange. Just what practical use of that could be?

There is a lot of innuendo and witch hunt – not much in terms of firm data though. Meanwhile, HFT being bad seed seems to be a foregone conclusion. Just as day traders were guilty in tech boom.

Investigation is good – unbiased one, not designed to confirm preconceived notion.

Login or register to post comments Re: Rob McEwen on BNN Submitted by goldbug58 (128 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 16:22 #70826 (in reply to #70822)

Raised a Toast to your spot-on call at 1350 gold, by the way; also smoked a cigar, not that I have much to celebrate; Hoyo de Monterrey Epicure No. 1, Havana; there are some advantages to Europe, even if they are 11.30 Euro a stick.

Login or register to post comments SILVER LININGS Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 16:48 #70828

ALOHA!!

HOLY … POS up practically $1 … I have not seen a single day explosion like that in years. Somebody’s covering … I can understand that as the POG heads higher more and more “liability-phobes” will look to silver as a hedge against the gargantuan global DEBT LIABILITIES that back fiat money.

What happened? Where has the “store of value” in a USD gone. In the 1970s there was the saying that a USD was as good as gold. Now it isn’t even as good as silver! It is, though, as GOOD AS DEBT!

Login or register to post comments Re: Gartman’s Sermon on the Gold Mountain Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 16:53 #70829 (in reply to #70780)

ALOHA!!

Gartman is yet another of the multitude of “gurus” that infest TV with their sheer ignorance. Had anyone listened to him in 2001 they would have missed a 500%+ gain … a nine year “buy and hold”. What return did Gartman’s Treausries get him the last nine years? From what I have seen of the guy over the past many years he has been more a mouthpiece for the bullion banks and their COMEX paper gold. He probably has a mansion in the Hamptons right next to Jamie Dimon(JPM)! That’s JPM or OPM …

Login or register to post comments Taking an after-hours flyer on TZA Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 16:53 #70830

Two allotments- 24.4x and 24.3x…

Login or register to post comments Re: Gartman’s Sermon on the Gold Mountain Submitted by tbar (158 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 17:11 #70831 (in reply to #70829)

http://www.businessinsider.com/dennis-gartman-is-a…

price once again is the ultimate adjudicator.

Login or register to post comments Re: RBY- Let the fun begin! Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 17:59 #70832 (in reply to #70770)

ALOHA!!

Well, if you have been holding RBY over the past year then you haven’t had any fun yet …

LINK: http://tinyurl.com/2f8ngju

The leverage sitting in PMI GOLD(PMV:TSXV) once unlocked will far outperform anything ROB can offer. The time to leverage RBY to the hilt was back in Nov 2009, when the share price was $0.75 per share. The time to leverage UXG was the same day when ROB announced he was CEO. That was the day I was buying it up to $0.72 … Buying maximum leverage means taking on maximum risk … But sometimes there are opportunities when you can leverage with very little risk as was the case when ROB announced he was CEO of US GOLD. That was a major opportunity. Gurus are gurus and he is one, but even gurus over an extended time frame can under perform. So if you follow ROB around then I am not sure why nobody talks about another company he is in PROPHECY(PCY:TSXV). I own no ROB shares now, but I used to in spades …

MEXICO
Then I also need to point out the political troubles in Mexico that are now looking like they are ready to explode. We all hear about the drug cartels and their street gangs doing battle, but is it all that simple? I would say it is deeper than that. I have long had a relationship with Mexico and Mexican nationals who still live in Mexico and what I am hearing from them in Guadalajara is disturbing. Also my brother travels to Mexico frequently on business, mainly to Mexico City, and he now has to have armed guards with him from airport to hotel to office and back. I can only imagine what other foreigners must go through when they are in outlying areas.

Worth a read is this article from the NEW YORKER …
LINK: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/05/31/1005…

I do not see Mexico’s problems easing any in the near future, just as I do not see America’s either, so I think Americans will become more protective of those jobs Mexicans do under the table. If the killings in Mexico continues then we will see more illegals coming to America not for jobs but for perceived safety.

