850,000 Or 530,000: What Is The Real Number Of Jobs Created In 2010?

Tyler Durden's picture Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2010 14:30 -0500

BLSBureau of Labor StatisticsGreat Depression

Now that the impact of census hirings is presumably over, one would think it is fair to say that the whole private versus non-private distinction can go away. Because with the census program now netting itself out, as census hirings and firings offsetting, the only thing that matters is private and non-census government hiring. And to say that non-census government hiring is irrelevant, when it is precisely the government’s hiring that has been the only category that is flat or positive for the duration of the second great depression, would be about the equivalent of calling the Hiroshima bomb a modest gust of wind. Which of course has not prevent Obama to completely strip out the government impact on jobs in 2010, when in a speech earlier he told an adoring audience that he has created 850,000 jobs in 2010 (for those who care the clip can be seen here). Which is in essence completely ignoring the impact of the millions, or, as some would say, billions, of non-census government jobs in the economy. What’s more, Obama conveniently forgot to mention that the BLS just revised its trailing 12 month NFP number by 366 earlier today, taking a major Birth/Death biased haircut out of the propaganda numbers. Which is why when adding all YTD NFP numbers (excluding census), and excluding the now revised impact of the 366,000 on a monthly basis (30.5K from from the January-March numbers), one gets a number of 530K jobs, which is about 62% of the number boasted by Obama earlier.

 

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by HarryWanger
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 14:36
#636233

When you’re speaking to an adoring crowd why would you give them anything but the conveniently nicer 850k figure? Although he could have used the 530k number just as easily. Adding jobs is adding jobs. That would be good enough for an adoring crowd.

Login or register to post comments by mynhair
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:11
#636396

Like to see the Jackass speak here…..adoring, my backside.

Login or register to post comments by midtowng
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:23
#636444

If you don’t care about revisions then it doesn’t make a difference.

Login or register to post comments by Tarheel
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 18:26
#636874

Of course Odumba lied to American public. What else would you expect from our Kenyan president?

Login or register to post comments by homersimpson
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 14:38
#636243

Does it matter? The Fed and Wall Street is ramping up the market on the taxpayers’ dime. The unemployment rate can be 15% and the market will still go up with Obama’s blessing.

Login or register to post comments by What_Me_Worry
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 14:44
#636277

He could have easily just said seventy-eleven kajillion jobs were created and no one would have questioned him.  However, had he made a speech that the NFL and DWTS were to be cancelled immediately by executive order then there would be blood in the streets.  Take away the bread and circus and they will clearly riot.

Someone posted the quote by Churchill the other day and it is so true:

“The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter.”

 

Login or register to post comments by percolator
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 14:59
#636353

Spot on What and I love the Churchill quote.

Login or register to post comments by mynhair
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:12
#636399

Insulting GW or ilene is not allowed – 10 Berspanky bucks, please.

Login or register to post comments by tom
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 14:44
#636281

The 366k downward adjustment for April 09 – Mar 10 is bigger than the 336k total b/d adjustments for the same period. There have been another 682k b/d adjustments during April 10 – Sep 10, at least half of which will be going away. Sept 10 employment can’t be more than 200k higher than the trough at Dec 09.

Login or register to post comments by bob_dabolina
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 14:46
#636289

This is pretty standard among politicians.

Where is Ron Paul? I need some truth in my life

Login or register to post comments by MarketTruth
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:50
#636567

Ron Paul was on the first hour of Alex Jones show today. It loop/repeats so you can hear it rebroadcast at http://www.infowars.com/infowars.asx

Login or register to post comments by Goldenballs
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 14:48
#636303

Probably neither.If you measure jobs on decent wage,fulltime hours,high skill level,etc, probably in a minus figure.

Login or register to post comments by Cursive
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 14:59
#636313

What ever happened to Joe Biden’s 500,000 per month?  My concern is on net job creation.  We have fewer employed people today than when he took office.  We’ve got massive excess capacity, employment will not pick up and a gallon of gas will soon be $5.

Login or register to post comments by Azannoth
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:15
#636412

Good thing for them , no1 gives a damn what the Vice Pres sais

Login or register to post comments by Cursive
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 17:27
#636757

Yeah, but $5 a gallon gasoline is a panic starter.  GLTA.

Login or register to post comments by Getagrip
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 20:44
#637082

That’s assuming you can get any at all…70’s all over again. Glad I still have my leisure suit…

Login or register to post comments by firstdivision
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 14:56
#636341

This was entertaining http://dealbreaker.com/2010/10/nassim-taleb-identifies-real-villain-of-the-financial-crisis/

Login or register to post comments by Millennial
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:06
#636377

I got hooah’s coming over later. BTW

 

that reminds me.

 

Does prostitution count as a job or just crime in general? And is it recorded?

Login or register to post comments by bigdumbnugly
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:15
#636410

1) i think that’s one of those jobs that gets counted twice.  once for the initial transaction and then again later when the pimp gets his.

2) you mean recorded as in if you want it on youtube later?  depends on how well you hide the cam i guess.   maybe you’ll end up providing some workplace entertainment to the sec crowd??

