Weekly Chartology And Q3 Earnings Preview

Tyler Durden's picture Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/09/2010 09:12 -0500

ChartologyInsider Selling

Next week 78% of the S&P companies  will announce their Q3 results, (even as the the ratio of insider selling to buying hits the 5 digit range.) All cynicism aside, here is David Kostin’s advance look at numbers and this week’s complete charts that’s fit to post. In a nutshell from Goldman: “Consensus expects 3Q earnings to be below 2Q actual results for six of ten sectors despite the US economy expanding during the quarter, albeit at a weak pace. We expect positive EPS surprises in 3Q but a restrained market reaction given the strong September rally and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election and prospects for a second round of QE.”

Chartology (pdf):

 

Q3 Advance Look (pdf):

 

AttachmentSize Kostin Q3 EPS.pdf616.75 KB Q3 Preview Kostin.pdf245.35 KB 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 (1 vote)
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by Robslob
on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 09:24
#637709

Who needs earnings?

 

What are earnings…do they have something to do with the economy?

 

Earnings, aren’t they those things that are always “better than expected”?

 

We don’t need no stinkin’ earnings!

 

Enter….Leo…

Login or register to post comments by 99er
on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 09:46
#637734

Chart: RUT

Gartley Bear.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/rut.html

Enjoy your weekend!

Login or register to post comments by Orly
on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 10:29
#637802

The coming round of earnings, while naturally “better than expected,” will be one where the market is in sell-then-news mode.  The rationale behind that may be that companies have made most of their money cutting jobs and taken other cost-cutting measures.  No real profit.

The SPX will churn near these levels, at best, while the greenback will get a leg up on the data versus the Japanese yen.  The world will start to feel more comfortable with the US economy.

With the relative gains in the USD, many Asian players in the stock market who have gotten in with a cheap dollar may now pull their money to the sidelines because with each increasing tick of the USD, US stocks become more expensive for them and their gains will erode accordingly.  The longer the rise in USD, the more sustained will be the drop in SPX.

Once the ball gets rolling, the snap-back from these extremes may be severe.  Be careful.

😀

Login or register to post comments by 99er
on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 10:38
#637817

Chart: ES and ZB

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/es-zb_08.html

Login or register to post comments by Pining for the …
on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 11:06
#637851

Bottom line:  If earnings are strong, market up on “green shoots”.  If earning are weak, market STILL up on ramp jobs and expectation of QE2. We can’t really invest or trade anymore, we can merely place bets on the arbitrary and unknowable future  actions of the Fed, nothing more.

There is no “investing” now.  There is only repeated rolling of the dice until at some unknown time, the artificially inflated balloon pops. Last one out gets left holding the fecal bag.

Login or register to post comments by Lord Peter Pipsqueak
on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 11:54
#637935

Ok we’ve had 99er showing the 99th chart that it is the top,can’t wait for Nic Lenoir’s latest “no this time it really is the top” article.

Good economic news -market goes up,bad economic news market goes up(more QE expected),how the hell will charts predict anything in an economy like that?

Login or register to post comments by Orly
on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 12:36
#638013

In all deference to Nic Lenoir, since the market “topped” at this level, it hasn’t gone anywhere.  It’s just spinning its wheels.  He also said that there is a higher sell-band on the ES that hasn’t been breached yet.

Give the trade time to develop.  Patience, everybody.

Login or register to post comments by 99er
on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 13:38
#638128

Technical analysis is nothing more than a tool to help the investor see the forest for the trees (and to clear one’s head of the crap offered up by Bulls and Bears alike). I’m a relative newbie at this but continue to play with my ruler and crayons in the hope of making my small contribution to the discussion on markets.

Regarding the “top” that I am calling for, note on my recent charts that I have not moved the point even though price action is currently above those levels. This I consider the “noise” of POMO and other actions taken by the Fed and ECB to save their asses from what may soon be their downfall: they are going to get fucked by the very markets they have been screwing for some time now. When real price discovery occurs (as early as Monday), please come back to have another look at my “top.” Thanks.

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