I am just being on the cautious side of buying more companies with mining in Mexico. In fact I have not bought any Mexico companies in a long time as I have moved out to Australia and Ghana mainly.

Not by coincidence Richard Maybury did an extensive study on Mexico in his October EWR. Here are some facts:

– Phoenix abductions now over 1,000 per year.
– Since 2007 28,000 Mexicans have died.
– Mexico gangs now operate in 231 US cities.
– Transparency International Corruption Index has Mexico at 3.3, between Russia and China.
– Index Of Economic Freedom scores Mexico at 41, worse than Botswana and Slovakia.
– Sinaloa gang controls parts of Mexico the same size as Rhode Island, Delaware, New Hampshire and New Jersey. The gang leader is rated by FORBES as number 41 on the list of the World’s Most Powerful People. This gang has operations in 78 US cities.

As Maybury points out this is going beyond just “drug territory”! He actually sees it as the beginning of civil war in Mexico and he believes this will bleed over into the USA, which it already has and as it did in Pancho Villa days. At some point the US Military will actually have to defend our borders once more. There are many more reasons to discard NAFTA than meets the eye …

None of this bodes well for mining companies in Mexico …

Login or register to post comments Another brick in the wall Submitted by gforce (358 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 17:47 #70833

Will history repeat itself?

http://www.businessinsider.com/pro-investors-have-…

Login or register to post comments Re: Rob McEwen on BNN Submitted by Rich (36 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 17:47 #70834 (in reply to #70822)

Sept. 29, VG & Lexam (LEXEF.pk) agreed to combine. Lexam has doubled since then, now 1.09

Login or register to post comments Car bomb explodes outside Ireland bank Submitted by NYUGrad (2872 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 18:00 #70835

http://yhoo.it/cqBHts

“Moody’s considers dowgrade of Irish debt”
http://bit.ly/9eUF0d

Login or register to post comments The forever recession Submitted by gforce (358 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 19:09 #70836

http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2010/09/th…

Books to consider:

You need to click on Seths head, then follow the link to a listing of his books:

http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/

Also interesting from Seth:

http://www.sethgodin.com/sg/docs/brainwash.pdf

Login or register to post comments Re: Another brick in the wall Submitted by BillySundance (746 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 18:23 #70837 (in reply to #70833)

gforce –

Honestly, only one of those five points noted on the chart look like a conclusively good short entry – that being the late-2007 occurence. The first two occurences you might have gotten some moderate gains 10% or so from shorting if you were nimble and avoided getting shaken out but ultimately you were shorting into a bull market and would have been crushed for holding. The fourth occurence was definetively not a good short trade. The fifth occurence was pretty good if you of course covered in May/June/July-ish.

Only one of the five detected a long-term change in market direction.

Finally, if I did believe in this indicator, my next question would be – what is the suggested hold period for a trade based on this indicator? That certainly isn’t clear here. (I.E. if you did short in late-2007, the previous occurences would not have suggested an ideal period to hold the trade on).

Not trying to kill the messenger, just to demonstrate how I would evaluate that indicator (which is suggested to be insightful/reliable by the article). I would also want at least 15-20 more data points before I began looking into it.

With that said, as far as indicators are concerned, I did enjoy Hulbert’s article that someone posted yesterday regarding performance during 3rd years and the effect of the Congressional gridlock situation. I’ll post it again for those who missed:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mid-term-election…

(sorry, problems w/ tinyurl at the moment)

Login or register to post comments Re: RBY- Let the fun begin! Submitted by papadynamite (190 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 18:35 #70838 (in reply to #70832)

I actually picked up the shares on 9/22/2010 at $4.00. The options I got this past week.