Login or register to post comments by Millennial
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 16:37
#636619

no i meant recorded in the bls?

Login or register to post comments by mynhair
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:20
#636428

Just pay the SS taxes and you’re golden.

Login or register to post comments by mynhair
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:10
#636391

Why does everybody insist on getting the sign wrong?

Login or register to post comments by tmosley
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:14
#636406

Government jobs should be subtracted from private sector jobs to give a true reckoning of the state of employment in this country.

Government jobs for the most part are non-productive, the equivalent of digging ditches.  The worst part is that many of them have the job of digging ditches and then forcing private workers to fill them back up so they can conduct business.

At best, government jobs are busy work for welfare recipients.  At worst, they are bouncers for the club we call the economy.  Except they don’t just guard the door.  They prowl around inside as well.  Occasionally they kick out a troublemaker, but for the most part, they kick out people they don’t like, or make their lives miserable.

Login or register to post comments by Azannoth
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:20
#636424

You can get a very distorted picture of the peoples mindset when the only place you sitick around is ZH, the man on the street does not have a better grasp on the economy and politics from a trained monkey, talking sense to them is like teaching a monkey higher math, forget it, the few that have an understanding are like people on the Titanic trying to suspend their dissbelief and hoping rescue will come before the ship goes under

Login or register to post comments by mynhair
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 15:23
#636438

Neighbor has a horse that counts to 5.

Beats Biden…

Login or register to post comments by BrosMacManus
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 21:56
#637190

Great analogy, reminds me of the Cool Hand Luke scene re: Boss Keane’s ditch:

Edit: Govt jobs are the guards, private sector diggin/fillin the ditch.

Login or register to post comments by Getagrip
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 16:57
#636677

Any job that doesn’t create something of tangible value is worthless. 45% of America’s employed work for state and federal government. Have a great day… 

Login or register to post comments by trav7777
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 17:36
#636770

According to the Newt Gingrich article on headline up there a few hours ago, it’s eleventy hundred thousand new jobs.

There are fucking jobs ERRYWHERE, bitchez…Bama didz that

Login or register to post comments by Getagrip
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 18:20
#636857

That’s El Presidente O-bama… How about a little respect for our Muslim leader….

Login or register to post comments by gwar5
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 18:29
#636882

I don’t believe any number coming out of this adminstration.  They all want to massage the numbers, get it… but this one commits fraud and twists arms to make the numbers work.

Login or register to post comments by Everyman
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 21:32
#637150

I sent in a complaint to the BLS on this topic and the continuing revisions of the numbers.  Below is the response, and it was just more governmental agency coverup of the crappy job they are doing.  I sent my response of incredulity back to her and on to my Congressman.

“Dear Sir:   I am writing in response to your email of September 10, 2010 to the Office of the Inspector General, in which you discussed unemployment statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).   Most of your email describes the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims data. These data are published by the Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration (ETA). The BLS has no involvement with the collection of these data or publication of the weekly report and cannot answer questions pertaining to these. More information about these data can be found on the ETA website at http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch.asp. Should you wish to ask questions of someone at ETA, contact information can also be found at the bottom of this webpage.    You also refer to the net birth/death model. The birth/death model is used to produce estimates for the Current Employment Statistics (CES), which is a survey of establishments conducted by BLS that produces statistics on the number of nonfarm payroll jobs by industry . It is not used in any way to generate estimates of UI Weekly Claims or other unemployment estimates. For more information on the birth/death model, please see the CES website at http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm.   Finally, you refer to another measure of unemployment that was 16.7 percent in August, and you claim that the BLS does not report this statistic. This is not correct. The BLS produces a variety of alternative measures of unemployment. The number you reference is also referred to as U-6, and it is published every month in the Employment Situation news release, the same publication that reports the official unemployment rate. This number can be found on the BLS website in  table A-15 of the Employment Situation news release at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.   I hope this helps. Please let me know if you have further questions.   Dori Allard Division of Labor Force Statistics Suite 4675 Postal Square Building 2 Massachusetts Ave NE Washington, DC 20212”

Then why is the “birth/death model” used if even the BLS knows it should not be used in this manner.  I think we have a winner!!!!!

Login or register to post comments by Conrad Murray
on Fri, 10/08/2010 – 23:53
#637329

I got a similar response to my submission for information regarding their BS.  Received it Thursday, and was given three new emails at which my questions are to be directed.  Gonna write those emails this weekend and see what comes of it.  Nice to see someone else involved.  Cheers!

Login or register to post comments by tom
on Sat, 10/09/2010 – 01:59
#637414

I just ran the numbers this way:

1) take the 366k total / 371k private downward adjustment and spread it evenly over Apr 09 – Mar 10

2) make another 341k downward adjustment, which equals half the total of 682k b/d adjustments for Apr 10 – Sep 10, and spread it evenly over Apr 10 – Sep 10. (I subtract only half to allow for the basically valid seasonal component of the b/d model – companies like a lot of things tend to be born in spring/summer and die in autumn/winter.)

I get private employment up 429k so far this year, total employment up 180k. So he only overstated by about 100%. Which I guess is within the expected range for a pol.

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