Login or register to post comments Re: Rob McEwen on BNN Submitted by Dave M (114 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 18:56 #70839 (in reply to #70822)

Bill, I understand your points, but it seems everyone is piled on the same side of the lifeboat now. I had a cab driver the other day telling me get into gold. I expect within weeks it will be on the cover of Time or Newsweek. Long term I am bullish on gold. Short term, I think a correction is overdue.

Login or register to post comments Re: RBY- Let the fun begin! Submitted by Dr. Strangelove (770 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 22:04 #70840 (in reply to #70832)

kaimu –

“None of this bodes well for mining companies in Mexico …”

Well, with over 43% of SLW’s 2010 forecast silver stream production coming from six mines in Mexico, it has crossed my mind that the country risk is high for this favorite investment. On the other hand, a drug cartel with billions of illicit pesos that morphs into a revolutionary insurgency would be loath to make big miners flee the country and shutdown operations. Think Chavez without Exxon or, um, Castro without Gazprom That’s just not good business and, as we know from the casino industry in Las Vegas, gangsters are not stupid when it comes to corporate relationships.

Alernatively, political risk in Australia in the form of a massive tax grab generated havoc overnight for the big miners until the political leadership was voted out.

Which has more risk: Business savvy thugs or greedy politicians? Tough call although Austrialia is obviously out of the woods now on the tax issue.

FD: Holding 6,000+ shares of SLW

Login or register to post comments a possible sign for shorting the market Submitted by DavidV (32 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 19:42 #70841

I looked closer at the $USD index chart:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&…

and figured that if $USD rises above $78 this week then I’ll open new shorts and/or buy puts on the market (I am currently net long). Also, I placed a tight stop under all my CEF, at $17, heeding David Rosenberg’s observation about the net long speculative position in gold being near all time high.

Login or register to post comments REDF/SIFY: The Untouchables Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 20:10 #70842

http://tinyurl.com/njomq7

What’s ‘working’ in this market? The untouchables- as in ‘I wouldn’t touch that stock with a ten-foot pole.’ Are these Indian internet companies about to move up in the caste system? Personally, I doubt it.

Login or register to post comments tob, Submitted by baz22 (1408 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 21:02 #70843

nice article.. note reference to T-DM1… http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE69419V20101005

Login or register to post comments The cold truth Submitted by DavidV (32 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 21:19 #70844

The consumer demand for discretionary durable goods purchased through the Internet is not looking very healthy recently:

http://www.consumerindexes.com/index.html

Previous history shows that all injections of government liquidity have only a temporary effect, and once that liquidity works its way through the system, no traces of it remain and we are back to the real economy as it was before the injections. In the view of the mounting government debts, I suspect the government liquidity injections won’t last much longer. Hence, at some point in the not-so-distant future (say within a year and maybe much sooner) the market WILL have to stare at the cold truth, and then we’ll have a major leg down in the stock market.

Login or register to post comments GPS/INTC/V/WFC- Easy Double SF Giants Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 21:40 #70845

On the other hand, what hasn’t been working well are stocks which have (IMO) great prospects once the economy takes off, including a few based in the Bay Area.

I’ll go on record as saying these four more or less double in price by October 2011:

GPS 37
INTC 38
V 150
WFC 52

Login or register to post comments SPY big picture Submitted by NYUGrad (2872 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 21:42 #70846

http://bit.ly/910J5u

Login or register to post comments Kaimu Your Mexican rant is crap. Submitted by bobbyo (583 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 22:04 #70847

Stephan, Your fear mongering about Mexico is a bunch of B.S. You need to stop disseminating that Teabaggers weekly and Minuteman monthly propaganda. Not every Mexican is trying to slit your throat. First off PHOENIX is not in Mexico. It is in another third world country called ARIZONA. Last time I checked on the map it seems to be claimed by another country called the USA. In addition I travel across the border on a monthly basis to the epicenter of this so called War on Drugs. Sure I take extra precaution in border towns; Agua Prieta, Nogales, Juarez and Tijuana, but I always have the thirty years I have been going there. Yet it is the same precaution I would take in any Urban center in the United States. Once past the border towns the cities in the interior of Mexico are much safer than any large urban center in the United States. Here is a story for perspective. http://tinyurl.com/MEXICO-murder.
Another interesting factoid. South Africa has nearly 4 times the murder rate as Mexico, but some how it was deemed safe enough to host an international event called the world cup? Where is the disconnect here.
Bob

Login or register to post comments Re: RBY- Let the fun begin! Submitted by Ross (365 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 22:05 #70848 (in reply to #70832)

Ah Mexico.

Did I read somewhere today that Mexico sold $1 Bil. of 100 year bonds? If so that might be the short of a lifetime.

FWIW, the S$P hit my 1160 target. I’m now MIA. You guys take it on from here.

Login or register to post comments Re: Mexican Cartels Submitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 22:13 #70849 (in reply to #70832)

If the US would legalize the production, sale and use of every drug currently smuggled into its borders from Mexico, they could shut down the cartels virtually overnight.

Login or register to post comments “Miami Real Estate News: Foreclosures Halted in Florida” Submitted by NYUGrad (2872 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 22:25 #70850

http://bit.ly/b7JpAE
–quote below—
Breaking Miami Real Estate News: Foreclosures Halted in Florida
BY JAMEY – OCTOBER 4, 2010
POSTED IN: WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW

from Flickr by taberandrew Taber Andrew Bain
I just received a noticed from my brokerage that foreclosures have been halted in Florida by GMAC, Chase Bank and Bank of America.

This is predicated to affect our local market in the following ways:
If you are purchasing an REO it’s important to contact your agent to find out the status of your contract.
Current active and pending REO listed properties status will need to be confirmed.
This could be a really great time to get short sales and regular sales priced correctly & sold.

Login or register to post comments Bank of America delays foreclosures in 23 states Submitted by NYUGrad (2872 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 22:38 #70851

http://bit.ly/9UqcA5

“A document obtained Friday by the Associated Press showed a Bank of America official acknowledging in a legal proceeding that she signed up to 8,000 foreclosure documents a month and typically didn’t read them.

The official, Renee Hertzler, said in a February deposition that she signed 7,000 to 8,000 foreclosure documents a month.

“I typically don’t read them because of the volume that we sign,” Hertzler said.

Comment: So they didnt read the mortgage apps prior to approving and now they are not reading them while foreclosing. You couldnt make this stuff up.

Login or register to post comments Unemployed? Have The Taxpayers Pay Your Mortgage Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 23:13 #70852

http://tinyurl.com/269zyb2

——

Want a really scary Halloween mask?
http://tinyurl.com/2d57cqg
http://tinyurl.com/6auked

Login or register to post comments Re: Bear Season Submitted by Ross (365 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 23:03 #70853 (in reply to #70820)

I must agree with Bill about the howling full moon phenom. Do I believe in cycles? You betcha.

Which begs the question regarding commodity cycles. I lived during the last one from about 1966 through 1982 or so. Depending on the commodity, it was two steps foreward and one back. I watched sugar go from 3 cents a pound to 60 cents in the early 70’s. Raw rubber (think radial tires) didn’t take off til the late 70’s. Metals were all over the board depending on whether or not they were industrial or had a Bunker Hunt mint mark. But it all pretty much ended in the early 80’s.

I guess my point is that commodity cycles seem to endure from 16 to 22 years. The markets begin discounting the top 2 to 3 years in advance. Mr. Market somehow always verifies Mr. Graham and Mr. Dodd when it comes to discounting the future.

Short story. I’ll be edging towards the bar room door around 2016 before someone yells fire. By the end of the next commodity cycle, you do not want to be invested in any country south of the Rio Grande. Throw in Russia and some S.E. Asia countries as well.

Completely off topic but I find this humorous. Today I was tinkering around with replacing parts on my log splitter and decided to junk it in favor of a new 22 ton mediam duty one on sale at Tractor Supply. I got it home and noticed the tag on the 190cc Briggs motor. It proudly stated that the engine was EPA compliant for low emissions in all 50 states…! It pleased me no end to know that the machine that I use to split wood that I burn in my stove is not contributing much CO2 to the atmosphere…………I’m still laughing!!!

Login or register to post comments Re: GPS/INTC/V/WFC- Easy Double SF Giants Submitted by Illini (449 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 23:05 #70854 (in reply to #70845)

Intel @ 38. You must be dreaming.

Login or register to post comments Moral healing Submitted by gforce (358 comments) on Tue, 10/05/2010 – 23:45 #70855

http://changethis.com/manifesto/74.02.ReinventingE…

Login or register to post comments BOJ or Bernanke POMO? Submitted by NYUGrad (2872 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 00:07 #70856

Why is every media outlet reporting that BOJ news is why prices went up? when it was probably the larger U.S reaction that reversed the Yen slide and Dollar rise.

What am i missing here? weaker yen = better for japan exports = stronger dollar = lower equity markets. Yet we got the opposite today. So why is everyone saying japan qe is boosting equity prices?

Login or register to post comments Interesting Blog Today Submitted by 4ever (92 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 00:10 #70857

Lots of ideas, speculation, arguments and discussion. Exactly what this blog is all about. Full community involvement. Here’s what I see:

QE to infinity. Currency wars are for real. USA interest rates at or “below” zero from now on.

USA productivity outside of agriculture & defense is pretty much hosed.

Housing is in for big time deflation. Most people unable to afford current prices.

Energy is in for inflation as Asian, African, South American countries continue to expand.

Banks are toast. Mortgage “assets” are imaginary.

Mexican drug cartels are real. All drugs should be legalized. War on drugs was over before it began. You can’t stop people from doing what they want short of locking them up, which is what has happened. Waste of effort and resources.

Most of the tea party candidates don’t seem any better than those currently in office. Careful what you wish for here. We did have some good news – Larry Summers quit or was fired. Maybe more will follow.

Follow Bill’s lead and conentrate on the juniors. The least we could do is support his picks and bid up the prices!

Login or register to post comments Re: RBY- Let the fun begin! Submitted by kaimu (1798 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 01:46 #70858 (in reply to #70840)

ALOHA!!

People can complain all they want about Tea Party stuff, but that has no bearing on what country I leverage my FRNs in. Mexico is corrupt and even in the 1970s when I was surfing up and down the coast all the way to Acapulco I was always witness to a number of corrupt Policia and Federales heisting turistas(gringos) and that includes myself and all of my surfing bros. None of us who surfed Mexico ever got out without being ripped off by government officials in some manner. That is why I always drove a beat up VW bug down there instead of a huge V8 Ford with a Deluxe camper … Going beyond my personal experience of corruption, what should be on the radar of most mining investors, is the various levels of corruption within each country’s government and businesses.

Looking at the CORRUPTION INDEX(CI) for a few countries … This ranks countries on a global basis.

LINK: http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/survey…
ABOUT US LINK: http://www.transparency.org/about_us

2003
South Africa-48
Botswana-30
Ghana-70
Mexico-64
Australia-8
Canada-11
USA-18

2007
South Africa-43
Botswana-38
Ghana-69
Mexico-72
Australia-11
Canada-9
USA-20

2008
South Africa-54
Botswana-36
Ghana-67
Mexico-72
Australia-9
Canada-9
USA-18

2009
South Africa-55
Botswana-37
Ghana-69
Mexico-89
Australia-8
Canada-8
USA-19

While I have but a partial list of all the 150 countries this INDEX covers at TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL(TI) this partial list covers the majority of countries where I have placed mining investments. Out of all these countries MEXICO has fallen off a cliff in terms of corruption levels. Using a pre-Debt Crisis year like 2003 we see Mexico CI(Corruption Index) ranking listed at 64 while in 2009 it is 89, a 25 point drop in six years. Mexico corruption levels have done nothing but drop since 2003 and the CI for Mexico took another huge drop between 2008 and 2009, dropping another 17 points, while some of the other countries I list have even improved, Mexico has not. Look at all the other countries as they stay fairly consistent moving up or down 2 to 3 or maybe 4 ranking points. A 25 point drop is a lot in comparison. In fact it is a moon shot if this data was charted. The most consistent countries in the top three of the index, with the least corruption, are New Zealand, Finland and Denmark.

About TI surveys and indices …
Transparency International (TI) seeks to provide reliable quantitative diagnostic tools regarding levels of transparency and corruption, both at global and local levels.

The annual TI Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), first released in 1995, is the best known of TI’s tools. It has been widely credited for putting TI and the issue of corruption on the international policy agenda. The CPI ranks more than 150 countries in terms of perceived levels of corruption, as determined by expert assessments and opinion surveys.

Transparency International formed an Index Advisory Committee (IAC) in 1996 to consult with on its global corruption measurement tools. The role of the Committee is to provide technical expertise and advice in the development and strengthening of the methodologies used by TI to measure corruption and governance.

The Committee has a consultative role and TI has the ultimate responsibility in terms of decision making. Members of the committee (IAC members) are economists, statisticians, and social and political scientists who provide pro bono advise in the development of the various tools developed by TI. Please click here to see latest list of Members of the Index Advisory Committee and their organizational affiliation. MORE

About National Integrity System(NIS) …
The National Integrity System (NIS) assessment approach provides a framework which anti-corruption organisations can use to analyse both the extent and causes of corruption in a given country as well as the effectiveness of national anti-corruption efforts. This analysis is undertaken via a consultative approach, involving the key anti-corruption agents in government, civil society, the business community and other relevant sectors with a view to building momentum, political will and civic pressure for relevant reform initiatives.

The assessment makes use of the concept of the National Integrity System (NIS), which has been developed and promoted by TI as part of its holistic approach to countering corruption. The NIS consists of the principle institutions and actors that contribute to integrity, transparency and accountability in a society.MORE

IT IS WHAT IT IS …

Login or register to post comments Re: Kaimu Your Mexican rant is crap. – cool your jets, bobbyo! Submitted by jock (591 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 01:47 #70859 (in reply to #70847)

Kaimu makes important points. First, it’s not about “drug gangs” anymore, it’s about 3-5 feuding fiefdoms competing nationwide, and about broad-based organized crime.

There’s a culture of crime. The “narco-corridos” glorify the gangs, and attract many lower-class and disaffected youth into that lifestyle. Check out the lyrics, if you know Spanish.

I correspond with a friend in a town of 5,000 in Sinaloa. Their downtown is not safe as rival gangs engage at will in drive-by shootings. There have been de-capitations within a hundred yards to my friend’s subdivision. About once a week a gangland murder takes place.

This is not Juarez, nor Guadalajara, nor Acapulco, but a small town in the middle of nowhere. And the gov’t troops don’t engage the gangs that rule. Local police are hopeless. To get a feel for how widespread the incidents of violence, check out:

http://www.blogdelnarco.com/

Kaimu is quite right to suggest a threat to mining. Already Brazil has seen a robbery at a mine of $3M in dore bars. Organized crime in Mexico is MUCH more powerful and pervasive than in Brazil.

Re danger at Mexico City airport, there have been LOTS of reports of arriving foreigners being mugged after visiting a cash machine or “casa de cambio”. In Mexico City, it’s common for cabbies to take unsuspecting tourists to cash machines and demand money.

Things are a bit out of control in Mexico. Until there are more signs that the gov’t can come out on top, I think there’s a definite demerit in Mexico’s attractiveness as a mining jurisdiction. To assert this is NOT to rant!

Login or register to post comments Re: Yay SEC, you found the cause of troubles Submitted by Les (3485 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 04:38 #70860 (in reply to #70825)

Vad I did read a reason for slowing down one exchange, so that the same firm would go to another exchange and purchase the same stock with an intention to profit from the price arbitrage, by reselling it on the slowed exchange at a price far more elevated. Slowing one exchange permitted profiteering from said exchange. I believe it was the NYSE that was easily overcome with quotes.

Of course I imagine such arbitrage was attempted prior to the advent of HFT, so HFT is not the bogey and banning it is not a silver bullet. But if quote stuffing was used as a blocking tool to create exchange arbitrage – which is the way I understand it – then this is clearly illegal trading practice.

I imagine you can tell us if this is possible and realistic in its application or just another rant from someone who doesn’t know better…

Login or register to post comments futures 3am – Asia up, Aussie bouncing straight back Submitted by Les (3485 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 02:58 #70861

S&P+2.30 / +0.20%
Level1,157.00
Fair Value1,156.83
Difference0.17
Nasdaq+0.75 / +0.04%
Level2,019.25
Fair Value2,022.34
Difference-3.09
Dow+19.00 / +0.17%
Level10,883.00

traders taking quantitative easing steps in America and Japan for everything its worth? ASX barely stopped to breath before bouncing back in both market and A$. Some serious gapping up in HK, Sth Korea…. Let’s party like it’s 1999.

Login or register to post comments Re: Kaimu Your Mexican rant is crap. – cool your jets, bobbyo! Submitted by bobbyo (583 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 03:53 #70862 (in reply to #70859)

Jock, I get tired of misinformation disguised as facts on this subject. Kaimu did use PHOENIX AZ USA as example number one as showing MEXICO as dangerous. Then you go and say a ROBBERY in a BRAZILIAN Mine is proof that Mexico is dangerous. They are different countries 1000s of miles apart.
You are right about the Corridos and its glorification of “THE LIFE.” Actually it is present in all types of Mexican country style music. Norteno’s, Cumbias, ect. It sadly glorifies the gangsters. Likewise have you watched the GRAMMY awards lately.A video on BET. Take a look at MTV. What do you think LIL WAYNE, Dr. DRE, Fifty cent sing about. These people glorify murder, Rape and slinging dope and they are accepted on mainstream T.V. and are corporate spokesmen. So is our USA “culture of crime” somehow more sanctimonious.
I am sure people get mugged in Mexico city. It is the biggest city in the world and I would guess muggings are not exclusive to there. I do concede that your Friend’s situation is unique to Mexico and for him a great tragedy. If he is an EX-PAT and the situation is so bad he could leave. If he is MEX national he is S.O.L. since we built that great big fence to keep out that violent horde.
Bob

Login or register to post comments Re: Bear Season Submitted by steveo (134 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 04:42 #70863 (in reply to #70853)

Awesome notification!

Login or register to post comments futures 4:30 am – europe gap up galore Submitted by Les (3485 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 04:44 #70864

S&P+3.70 / +0.32%
Level1,158.40
Fair Value1,156.83
Difference1.57
Nasdaq+3.25 / +0.16%
Level2,021.75
Fair Value2,022.34
Difference-0.59
Dow+30.00 / +0.28%
Level10,894.00

French banks up big. Not so auto manufacturers. Euro looking for 139 today. How long before the ECB puts a spanner in the works?

Login or register to post comments futures 6am – let’s squeeze those pesky short traders Submitted by Les (3485 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 06:14 #70865

S&P+4.70 / +0.41%
Level1,159.40
Fair Value1,156.83
Difference2.57
Nasdaq+5.25 / +0.26%
Level2,023.75
Fair Value2,022.34
Difference1.41
Dow+50.00 / +0.46%
Level10,914.00

Yen, Euro, CHF all looking ready to get go higher. ay ay ay.

Login or register to post comments Doubled up, sorry Submitted by Grym (2586 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 07:25 #70866 (in reply to #70849)

Doubled up, sorry

Login or register to post comments Re: Mexican Cartels Submitted by Grym (2586 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 07:15 #70867 (in reply to #70849)

2nd,

“If the US would legalize the production, sale and use of every drug currently smuggled into its borders from Mexico, they could shut down the cartels virtually overnight.”

Amen! And…

The pluses: Empty our prisons, reduced the need to steal for a fix — reducing crime.

The downside: Put the DEA out of business adding to unemployment, put all those ex-cons in homeless shelters, need to admit the War on Drugs was as much a failure as the War on Poverty.

Not going to happen, I’m afraid.

Login or register to post comments Re: Gartman’s Sermon on the Gold Mountain Submitted by Bill Cara (1810 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 07:50 #70868 (in reply to #70831)

tbar, yes price is the ultimate adjudicator.

See current price of the Gartman Fund, at $8.80

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

insert symbol HAG.TO

Trading has been a major challenge for almost all pro investors as well as amateurs, so we should not pick on any one individual. However, Dennis Gartman presents himself as a trading expert on international television programs almost daily and in doing so he needs to back up his extreme commentary with suitable performance, which apparently is lacking.

Login or register to post comments Cara 100 Ratings Changes For POMO Wednesday Submitted by Bull Hunter (1444 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 08:24 #70869

Good morning from Pennsylvania, home of the National League Eastern Division Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

POMO Injection Today – Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase

7:00 – MBA Mortgage Apps -0.2%
7:30 – Challenger Job Cuts -44.1% http://tinyurl.com/39yooso
8:15 – ADP Employment Change (down 39000) http://tinyurl.com/263wpfu
10:30 – Crude Inventories

COSTCO (COST Cara 100) Earnings http://tinyurl.com/2fwc3mr

—–

JCP – FBR Capital Initiates with an Underperform. Target $20.

KO – Coca-Cola reinstated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse. Target $70

KSS – FBR Capital Initiates with a Market Perform. Target $54

TXN – Texas Instruments initiated with a Neutral at Sterne Agee.

Login or register to post comments Re: Cara 100 Ratings Changes For POMO Wednesday Submitted by Les (3485 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 08:44 #70870 (in reply to #70869)

thanks for adding in the econoday stuff on yer daily squawk BH. Saves me the time.

Login or register to post comments battered EQIX Submitted by London (169 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 08:44 #70871

stock EQIX down 25points on very small miss reminds of EDU premarket last week. EDU jumped 10 pts off low premarket for a trade.

Login or register to post comments Re: battered EQIX Submitted by Johnny (836 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 08:52 #70872 (in reply to #70871)

With PE 87.24, perhaps the equity holders were a tad nervous.
J

Login or register to post comments Re: Yay SEC, you found the cause of troubles Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1486 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 08:56 #70873 (in reply to #70860)

Les,

it’s possible in theory, and incredibly inefficient way to make money in practice. It sound simple but it’s not – if such entity successfully slowed down let’s say ARCA, while buying on EDGE, won’t that same slowness impact its own execution when it turns around to re-sell on ARCA? Or, won’t someone take advantage of ARCA slowed down quote while our criminal’s busy buying on EDGE? In other words, it’s a whole new war to fight, in which you also have that same ARCA suddenly becoming interested in your weird and possibly harmful activities.

On top of that – what can it possibly have to do with flash crash? Are all HFT firms involved in quote stuffing or is it one or two bad apples? Is it the only suspicious activity or SEC is looking for something else? Don’t forget that this particular aspect of HFT activities (quote stuffing) is but an example of what can be wrong with it cited in this exchange – scope of SEC and other witch hunters “looking into it” is much wider. Fervor with which they jumped on HFT and involvement of politicians tells me they are very likely to have foregone conclusion and the results will be molded to fit it.

Login or register to post comments Follow the money Submitted by Johnny (836 comments) on Wed, 10/06/2010 – 09:03 #70874

What if members of Congress were seated not by party but according to their major business sponsors?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

Interesting post over at BR’s this morning. It’s easy to see why the sheeple are fleeced by the finance, insurance, union and real estate mobs.
J

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